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Healthy
You have assumed I suspect wrongly that the the "asking prices" were"Book Values"I suspect they were at a lot less
Values have continued to fall as amply demonstrated by market evidence
Don't ignore coronavirus appearing as a dampner in potentail sales of enclosed shopping centres at the moment
Hammerson's disclose that their overall portfolio, including France & Ireland (which aren't as badly affected by online sales), has been devalued by 18.6% in the last year.
Their half-year results to 30/06/19 saw a 7.2% devaluation over six months. Meaning that the 2nd half saw a write-down of 11.4%. IOW, the fall in values is accelerating, not slowing.
This suggests to me that Intu may see a fall of greater than 10%. next week Maybe this goes some way to explaining the rise in shorts when the stock is as low as 15p.
Short positions in Hammerson have been steadily increasing and now reached at least 8.1% of the stock. That is in the top 10 of most shorted shares in the country.
In spite of intu’s very very low SP , the short positions are also still very high >6%. It is hard to believe that some sophisticated investors are taking short positions in Intu when the SP is only 15p or less.
My feeling is that HMSO shares will drop heavily today when the results are announced. Intu should also fall because property devaluation and of prime UK shopping centers in H2-2019 only would be about 15%. That would breach a lot of loan covenants and Intu position against the wall will be crystal clear. As an Intu shareholder my only hope is that management sells many assets even at a current market price and pay down the debt. Selling about half of portfolio is probably the best outcome now. Otherwise, refinancing will be extremely difficult and company may collapse.
" maybe Healthy can stop referring to the £8bn portfolio"
yeah...somewhat optimistic...bit like expecting top dollar for a mink coat ,despite it being in prefect condition
but..the SP certainly has priced in a valuation drop, even since those H1 valuation figures
Well the recent sales will certainly frank a reduction close to the recent sales perhaps 12-15% then maybe Healthy can stop referring to the £8bn portfolio
Hammerson results are due tomorrow.
I read the following: ‘Analysts estimate that the value of Hammerson’s assets, which stood at £9.9bn a year ago, will fall by approximately 20 per cent. ‘
It will be very informative to see Hammerson devaluation of their UK flagship shopping centers tomorrow. If analysts are right, Intu’s devaluation will be further 10-15% from H1-2019 values. It looks that the devaluation is not yet slowing. Not good news for shareholders