London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
You will only have one login account. Registering with multiple accounts is not allowed. Any user found to have more than one account on this site will have all, and any future accounts suspended permanently.
Your email and password must only be used by you. If a post is made under your account, it will be considered that it was posted by yourself.
Your account nickname must not be the same, or contain, listed company names or board members' names.
While debating and discussion is fine, we will not tolerate; rudeness, swearing, insulting posts, personal attacks, or posts which are invasive of another's privacy.
You will not;
discuss illegal or criminal activities.
post any confidential or price sensitive information or that is not public knowledge.
post misleading or false statements regarding the share price and performance. Such posts are deemed as market abuse, and may be reported to the appropriate authorities.
post any private communication, or part thereof, from any other person, including from a member of the board of directors of a listed company. Such posts cannot be verified as true and could be deemed to be misleading.
post any personal details (e.g. email address or phone number).
post live price or level 2 updates.
publish content that is not your original work, or infringes the copyright or other rights of any third party.
post non-constructive, meaningless, one word (or short) non-sense posts.
post links to, or otherwise publish any content containing any form of advertising, promotion for goods and services, spam, or other unsolicited communication.
post any affiliate or referral links, or post anything asking for a referral.
post or otherwise publish any content unrelated to the board or the board's topic.
re-post premium share chat posts on regular share chat.
restrict or inhibit any other user from using the boards.
impersonate any person or entity, including any of our employees or representatives.
post or transmit any content that contains software viruses, files or code designed to interrupt, destroy or limit the functionality of this website or any computer software or equipment.
If you are going to post non-English, please also post an English translation of your post.
If you are going to post non-English, please also post an English translation of your post.
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium and Verified Members
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
gfclappah - be very careful with using debt to invest. At the very least spread it over 5 different, good shares at the very least. That being said, morses seems pretty stable for the sector its in.
mhgh45 you forgot about thungela res when it got spun out of a conglomerate for being dirty coal. Was in the 100's now in the 400's. No-one wants a cold home no matter how environmentally friendly they are.
Good shout cane, also dabbled in Amigo in decent size last year and got out with a smile on my face. Even before the tribulations of the reg situation I’d figured out they needed more equity to support the likely covenants of the RCF in Amigo 2. This funding position is critical and as discussed in a previous post, is clearly very different for Morses.
Sub 60! Fill yer boots. If yer boots are full, back up the truck. I have, unfortunately my truck now full too! Space for more in the boot if it keeps falling for no reason. If the banks keep rising, I’ll have more powder.
This last 18 months has presented some amazing opportunities. I’m a financial geek, have been for 25 yrs. So VM at 60p, Lloyds at 25p, NatWest at 90p. Happy days. It’s been a great pandemic in that sense. I could go on.
At 1x geared I’m betting morses survives and prospers. Still got some banks , but none offer the same upside as this little company. Timing is just different. Yes reg risk. But the regulator needs good operating business like Morses.
Reg still remains the Achilles heal, but if adapted (which I think they have) this company is going to prosper cyclically, secularly and is probably one of the best earnings recovery stories in the market. Certainly the financial space that I analyse.
Agreed on the world tour v frustrating ++. Reason I didn’t sell was I felt it was worth 150p+. Still do. Lots of sensible analysts think 10p+ earnings next financial year. More the year after. I think totally reasonable if the claims management companies doesn’t stop it then the math gets you there. At this stage comfort on claims is key as the rest is mechanical - again the funding message here is key, I think. Management very confident on the longer term. I agree given macro, micro and everything else. Reg is key. With 98% satisfaction they seem well covered here.
If it’s Andy Thomson then he did have 2.5% of the stock at last annual report and retired due to ill health at the end of December. Would make a lot of sense coz I’ve been testing the offer in decent size and been surprised how liquid the stock has been consistently, interesting. There’s sure been a lot of stock sold recently.
Re the Amigo and Provident complaints read - this is clearly the Achilles heal in the sector. I gained comfort from a few things;
1) maternity lower complaints in the teeth of the CMC heat 2) decent customer reviews and management attitude to customer satisfaction/relend/developments in reg- it’s been a growing theme for a long time they appear to have been on top of 3) CMCs have been killed in Amigo and Provident, which reminds them that the high cost credit gig is not PPI (ie the sector, unlike banks, can’t afford it.
All of these make me more comfortable on claims, but I agree an update on this at results or pre-close (if provided) is very important given current sentiment.
The other absolutely key attribute though is leverage. Morses as BAU is currently funding its loan book pretty much 1:1 with equity (which is unheard of in the financial sector and reinforces the resilience of the firm) and the growth provided by the £37m RCF has only just been extended - this is important as the lenders get inside information that we clearly do not. If claims were an issue of material nature I’m guessing they wouldn’t be rolling funding well in advance of when the facility is due. Very, very different to AMGO, Prov and NSF. Stick with it.
I think this one is getting dragged down by the sentiment towards the sector, and let’s face it Amigo has burned investors big time. I’m invested, but know the downside is claims of mis-selling in this sector, which can be a game-changer. That said, I have some CFD’s on other shares, which I am expecting to generate some profit, which I’d be happy to top up here at this price. Let’s see what tomorrow’s brings.
Let’s hope whoever it is has now cleared out over the last two days selling. Morses closed at the bottom of a very big trend line that would be v unhealthy if it breaks. If you park amigo, there has been no fundamental shift in the story (feels like someone burned in AMGO ditching their high cost credit sector exposure regardless and unfortunately they seem to own Morses and with NSF down 10% too that one as well-Both too small to short) so I’m riding this one out, though fingers are now cut to shreds trying to catch this one on the way down.
AMGO is interesting. It looks like the market has gone full circle on that one. 9-12 months ago, Amigo, Provident and NSF’s demise was good for better quality operators like Morses – now it’s seen as bad. While I can see that Amigo’s problems are clearly not good for sentiment, the same woes have not exactly just popped up out of the blue, given the company has been technically insolvent for a while (the Directors have been telling you that). I stick with the view that with a strong capital, funding and operating model the strong recovery in Morse’s profits will become evident in the new financial year as digital moves through break-even, HCC remains resilient, and credit issued continues to recover. Demand for consumer credit fell sharply across the UK/world during the pandemic and it is now only just recovering at a UK economy level, albeit pockets of demand are returning more strongly, faster in the areas of the economy most impacted by the pandemic (hence the read from HAT was interesting). For companies that can navigate the higher regulatory bar now set to service this part of the market the growth outlook is very strong. Earnings and dividends will follow quickly once the tipping point on the IFRS9 drag has been reached. The good thing about accounting is that it is predictable once you understand how it works.
H&T, the high cost credit pawn broker, has released a trading statement this morning highlighting a stronger than expected recovery in lending during November and December, with December at record levels. While IFRS9 means profit expectations remain in the range of expectations, the set up for next year looks strong. Sound familiar?
Continues to lend support that the Morses investment case remains intact and the set up as we move into the new financial year is very strong.