The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
We may have liftoff, mcatee! Over 16p tangible equity per share, which will rise even further if/when debt is repaid and if/when assets are revalued upwards. But as it stands, the discount to current nav is way too large at today’s price.
Within 18 months, the annual profit after tax could be equal to the total current market cap! Not EBITA - ACTUAL REAL NET PROFIT!!!!
These share price levels will not last for long! Come on AMTECH buy in, don't be a plank any longer!
The rocket crash landed into some goal posts in the field next to mission control! It is now patched up and ready for lift off! Nothing can hold this one back ! We are going to the moon mr W. Buffet
The negativity on here is heart-rending.Why can’t you just accept we will leave you in the dust when this rocket goes to Neptune.
Patience MCATEE.I will see you on Neptune my friend!!!!!!
Did you move the goalpost from this month to next year? ??
It just keeps getting better!!! (As AA20 sings to his wife)
Are you topping up Mr W. Buffet??
This time next year Rodney!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just sit back! Relax! And keep topping up!
The annual profits will soon equal the whole current market capitalisation!
The penny will drop but there are a lot of dopey investors (including the computers) who are slow on the uptake !!
We will be very rich my friend!!!!!!!!!!!!
baffled by the share price reaction even if its only 7m shares so far! someone is desperate to sell or this is being manipulated
There is good news, good news and more good news!! Then some more good news!!!!!!! Do the maths on next years profit!!!!!!!!!
We will be very rich my friends!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They are explicitly pointing to a 40% uplift in day rates on new contracts. That’s just a really beautiful figure, up there almost with my wife
The reason (only reason...) the SP is slow to respond to what is very good update is the overhang of placing shares 3p that has to be churned before any material rise.....any further decent news will help to accelerate that inevitable process....as such,like I said before any material rise will not be before sometime next year.
Hold or better add in the current price for handsome rewards in not that far distance...IMHO.
GLA.
Looks like the rocket exploded at take off......something is seriously wrong with this scrip
16.6p equity per share. This looks way undervalued, imo.
Excellent news throughout! Would be disappointed if this doesnt hit 5p today
“The Group is also currently assessing if secondary alternatives to the equity raise exist to prevent the issuing of warrants if the second tranche of equity is not placed by the end of 2022. This initiative is supported by the opportunity to significantly reduce leverage levels, through improvements in underlying trading results driven by the positive outlook.”
?Strong pipeline of long-term contracts currently being tendered.? ? and continuing commodity strength consolidating likelihood these contracts are realised :)
Indeed. Many people believe they see the future. Libor will multiply. Indebted companies will fail. GMS will go to zero.. the world will fall apart….. but then on the other hand .. :)
Debt is what’s holding this back, it’s a dirty word, looking forward
An interesting day when there are more chats than number of trades :)
"....should the net debt/EBITDA ratio fall below 4x before December 2022 then the warrant and PIK conditions fall away". This is from the panmure gordon report, got more detailed views on debt and how the second raise may not be necessary. We can debate if they hit those ratios or not;the odds are in favor of GMS at the moment.
@luke - agree with you on the illumination comment, which is why i keep wondering why this hasn't moved and what is it that I am missing.Personally don't think the risk is libor creeping up or a capital raise.
Those who believe that they see the future so clearly seek no further illumination and thus the black swan remains concealed.
On the contrary, I’m very happy to discuss your musings. You stated that a 2% rise in libor would significantly erode the bottom line progress at GMS. I have demonstrated to you that this perception is very much not “on the money”, because the $7m increase in the interest charge is not material in the context of a $50-60m increase in the bottom line. If you now want to change your scenario and multiply the rate of libor many fold then yes, of course, that will have a significant impact, but of course - is of much lower probability than a 2% move. I think we are all “on the money” in believing that an unprecedented multiple rise in interest rates will be bad for indebted companies, but I’m not sure the point is all that illuminating, with respect.
It is always telling to receive a "with respect" response for it is an indication that one's thoughts are right on the money.
I took 2% as an example.
This could as well read 6% or 8%,for the days of "cheap" anything, including money, might be drawing to a close.
Those who are already uncomfortable with their level of debt will become ever more so, for I believe they/we are about to be held to ransom.
Just musings btw so no need for anyone to become aerated.
With respect, another 2% on libor would add $7m to the interest charge. In the context of EBITDA moving from the $50m region to the $100m region, and free cash flow moving from zero to about $60m pa, I do not think $7m is really that material. This is especially true when the market cap is currently little more than 1x that free cash flow.
Interest rates , alongside inflation, are already on the rise and seem likely to continue in an upward trend for an extended period.
2% added to LIBOR,or whatever amended base might in future be chosen, would significantly erode any potential progress for bottom line profitability and thus GMS's ability to pay down bank debt.
Nevertheless, the share price could well move up 50% or so as 2021 draws towards a close.
I’m still waiting for the rocket to lift off, must be burning through some fuel sat on the launch pad still. They won’t renegotiate the debt until the debt restructuring conditions have been met from the last one with another raise of $50m. These are the conditions and it’s solely to pay off some of the debt. The banks are still in control here.