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3card, true, I assume we think we know the value being created and just want everyone else to see it to! The real answer should come in the next few updates!
Sumo - there was a hint of lightheartedness in my post, although it's fair to say that successive placings have held back the SP in the last year or two.
Nonetheless I remain very positive about where we are going and hope the recent slight tick up is a precursor for some very good news this year.
I guess we just get a bit impatient when we see the company doing well but don't see it reflected in the SP compared with established Div paying shares
One big unknown Billyboy is how the profit share at Windsor PGM works. I assume your calculations have taken into account the costs of all the raw materials we are supplying and transporting to Northam? Have you also taken into account the raw material costs at Inyoni after the $21m payment is complete? I also assume your figures are at the operational earnings level and not at the group level after depreciation, amortisation, finance costs etc are deducted? Who knows you may be right but until I see the operational earnings figs for H1 2020 accounting year I haven’t got much of a clue. Nor does it seem does Shard as the promised revised broker note is still to be seen. The other big assumption you have made is that Kabwe earnings will completely replace the Windsor PGM ones when they appear to be finished at the end of 2020.
3Card....
My EPS takes into account current shares issued, including those issues to partly fund Kabwe. However, no earnings have been included for this period (to 30th June 20) in relation to Kabwe. I personally believe that I have been very fair in my workings and this shows the large upside potential here for the next year and hopefully beyond.
Regards, BB2.
3card, that seems illogical because new fund raising brings new revenue which means it would just depend on how good a deal it was. Also if numbers are proved we could easily move above a PE of 8!
Billy - did your EPS calculations take into account the next fundraising? lol
Billyboy, thanks for the clarification. Much to look forward to in the next update!
Hi Sumo.
I did some basis figures on all the projects and then aggregated revenue and earnings. All figures were based upon the financial year 1 July 2019 to 30th June 2020. I am going to break these down to half year to 31st Dec and full year to 30th June when I get a minute to do so.
Some will argue that my figures are conservative but I have just used the info that I had available at the time along with some additional estimations. I am pretty happy with them and it will be interesting to compare them to first half production update which I hope for at the end of Jan or very early Feb.
BB2.
Billyboy, is your year financial i.e. to End June or calendar?
Happy New Year to all,
Just looking at my figures from November (which do not take account of the higher Windsor figures).
JLP ended 2019 on a P/E ratio of 8.125 (SLP sit slightly under this at 7.342, as a yardstick).
Using my £24.9 earnings figure for 2019/2020 and 2,018 million shares currently issued, this would give a EPS of 1.22p. Ssing the same P/E ratio of 8.125 would give a share price of 9.9p and market cap of £200m this time next year.
Regards, BB2.
Yes, excellent work Billy and aw.
Worth keeping the figures up to date as events happen.
Good work aw
Phenomenal upside coming
Billy,
On the PGMs, I understand that the margin is ~ $450 per ton at Hernic so if they are performing now to nameplate, given they have control of throughput, then they should produce 30k pa, which produces a profit of $14m. The big outlier is Windsor, given that they say they have produced 5,000 plus in Sep. No idea if this is maintainable, or not, or indeed what the toll cost at Northam is, or what the profit split is. So will assume a toll cost of $300 and a 25% cut to Northam and production of 35k. This gives a profit of $14.5m.So with my earlier email, I would expect a steady run rate after FC installation of ~$53m, less HO costs, tax etc... then of course we have Kabwe. Here if you work through the numbers they have definitely been very conservative on what they will produce. So all in all I wouldn’t be surprised if at the end of 2020/early 2021 the $53m isn’t nudging towards $100m. Some might consider this ridiculous, but based on the information we have that appears to be where it’s heading. Anyway just what my calls say.
Hi,
Based upon my earlier posts, adding the project revenue together and the project earnings together
my 2019/2020 revenue projection is between £60m (17.5, 19.8, 12.9, 4.2 and 5.6) and 61.4m (18.1, 19.8, 12.9, 4.2 and 6.4)
my 2019/2020 earnings projection is between £24.7m (9.1, 6.9, 2.7, 0.4 and 5.6) and £27.4m (9.4, 6.9, 4.3, 0.4 and 6.4), NOT accounting for the higher Shard figure on Inyoni chrome.
I am interested if anyone can help me with any errors or input etc.
Regards, BB2.