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If the deal is pulled Rastuss the LMI Board should step down. I don't trust their ability to deal with Froneman. He may intend to purchase some of LMI's assets but if he ends up with them is another story.
Rastuss - SGL are placing more shares so that would mean that LMI holders are being diluted even more. This was not part of the original scheme of arrangements. The LMI Board need to step up for once.
Judging by the trading in LMI this morning one could quite easily think that Froneman has caught a whiff that there is another interested party in LM and the reason for the placing could be an extra sweetener for LMI holdersI. There seems to be a lot of buying in LMI this morning. Something is going on here...
This goes to show that LMI Board should now come out and pull the deal. SGL is a mess... More games from Froneman it seems.
Rastuss agree bearish, think it's meant to be, gold badly affected and potential PGM AMCU actions detrimental. Thats why political in my view, he laying out the backdrop to discussions both at LMI and SBGL! US PGM production down, not sales and guidance unchanged. We will know more at next update. Jabba will continually review the bid and agree he may decide on different route but suspect not, you never know though, still think business rescue option low probability, an outsider at 10/1 currently! LMI downside has increased but depends on how SBGL SP reacts in next week or so, amazing what a promise of Dividend can do to SP for institutional investors!
Seems to be a precautionary financial measure, with a political twist! The promise of reinstatement of dividend asap maybe enough to support SP of SBGL and consequently LMI's! It is though a dilution of the LMI shareholders percentage of the SBGL entity (again?). It could be used as an argument by Ben to up the offer to compensate, all depends on what happens to SBGL SP!
Not so sure see above
Rastuss agree re wage negotiations, high probability of difficulties you are suggesting. SBGL will definitely have cash to pick up pieces but cannot see institutional shareholders happy with that, so low probability I would suggest and hope! I can see the advantage of seeing off Uncle Joe, he's doing that himself, the majority of his members want to work, not strike for political reasons, they want to earn for their families and communities. In the long term cooperation not conflict wins prizes!
Not wanting to predict re competition appeal already stuffed on saying not much would happen until after election!
Anyway bit of fun think there are now 6 scenarios for wjat happens in next year:-
SBGL takeover
LMI stand alone
White knight bid
Status quo (still waiting on deal!)
Business rescue
Reverse takeover
Any other options? Place your bets now!
I still reckon SBGL evens!
seeking alpha Ras
Its on the SBGL site. AMCU appealing ruling, no doubt on date! Looks like some AMCU membership drifted to other unions as count in Feb! Also SBGL reduced peace and stability payment to zero Jabba playing hard ball. Uncle Joe's reaction on Friday will be interesting. Was not expecting news so soon! Another good day though.
Wage verification says NUM and other unions are the biggest at the gold mines uncle joe defeated again! hes gonna have to push this lonmin thing or lose face big time imo
Certainly!
Cretainly a lot of buying today!
Whatamess -I know that some are shorting Pd and going long Pt. Also Pt is at very low levels and I personally think that it has been driven down by supply/demand factors but it will only take 2% of the gold bulls to switch into Pt and then you will see a proper rise. As I have mentioned before I expect to see this within the next 18 months. When this happens LMI will be a valuable asset and worth considerably more than the current mkt cap... If I can see this I am sure others within the mining industry will be able to see the potential possibilities here...
LMI were priced to go go bankrupt. Then after the SGL bid they have been discounted to the SGL price. The difference since the bid is that SGL have had a torrid time with regards to lots of fatalities, strikes, lawsuits and issues due to their large borrowings. If LMI were not tied into SGL the share price would be markedly higher. I note some institutions like Investec have been building up a stake in LMI recently. I doubt the current Board have got the gumption or acumen to renegotiate terms with Froneman. In my view LMI is a sitting duck for another offer...
In 2018 LMI averaged 890$/oz so recent price increase is welcome. The PD price for first half well up which is likely to have been beneficial as well for LMI but the COP is not looking good! First half figures will reveal all. If PT continues to rise on a sustained benefit then yes LMI could stand alone but we are not there yet in my view! The institutional shareholders will be watching and should they agree that in the longer term LMI would be better off standing alone, they will pressurise board to seek a better deal or withdraw. 100 you maybe be ahead of the curve in terms of their thinking time will tell. In the interim hopefully a good week ahead for all.
With regards to another bid I very much doubt the potential bidder would be too bothered about the views of the current Board. The Board have given their irrevocable undertakings to accept the SGL offer but in al fairness as a group they hardly own a great deal of shares and the shares they do have are mainly ones that have been awarded rather than purchased. After their track record I really don't think that investors will be swayed by their views as they have performed poorly. If a potential offeror would bid £1.50 cash they would likely be more successful than SGL. SGL would then most probably have to issue at least 2 SGL shares rather than the current joke of an offer...
With rising Pt prices the last thing LMI should be doing is making redundancies...
There is still a lot of negativity on here which is quite surprising in the wake of Pt rising. The offer from SGL doesn't reflect a fair price and I doubt they will be successful getting this deal through so all this talk is irrelevant. The important factor right now is the price of Pt. Rastuss - You did comment some months back that Pt would need to rise 20% for LMI to be fine. Well it's nearly there. The next LMI figures equally will be irrelevant as the Board are strangely enough on a mission to paint the bleakest possible picture they can. I don't trust them one bit... A decent management could do wonders here.
Rastuss I have no doubt date will be extended, the logic of the deal is compelling for both SBGL and LMI. That said agree next financial/production updates from both will be interesting, cannot see LMI being cash starved but burn rate may become more apparent!
Re legals, not sure myself but we will find out soon enough or not! Lawyers in SA must be a lucrative business maybe should invest there instead of mining!
Rastuss agree re treading carefully which is why I am not expecting ruling re verification and takeover before election day! When verification exercise completed and is in SBGL favour suspect there wil be another peace and stability payment offer marginally better than last, if refused again workers will be dismissed if they refuse to return to work which will be perfectly legal as strike will be unprotected by that time. Doing anything before will provide additional support for EFF as this strike is political and Uncle Joe wants confrontation. I watched EFF leader getting ejected from parliment it was a hoot! These people are extremists and hopefully will not gain to much ground in election but we will see. Cyril does need to speed up progress in making lives better for black south africans otherwise the next election after this one could be the last one for many years as South Africa descends into turmoil unfortunately!
Doubt much will happen until election over! No point in giving Uncle Joe any oxygen in the interim and striking membership maybe waivering anyway!
Nope
RTO! lol