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As Dive says - well 6 performance post shutdown will be crucial - if bottom hole pressure recovers well, P6 is likely in the money for longer.
Whoever wins China November president battle, zero Covid policy will end and China economy will bounce back. This is not a small thing. US-Iran nuclear deal is improbable. Oil & gas sanctions will at last impact Russia significantly - West must hold it's nerve. I think Russia weaker than commonly understood. I think more likely than not oil price will recover strongly.
Let Warren Buffett have his fantasy about Iran romping in bed with the USA it makes him feel happy! and suits his agenda thanks for your long winded reply really not necessary since I’m well informed and not really that interested in your opinion!
The maintenance shutdown period is usually 10 -14 days. I expect the next offload to be around the 7th October. Regardless there will only be two more offloads before year end. What will be of interest is how the reservoir performs post shutdown in terms of the extent to which bottom hole pressure recovers.
However, before the next offload we should have news from Management (if they are true to their word) on the future plan. Will it be P8 or are they going to invest elsewhere. For those who can’t be bothered to read the Company website I would like to point you to their page tilted About us where you will find under Strategy “Hurricane’s strategy is to create shareholder value through monetising the reserves and resources associated with naturally fractured basement reservoirs within its portfolio .“ The question is does this remain true because if they are planning to invest their cash pile elsewhere they really need to update their website to avoid misleading investors.
For all those who are in on the expectation of a takeover dream on. The industry said fractured basement and sniffed.
BHP reported today and it’s worth reading their results as an indicator of where the oil price is going.
Warren - you'll have to try harder and do better - you transparent little tinker!
In 2021 the Half Year Results & Oct monthly Operational & Finance update were published within 1 RNS on 14 October.
Last offload was July 24. Allowing 2-3 weeks for shutdown, next offload should around 14 October or few days earlier. So may again see 1 RNS covering both matters. So although quiet 2 months, big news flow then due even if no Sept update. As flying says, will be interesting see what market (+ analysts) thinks of HUR with applicable PE ratio for first time. And, if oil $110, another $35mill cash = $124mill unrestricted + $19mill restricted; Knock off $5mill if oil $100
@WaffenBurret https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Nuclear-Deal-Increasingly-Unlikely-As-Iran-Strengthens-Ties-With-Russia.html looks less likely since the supposed Iranian spy satellite has been launched
There will be No Iranian Deal. Iran is just playing the same game as Russia and the US will balk at this. It will NOT get through Congress. But even if 1% chance most analysts have suggested that maximum Iranian OIl coming on to the market by year end would be 200K , The Elephant in the Room so,s to speak is the EU ban on seaborne Russian Oil from December 3rd and more importantly refined products February. Over the next month or so Russian output will begin to struggle for buyers as refiners stop forward ordering. August is a wiered month, low volume and wierd swings. September will be a true reflection and I think all sensible indicators are pointing to Oil going back above the floor of $100. Not to mention the last monthly strategic oil release !!!
…..before maybe resizing my current holding in HUR.
Good evening Dickbat.
I think it is looking quite likely that Iranian oil might be flowing soon as it would be mutually beneficial to both the US and Iran right now. (Can’t remember who said America never sleeps with the enemy a few posts back, but still).
As a result I’m not so confident about a tightening of oil supply come Winter:
“ China’s factory and retail activity slowed unexpectedly in July, prompting the central bank to cut key lending rates to shore up demand. In the US, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index posted its second largest monthly decline ever in August. The prospect of increased Iranian oil exports also weighed on prices as Iran responded to the EU’s proposal for reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, calling on the US to show a “realistic approach and flexibility” to resolve three remaining issues. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco head Amin Nasser said Sunday that the state-owned firm stands ready to raise crude output to its maximum capacity of 12 million barrels a day if the Saudi Arabian government orders it to do so.”
The difference between world oil supply and demand is on a knife-edge as one can see.
Funny, It reminds me of that Micawber fellow when he considered the finer margins of life: “ Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen pounds nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds nought and six, result misery. '
I think the same applies to World oil consumption.
However, even at, say, $85/bbl (mid price future 2023), Hurrican Energy will probably be worth around 9+p. The elephant in the room will be BOD’s strategy, which in turn rests upon the future UK Government and it’s ‘election grabbing’ new manifesto. II reckon they will find themselves in a bit of a pickle come Mid-September and will wait until they are installed with a firm plan and set of commitments.
At least the cash balance doesn’t look to shabby so we are not in a bad place, guess just a slight retrace in oil price is pulling back
Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing what the market thinks of an oil producing company with no debt with a PE ratio of 2 when the next financial report is released
Good post Senseman…I also see oil at that level by the end of the year…..But don’t worry Warren Buffett has it covered America will pull 2/3million barrels out in no time ..!! Now that does really make me laugh out loud.!
Apology - omitted in error
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-120-tight-market-russia-china-us-reserve-2022-8
Cash from mid-Feb offload could see 9.3p cash
A pleasure to read nice figures Glouc, even if we're navel gazing. Given the $19 mill is HUR's eventually returnable cash sitting in an escrow account earning interest, it's legitimate to include it in cash totting-up/valuations. Would certainly be included in any negotiations. If it's included, as well as nearly full AM, by 31 Dec HUR cash would be-
Brent $100 next 2 offloads = 7.3p
Brent £110 next 2 offloads = 7.8p
Am more optimistic than most will be $110 (see below). Even if EPL remains, most of HUR's tax bill should be offset via reinvestment. Am more sanguine than you about a deal being done a bit later than you. But main things is - what a transformation from 14 months ago
By early October and the next offload, Assuming $100 oil we should have circa $115m unrestricted Cash and circa $19m restricted. Giving a cash equivalent share price of near 6p! I,m just hoping the next offload won,t be HUR's anymore!