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FX, firstly it depends on whether the company wants to make it public. At the minute it makes commercial sense to keep it a secret so that other don’t try and usurp them.
I’m not expecting them to tell us with any preclinical results as they would still be keeping it quiet for commercial reasons.
It would be made public imho depending on two situations, a licensing deal being signed or the 1st patent being made public.
the backstop date that we would get to know which drug Nxp004 is based on would be 18 months after the first patent was filed. I think that was filed sometime in Q1 this year, so probably Q3/Q4 2022.
At what point would the drug become known? 2nd patent?
Posted on the 12th March - we live in hope
The pivot of 004 to oncology is interesting. That’s were the money is. Looking at AstraZeneca it’s there oncology drugs that have turned the company around
They have a few billion pound a year oncology drugs and one in particular has a patent expired and some a few years away. Anne’s comments about potentially extending a patent to 2040/41 on a 004 product was interesting and surely has to be intriguing to pharma companies in this very competitive space
Could be getting warm soup
Just stabbing in the dark to add to the discussion.
This link summarizes the handover of GSK products to Novartis:
https://www.novartis.com/news/media-releases/novartis-announces-completion-transactions-gsk
I had a quick look at one of the products for renal cancer : Votrient (aka Pazopanib). There are a number of patents listed at the following address which appear to expire on dates between the end of this year and 2023:
https://www.pharmacompass.com/patent-expiry-expiration/votrient
The only thing that doesn't match is that the 2020 revenue is only 650m USD.
Tafinlar, on the other hand, brought in 1.5bn USD. but I think the patent runs until 2030.
It seems a likely candidate given the details that you mentioned, particularly the patent expiry.
She could have been brought in by Blackwell specifically for those links, I suppose. But did anyone else have links to AZ at the time? What made them select it?
It looks like CB and AB both shared time at GSK too. I think GSK sold a their oncology portfolio to Novartis at some point after they both moved on. I have no idea if either of them had links the oncology side but I was just wondering if Blackwell might have had some involvement in helping them select the candidate for NXP004, based on existing knowledge about drugs he'd come across at GSK.
Is there a possibility it could be one of the old GSK drugs that now belongs to Novartis?
As a follow up to my NXP004 post last night, here is a bit of circumstantial evidence.
My hunch was that NXP004 is based on Lynparza (Olaparib) which is owned by Astrazeneca, they acquired it when they bought up KuDos Pharma back in 2005/2006.
Guess who was Global Product Director at AstraZeneca through till 2009?
It was our very Dr Brindley.
And here is her signature on a KuDos Pharma document from 2007. So we know she is aware of Lynparza and its history of development.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1178711/000119312507115742/dex103.htm
Now that would be a blockbuster!
I'd like to see the MM'S walk the price down on a deal for that one
Anyhow, since the sp apparently doesn't matter and its all about 'the story'... I've been wasting a bit of time and effort looking for the story around for potential NXP004 originators.
Its all speculative, but hey... it passes the time.
So, looking at the historic RNS's for clues our first introduction to NXP004 was in the placing announcement of November 2019.
"NXP004 is a new breakthrough entry to the Nuformix pipeline and is based on a recently approved targeted oncology therapy currently experiencing significant sales growth."
So the key take away there is that it was '....recently approved..." i.e. within a year or two and that it is a '...targeted oncology therapy.' meaning it blocks the growth and spread of cancer by interfering with specific molecules ("molecular targets") that are involved in the growth, progression, and spread of cancer. Then finally '....significant sales growth' which is self explanatory.
So, with that in mind the other key factors are...
"...its formulation and side-effects have posed a significant challenge to extending the use of the drug into new indications that could also benefit from its mechanism of action. "
"· NXP004 showed a dose-dependent reduction in the secretion of several key ECM components"
"....oncology drug that has significant sales (more than £1 billion per annum in 2020) and is showing further growth."
So.... as I said looking around for what might fit these categories. At the minute I'm looking towards AstraZeneca's Lynparza (Olaparib is the drug name)
It gained FDA approval in 2017 - 'recently approved'
It had sales of $1.77bn (£1.3bn) sales for 2020 full year. - around the valuation quoted by NFX
Sales growth of 38% for 2020 - fast growing
Its a targeted oncology drug as it is a PARP inhibitor
Side effects - 60%+ users suffer from side effects. Its also suspected to cause a type of pneumopathy.
PARP inhibitor drugs are also now being looked at for IPF.
Lynparza patent runs out in 2024 so ripe for a reworking that can renew it.
Astrazeneca bought Olparib at an early stage by buying up Cambridge based KuDos Pharma for £150m in 2005, although they did get other drugs as well and the 75 staff.
So possibly Lynparza is the basis for NXP004, but what do I know.
In endless optimism that they may get something right here, I'm hoping that since they have been testing NXP004 for a number of months, this has allowed NFX to get their ducks in a row to be swift following any positive results.
We know that the cocrystal is based on a £1bn p.a. selling oncology drug and they could potentially extend its patent through to 2040.
So I hope that JH has been active of setting up the patent for filing swiftly and contact made with the originator. If Anne wants her bonus, here is her opportunity.
Extending the patent life of a £1bn drug..... = £££££