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Thank you pokerchips!
"Anyone know when results is due out?"
30.01.2020 - Q4 2019 Production Report
20.02.2020 - Full Year Results 2019
https://www.kazminerals.com/investors/
Hi guys
Anyone know when results is due out?
Thank you
Been mentioned that if Chinese economy stagnates,that government will heavy
Invest in infrastructure projects
this summer.
hash
Good to see you are still with us at times like this we tend to avoid looking at the share price
Last time copper was this price was Sept 19th and Kaz was 442 so still in line
So we will wait and see it may take several weeks for it to come back so let's hope that the results are ok but in past history it doesnt bode well for the share price
Just hoping for that elusive rns tie up to ease the debt they must realise you cant have 7bn of debt and a mkt cap of of 2bn
meant 520-570.......seems so long ago now....
hi Autonomy1
I am very much here but have cut down screen time drastically in the new year.....so did not read any of the posts for last 2 weeks...
what a difference few days can make. I was predicting 600+ for kaz on back of the rise which got kaz through 570. I did sell few kaz share between 420 and 470 and like always now on hindsight I wish I had sold more.....
thanks for reposting my note on kaz which I penned when the share price was 390 . I was lucky to have bought a lot of kaz below 400 then. I did buy some kaz today as well through some orders I had placed which went through. i will end up buying more if it goes down as I have more orders waiting to be filled in which I guess is very likely given copper prices and general mood of the market.
I am fully convinced that kaz is a very strong business with a very low cost . Copper prices will have to fall a lot more for kaz to make a loss.
most of the loan kaz has on it books is linked to the fed interest rate (which as we all know has gone down since I wrote that analysis) the cost of borrowing for kaz would be now lower by 18-20 million USD per annum.
I will continue to be net long on kaz for a very long time I guess ... but we all know that we will only see real value in kaz realised when they find a partner for Russian project or copper crosses 3 . and if both the events happen (which is quite likely in2020 or 2021 then kaz would cross 12... I might completely sell out then..... till then this is the share to keep trading in........having said that I have dropped my day trading significantly as I am trying to focus to build my business....and am trying to automate it through pre placed orders but it isn't that exciting and fun as actually day trading...missing the excitement .......
Realist the difference is, Kaz in profit
and operating,sxx ,not in operation
Or .making money.
casual
its worth what the market says its worth and that changes daily,,,
i prefer using charts to tell me what something is worth rather than whats in the ground,,,
worked out quite nice in sxx first target was 10p second was 5p and guess what both got hit and company is being sold 5.5p
my targets came from charts not whats in ground and was called a lot worse than daft when it was at 30p
200 .company worth more as ,what in the ground.
Talking daft.
The article was done by hash not me a few months ago I just pasted it into the message
Hash posted on the 14th Jan so he is still around
Realist 111 - you have no clue and talking so much rubbish... 200p means £1b mcap for a company that makes yearly profit near to £1b...go back to education and learn a thing or two about investing.
back on the road to 200,,,,, pit stop at 400
Don't think so Roydon1.tuscon another one.
Thanks Auto, Good writing .
I think @hash sold out and moved on !
Thanks for information-Auto .@hash been
Quiet lately.
I have done some number crunching for you, this forum doesn't allow excel sheets else that would have been really best. but anyway here it goes.
Price of copper today $5675/tonne
Price of Gold today $1546
assumption prices remain same as above for next 3 years.
Kaz copper production remains same ( though this is likely to increase as they produce more ore and get more efficient machinery like they have done in h1)
Copper production
2019 (6 months) 150 Tonnes Revenue 547m EBITDA Free Cash flow 233m
2020 300 T Revenue 1870m EBITDA 1093 m Free Cash flow 466m
2021 300 T Revenue 1870m EBITDA 1093 Free Cash flow 466m
2022 380 T. Revenue 2323m EBITDA 1384 Free Cash flow 590m
So kaz will generate 1.75 billion of free cash flow in next 3.5 years at current copper prices…enough to service the debt repayment I would think. Their repayment of debt is about 1.7 billion for next 3 and half years. They will still be left with 700 m cash .
assumptions
Cash cost of Copper (assume remains same) assumption gold production remains same.
Revenue , EBITDA free Cash flow expected. As copper prices go down, income tax and mining royalties decrease accordingly. Working capital also decreases or worse case scenario remains constant ( I have taken worse case scenario that it neither increases nor decreases). I have added gold and other revenues as same as h1 . the impact of gold prices will increase revenue for gold by 40 m per annum. Rest I have assumed as same.
you may ask as to why does cash flow go up in second half as copper price , revenue and ebitda is decreasing .
The main reason is that in H1 free cash flow decreased because there was 87 m built up of inventories (copper and spare parts), advance payments of about 22m extra, and 22 m increase in payables. I don’t expect it to happen again, infect I expect it to be reducing and thereby increasing cash flow. I have however assumed that it remains same being conservative. I have also taken sustaining capex higher than h1 . I have assumed royalities to be same though they will drop as well as they are linked to revenue .
Net effect on cash flow I have taken as +125m as working capital, advance payments would not keep on increasing but remains constant as revenue declines . if you hear back webcast of kaz half yearly results this was the point the CFO was making when answering questions on cash flows but was not very articulate about it.
This was done by hash after the half year results
Leave it with you as to whether you can understand it
They wont make a loss
You need hash to answer your question properly
If copper hold at these prices will
kaz go into the red.or will it keep
its head above water.
No sorry no more than that
Auto, I know back in 2018, the FT had an article on this, have you got any links to anything more recent? That surely would be good news!
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e540971c-eca9-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57
Auto,
That would be great, and I actually wonder if there is anything in the pipe line, because this drop was so overdone, also KAZ price in the last few weeks was on the low side, from experience, that is what usually happens before a big rise.
Fingers Crossed
I read last week that the CEO of Norlisk nickel added 8bn to his personal fortune
The company stated that they would like to help finance Kaz to build Baimskaya if we get news to this effect imagine the share price then
The company stated in 2018 they would spend 12bn to expand