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CF, if you look at every interview and rns that has been provided by the company since the transmission studies were completed it would be hard to say the company hasn't been very +ve in their belief the tariff will be agreed, and the project will go ahead. Each rns continues to communicate that everything has been submitted, questions answered and negotiations are positive, and we're now awaiting feedback from Moz / EDM. The March & May project updates outline everything that has been completed and additional work being done by both nccl and our partner in tandem with the tariff. They've also received approval from Moz / EDM on further studies wrt transmission costs, which says to me EDM and Moz are going to commission the project. As I've said before it would be a political and diplomatic 'own goal' of the highest order for them to back out after all these years and work completed. Given the Moz / Malawi transmission line also relies on energy from Tete and we're the only provider in the area I'm struggling to see how the project won't get the green light. The fact the leading tender is CMEC also points in the right direction. The question as always in Africa is when will we hear something...?
In the meantime I'd like to see signed EPC contract and some director warrants / options being executed. This last point will add a couple of pennies to the share price almost immediately. It says the project is fully expected to be commissioned, and simply delayed. Plus it will provide cash to allay funding concerns. If SF and Hanno believe it's going to happen then why not cash in now rather than later. As I've said before it will also provide a higher springboard for the share price when the tariff is finally agreed. This is fully in their control.
Comments from the last interview alone:
- 'We continue to make positive progress with the main project'
- 'The discussions on the tariff with EDM and Government as well as our strategic partner remain positive'
- 'It's fair to say it's a fairly sensitive time for the project, and we are having to move things forward very carefully and diligently, but we will provide an update at the right time'.
- 'Important to say the main project is still progressing well, and we look forward to providing an update in the future as soon as it's the right time'.
Just noting, from Jan 4th RNS on Historic Costs:
"As the Project power tariff is currently being negotiated with EDM, both parties have agreed to finalise the historical development costs once negotiations with EDM have been completed, as this will also have an impact on CMEC's subscription price to be agreed for the 60% share in the Project and the Project developers' fee."
https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/us-21m-historical-costs-agreed--in-principle-/202101040700093202K/
Seems that they expect the Historic Costs to be a key part of the formula for determining the Subscription Price. Have said before, that the Subscription Price will similar process to an outright sale, so is a good likelihood that an outright sale could involve the Historic Costs amount in the eventual formula. For me, that paragraph also signals some degree of confidence of getting to the Subscription Price stage, meaning they believe tariff negotiations will be sorted and they expect to move on from there.
#NCCL Market Cap just £11m, when
- Historic Costs owed to NCCL $26.7m ($21m audited);
- Have binding JDA with CMEC for Billion$$ Project
- Currentlyy negotiating tariff for said Billion$$ Project ;
- Have BIG Plans for solar ie NESA deal, with 1st solar project commissioned June-end and revenues thereafter!
NCCL now massively undervalued meaning there's HUGE upside!!