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Well hopefully he'll be gone by April which he has suggested.
If he doesn't go I'll reevaluate.
Don’t think it’s that simple JB (doubt you do either ;-) )
As we all know, it’s a very flat market as a whole at the moment, even those heavily feted have taken a hit.
I remember SBTX being heavily touted early 2021, climbed to 75p, and now trading 60% lower. Could go through DDDD, TILS etc… in sector. Outside the sector, see more of the same. GGP, 37p down to 14p…could go on, it’s a common pattern…but does suggest there is value at these levels…
Specifically with Orph, personal view - I think the majority of the reduction is symptomatic of the market at the moment, and a number of factors in that…
- There is probably a little truth in the furlough crowd as cited by Orph, but more probably…
- Improvement in FTSE dragged money back - Aim seemed to gain momentum off the back of Covid (Ncyt etc…) and now seeing more restrain.
- Crypto pulling in the get rich quick crowd
- A realisation this isn’t easy - suspect a lot of money has been lost in the last 9 months and some have packed their bags.
- Market concerns - people holding onto cash as see too much risk in the markets. Fed tapering and improving interest rates will add to that.
I do think the lack of adhering to timelines at Orph helped cause problems. Nothing wrong in my view in terms of business performance, can’t really fault it, but they could have understated and over delivered.
There is a void of investor sessions which doesn’t help - think back 12-18 months…LSE, IG, Proactive, Mello, Investormeet etc… there was one every month. If he wanted to crank things up a bit, he could, and reckon CF knows the game inside out so confident he’ll manage this side when he sees fit!
While there have been big sellers I think currently it’s just pi’s / short term trading imv. Know a few folk who need to release funds here, and will always be cash flow needs, divorce, probate, school fees, bigger house etc… which leads to need to sell (however reluctantly).
The lack of POLB growth doesn’t help. If that was 20p now I think Orph would be doing better. Realistically POLB needs significant time given drug dev timelines and is pretty binary (like Sareum, Synairgen etc…)
I try to look at the fundamentals rather than the share price, and all pretty positive there, so pretty pragmatic about it - enough upside news due, lands when it lands…
Enough positive news due, would like a trading update and 24 month strategic outlook mind…
Anyway just my musings
Then you need to sell up and divest Jumbo. You won't need to stay here moaning and your life will no doubt be a lot better. Use you investment on better opportunities that clearly as a 'smart investor' you must have. Your capital will be better employed, no? You will increase your wealth won't you?
This share would be 30p+ if it weren't for Friel constantly telling untruths.
Market doesn't trust him anymore and that's why the share is collapsing.
More confirmation capacity is not an issue, therefore not the bottleneck to growth some peeps will have us suckers believe. :)
The market is underwhelmed by today's RNS because there are no numbers, but there is if you're familiar with historical numbers, and mine appears to be a good jab if you excuse the pun.
https://smallcompanychampion.substack.com/
If anyone likes to invest in Oz corps, have a gander at AVA Risk Group.
No worries on capacity from.me!!! Very happy investor with the great news today. Good luck all.
Nathan,
I am sure you are well aware capacity is not an issue for hVivo. If anyone doubts this, then I suggest they pin their ears back and listen to what CF says when asked. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5BUghTUOzg
"London will be back to normal this year and prices per sq meter will shoot up again."
Have you been to that part of London? If not, go! Its like a ghost town. I pass through there regularly.
Anyway I don't see space as an issue anyway, theres always SGS we can hit up if we need to. Otherwise I fully expect a merger/takeover to happen later this year after approvals have been given and then start spending money. Which given recent published documents by Gov etc, it seems very close now, simply a waiting game. To write human challenge studies into pretty much their future plans and guidance is a massive endorsement for Orph/Hvivo.
Pointless spending cash when theres no immediate need to.
I would also start reading where the Gov are allocating money to, IMO there is funding available to help with the pandemic preparedness which includes the 100 day vaccine plan (human challenge studies a key part of this), theres a plan in place and just trust the process.
So you saying price is down 60% because we won't find a space to do all the work we will likely be signed to do. Are you on crack? Price is what it is and happy with CF leading the ship and happy with my investment. If your not , then sell and go ahead reinvesting in a company that will meet your requirements. Patience is a virtue
No issue?Are you on crack?
The share price has dropped over 60%!
Plenty of different options and if cost of rental space goes up then this can be passed on to end customer. Or they rent rooms in a private hospital, plenty in London, or they look outside of London where prices maybe lower. Not sure.london will return to normal for a whole while yet. Making an issue where there isn't one.
