The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I’m afraid Amtech has been hopelessly wrong. Please keep up. 1) the shares have doubled since he arrived discouraging investors at 3.8p.. 2) his repeated assertion that there will be a highly dilutive issue recedes both as the shares rise, and as the company has confirmed it may go down a far less dilutive route using warrants. I can testify to doubling my money by doing the opposite of what amtech suggests, and it is laughable that mcatee is admonished for “only” making 100% on his money since last autumn. My sympathy to those interested parties who have made nothing during this wonderful recovery, but better to rethink your approach than point the finger at others. ATB
Oh man, I thought you talk rubbish most of the time, but this last comment is just plain delusional. The SP isn't gaining 5 points in a month or even in a year. And while your numbers are right, AMTECH is even more right: the ghost of what's gonna happen at the end of the year scares the few investors still interested in GMS and prevents the SP from taking off. Best case scenario a sustained 8p after releasing the half year results followed by a sharp drop after whatever option they decide to go with later this year.
Also, who’s not to say this SP isn’t being artificially kept low? Major SHs might not want the SP to be that high anyway. Either way, it isn’t going to 12p anytime time in the foreseeable future.
12p was June and 18p was 2023. But I stand by my predictions!
Please do
You also said it would be 12p in June and 18p in July Mac, we shall revisit this in a couple of weeks.
Question is though, who controls which option is to be taken, the company or the banks? Obviously the company will want it their way and the banks will want it their way to achieve maximum effect. The current discount on the financial libor + package runs out at the end of this year then reverts back to libor +5% Debt will have been payed down some by then but it will still be a big chunk left. Also what happens if the sp is below 6p by this point?
When this was 2.9p per share, I said it was going to fly and the usual suspects on this board doubted it!
Well is is now 7.25p and I say it is going to fly. The usual suspects and a new prt are doubting this!
I will be right and this will fly! These results are amazing!
I probably have more invested than all of you and I am going nowhere because this really is going to fly just like I told you all!
ACTUAL FACTS?? ARE YOU DENSE?? This whole company is only worth £70m according to market cap yet:
2021 EBITDA $65M, REAL NET PROFIT $18M
2022 Forecast EBITA $80M, Real net profit $35m.
Further growth and dayrate increases predicted after this!
This is gonna fly and those are the facts! tsr
I suspect mcatee is taking off/selling today :)
If this stock hasn't "taken off" with this news and visible numbers,I don't think it will take off unless someone takes it out.I have been saying this all along that the numbers are already known to the market.
@ amtec - 50m raise isn't happening.the board seems to be leaning into issuing warrants - thats ur worst case scenario.Also net debt was 371m as of 12/2022 and they have already collected cash worth $30m since then from the 2021 receivables. So deleveraging is happening at decent clip
These are great results for the company and very positive outlook. Some of you are too bullish, some too bearish. Strategic patience here is key. It's most definitely not a value trap.
In terms of the banks/warrants/equity raise....they provided some interesting clarification to their choices:
1. Raise $50m (issuing well north of 700m shares at your customary discount to current price levels). Ouch!
2. Effectively raise only c. $10m (via issuance of warrants to banks equivalent to a "mere" 132m shares or 11.5% of the company at 6 pence). Nice!
While neither option is ideal under normal circumstances, in the context of this company option 2 would be a splendid outcome. So the banks would have 11.5%.....not that big of a deal! Any indeed they confirm as of 31-Dec-21 option 2 was the more likely. Any of course perhaps we'll all get luck y and they'll refinance entirely later this year and this all becomes a moot point.
Also nice to see (am surprised, as my calculations say differently) that they expect to be below 4.0x leverage by year end.
Go do one. If your going to say this is going to fly then write some actual facts about why. All your doing is filling the board with cr@p that no one wants to read.
Wow it’s flying so high I can hardly see it.
In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king! Have faith
Not wrong at all, I only ever mentioned that the company needs to raise $50m, guess what that’s still the case.
The Group successfully concluded a US$ 27.8 million equity raise in June 2021 which prevented an event of default on its loan facilities. Under these facilities, the Group is required to raise a further US$ 50 million of equity by the end of 2022 or issue 87.6 million warrants entitling the Group's banks to acquire 132 million shares, or 11.5% of the share capital of the Company, for a total consideration of GBP £7.9 million, or 6.0 pence per share.
The Group is exploring the various contractual options available per the current bank terms to take place by the end of 2022. As disclosed, the two options available are the raise of US$ 50 million equity or the issuance of 87.6 million warrants giving potential rights to 132 million shares if exercised, which would result in cash proceeds to the Company of £ 7.9 million. As at 31 December 2021, neither of the two contractual scenarios had been ruled out. The Board however consider the issuance of warrants to have a slightly higher chance of occurrence.
While Amtech is wrong, I don't see how you are right either. Barely budged on this earnings, which was already expected. No buyers willing to punt on this and this is a classic value trap
Stick with me, u will be wich
We r rich
Thought you’ve have had the RNS by now, must be saving it for that dreaded Friday RNS. That or they are waiting for the ink to dry on the $50m cash raise.
This is going to fly tomorrow!!
Cant wait for these results!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fasten your belts! Good luck all!
Apart from that dipstick Amtech who is not invested of course!
Results this week innit ?
Without the raise
If the raise the $50m
Not sure if you noticed, but they are generating positive cashflows and can reduce that debt to just above 3x mcap by the end of the year. All else equal, mcap should double?
Sorry over 4x