Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
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They will ideally need to put all their problems behind them. Write downs all at once for fraud, property, showroom closures, layoffs, re-evaluate any finance numbers, covid etc then look forward to a future which can only get better. This might need to be a 2 step process - first get the new management then clear the decks then perform. Still very much odds on that this will look like a good solid, profitable company again in a year's time with appropriate re-rating of the shares.
Thanks rwd, some recommended good unemotional rough analysis there, which I might of got to given time and more energy. Any member got hold of any full-time analysts' fine detail on the point please? Put another way, in the run up to January net figure would have probably come out at 70p plus recovery prospects and the share traded typically at 51p-57p with a max of 65.2p. With a 10p Covid hit (many £ millions when multiplied by shares in issue) this should probably translate now to 60p net per share assets as you say (plus recovery prospects) and so apply the same £m discount as uncertainty discount and - short selling skewing excepted - trading range soon of 41p-47p with a max of 55p wouldn't be unreasonable.
Put a third way, if a predator made a lowball offer of 50p per share saying "128% premium for you!!" the same institutions who are playing with our shares would be outing non-rough calculations of the same thing and a much brighter future saying ridiculous, we want 80p. And probably leaking rumours of a foreign buyer @ 90p to the weekend press as well.
I'd like to fine tune your commercial property comments, it's dire in general terms and I haven't invested for years. Being where my nickname implies I can see the crisis of retail with rent strikes (excluding food & a few such as NXT and ABF) every day and I thought London office construction folly even before 2020. PDG which I mentioned actually received £10.2m cash for a £9.8m book property - 15 year lease @ c7% (ref at end). However LOOK property tends to be in mixed industrial areas where demand holds up, my regional one is on an estate where till now voids have been minimal and is easily convertible into Aldi/LIDL/whatever or demolition for an internet logistics depot.
Anyway, I'm feeling short selling again today with the same price pattern as yesterday, maybe in the private sub-0.5% range, those boys (and a few girls these days no doubt) don't like revelations while they're doing it. Time and the FCA will tell!
www.lse.co.uk/rns/PDG/sale-and-leaseback-of-property-at-porsche-stockport-v6hxsv2shysqt66.html
What we need to see here pdq, is CFO appointment and COO appointment. Stabilize the ship and start to improve.
VTU lost 20m April May. Would expect to see something similar here so, if so debt at 75m looks about right. If they can get to BE for the rest of H! and profit in H2 then 60p a share by the end of the year looks about right. Difficult to imagine the car market worse in H2 than H1.
They sold 17m worth of property since then and debt has come down since then but not by 17m. Presumably the difference has been used in op ex. BV is no mechanically no longer 81p never mind any revaluation since December. Since all commercial prop cos are writing down the value of their assets you can pick a number but i would go with 25-30%. Still worth a punt though.
"the Group continues to enjoy the benefit of a strong property portfolio with a net book value of c. £317m (as at 31 December 2019) (81p per share)."
Book value 81p per share.
Property will no longer be worth that post covid. Net debt at end of april was 65m, lets say that deteriorated by 10m, so 75m + pension liability of 68 m, gives liabilities of roughly 150m. If the property is worth 30% less in a fire sale then you still have 50m remaining plus whatever you value the operating business at. Historic EBITDA was around 75m, lets say thats halved in todays market (frauds to one side) valued at 6 times gives 200m + 50m = gives an SP around 60p kind of worst case. Fag packet stuff granted but certainly higher than 23p
As reported in the Group's year end trading update the Board expects to report net debt at 31 December 2019 of approximately £62.0m (2018: £86.9m). The Group has a £250m revolving credit facility with five banks with a term to March 2022. In addition, the Group continues to enjoy the benefit of a strong property portfolio with a net book value of c. £317m (as at 31 December 2019) (81p per share).
(RNS 23 march 2020 - sorry in posting below I put the wrong type of symbols round the extract and the LSE system cut out the text)