They think its all over - well it isn't now.
Too much bullcarp from the Tories as a deflector to the mess this country is in apart from "party plans".
What % of the worlds popn are still unvaccinated > 50% & an in an inter-connected world = big problem still with us potentially with Covid let alone any other nasties out there.
I'm sorry a plan on the back of an envelope is not something the investment community buy.
London will be back to normal this year and prices per sq meter will shoot up again.
Why not short-term lease of underused hotels, hospital ward or isolation suite not needed for non corona work as minimal risk for general population for flu and rsv. Cheap, available. Many many tens of potential antiviral or therapeutic antibodies in pre clinical or phase 1 close that will be needing to be efficacy tested for flu alone. Can bring to market quicker via challenge study, cheaper than mass population study. Evidence of this is in front of your eyes, hvivo activity way above previous years. Will protect or raise margins as value of challenge study is seen. If they only got to 25% of new proposed agents that got throug phase 1 and safety we will be doing very well. Now replicate for other viral targets like rsv, corona, rhinovirus. Add in vaccines, add in new agents like malaria, group a strep, c.diff, norovirus, salmonella. Capacity will be needed, price can be set accordingly and volume of work available as potential deals will be high. Tell me whonelse will be doing these then if we won't be????
It'll be interestimng to see what happens to all those that have piled into travel and airline stocks etc when Russia invades Ukraine in a few weeks time? I see OO as a very defensive stock at these times with the potential for significant growth opportunities with big Pharma's spending all those £billions on new drug/vaccine development they have made from Covid 19 sales.
A shorting clown.
You would think so Nathan.
But do we really know what Friels growth strategy is?
Short term leases on Boutique Hotels?
Seriously? And your evidence for this is what??????
You are about to see a life science super cycle of which infectious disease treatments which have lagged for 25 years will be springing up left right and centre. Respiratory viruses are massively under served. Vaccines need testing, new antivirals for Respiratory viruses will need testing and early work needs a controlled trial. Hvivo is front and centre here and demand will remain for years. Seriously, have a word with yourself. As a virology/bacteriology trained scientist I have no qualms holding this whilst hvivo have the lead in delivering rsv, flu human rhinovirus, asthma studies for potential treatments and vaccines. Add in new models expansion for Coronaviruses and shareprice will look after itself. Data licensing will add more revenue either as spin out DIM or via one offs if DIM never happens for areas of interest for diagnostics (an area I work in professionally) as human or host response Data will be key in some exciting assays to predict infection outcome. Throw in other assets that may get sold like prep and imutex then risk here is low with really decent risk profile for a quite large potential reward.
Literally you have no clue.
Seriously? And your evidence for this is what??????
You are about to see a life science super cycle of which infectious disease treatments which have lagged for 25 years will be springing up left right and centre. Respiratory viruses are massively under served. Vaccines need testing, new antivirals for Respiratory viruses will need testing and early work needs a controlled trial. Hvivo is front and centre here and demand will remain for years. Seriously, have a word with yourself.
anyone buying is mad. I'd say the sector is shot. 10-12p coming.
HRA sign off? IS THIS THE ONE???
https://twitter.com/Jigger93609885/status/1483769467297574913?t=7EpEQPVCNCNDhVh7qfIE3g&s=19
I’m not sure whether the pandemic falls away this year or not will have any significant bearing on the funding of CHIMs. If it raises its head with a serious mutation it stays high profile, if it becomes endemic with a milder version, easier/less risky to move into challenge studies. Most of Orph revenues come from RSV and Influenza, a mild Coronavirus would just add another string to their bow - Influenza studies will contribute 25mn ish this FY despite being endemic - still a key target for pharma.
it may not be over but would like it under control if possible
The French and Italian may not agree with you. Have you seen the numbers? This pandemic will not be over for some time yet.
.." Recent surveys and focus groups in the UK show strong support for a human challenge study..."
Unfortunately, even though this may be the case - which I agree anecdotally, as a participant in one of the Imperial focus groups - public enthusiasm and support doesn't seem to have moved a still very 'conservative' establishment. Whether medical or political I'm not clear....
There does appear to be a substantial body of resistance to 'boundary-pushing' innovation in the medical field : the public is way ahead of the system in support for other things, like use of medical marijuana for epilepsy in children and psilocybin for treatment of depression and addictions eg alcohol and tobacco.
As it is, it seems quite likely that the coronavirus pandemic will be 'over' before the CHIM studies HMG contracted with ORPH get seriously under way.
IMO