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Hi Phil_2018 - If translation #24 is anything to go by, it would seem the original consortium is no longer in the mix -
"J1 - So, this meeting did not take place and the consortium was not formed because of it. Which American companies were there and approximately how much investment were you talking about, Mr. Zaza?
Zaza - There was talk of a multi-billion dollar investment. The market capitalization of both companies exceeded $ 20 billion"
Having said that, the story around this always varies.
For example, with regard to the meeting that the consortium wanted with the GD. In some translations he says the consortium was planning to travel to Georgia to meet the GD, in some he says they where all already in Georgia when the GD refused to meet. The bare bones of the story remains the same about the proposed meeting, but the details differ widely.
My last post showed how the comments go from 'thinking' about a consortium, to a consortium being 'agreed'. Appreciate he is riffing on a theme and playing to an audience, (and its a translation) but I hope we see more consistency on these key points.
Erazzel, well I could quite see myself in a Dynasty/Dallas type of setup, lol. Then again a quick buck could mean I get my hands on some decent money before growing a long grey beard ;)
They are not looking for a quick buck.
All depends on the PSA extension if possible past 2027 otherwise their feasibility, study represents unjustified investment....
I've only banged on about State Oil and GG being the blockers here since 2015. Been tracking this since 2004. Supposedly its just a lucky guess i have made.
I'm guessing that ZM will be pursuing the same goal of forming a consortium in the weeks and months ahead. If the field yield is large and can continue for years ahead I can see the benefit of retaining some shares.
What's your thoughts erazzel and any other members on why this path has been chosen and whether it's the best one?
it was for a 250 well program overtime. This is going back to 2015/ 2016. The tail end of SN's interviews before the handover to spokesman ZM. This was to escalate up to 10,000 barrels per day by 2022.
Erazzel, how so? How did Zaza come to the conclusion that this was the best way forward?
I'm guessing on any relist, if any relist, it would make it possible for investors to decide whether they wish to sell or hold, or to just sell a part of their shareholding. I assume though that the share value would be less than money from a buyout payout as the SM would be valuing for the whole lot.
In a consortium I would assume FRR would have a slice of that large pie.
I'm sure in one of the interviews he said they were 'illegally frozen' obviously without substantiation he can say what he wants.
Now that we have given lot of block 12 back and zaza is talking 6 months to drill again 1 year to produce, do we think the consortium is still on the table? Sounds like that particular opportunity may have passed as Zaza is now using it as stick to best the government with.
There was never a buy out on the cards.
It was always going to be development with others.
This was stated multiple times by ZM.
Thanks Looed, things are looking a lot more positive on this share than they were a few weeks ago when it looked like we might lose the lot. Its looking like US support really weighed in heavy in the end and hopefully the Georgian Elections will result in a less hostile position to FRR.
Knowing that a consortium was the way that FRR was interested in moving last year is interesting news when we were all in the dark on what was happening. It's good now knowing more of what has been going on :) I know most of us on this board have been hoping for a buy out, so where would forming a consortium leave us? That I assume would mean FRR going forward as a company instead of being swallowed up and a payout by a SM. I'm assuming a multiple billion dollar development of the field would mean each FRR share worth a lot more money and presumably some sort of dividend in the future?
I think FRR's position will be strengthened a lot potentially by the releasing of the Arb judgement (minus the commercially confidential stuff of course) in showing that the GG had no grounds to threaten seizure of the field and obstruction of FRR's activities.
Looks like Zaza has gained momentum here and some real positive movement can be made here.
Mole / Dulwichman / Arsenal
By the time I have formatted the translations, cut & pasted here, then into the archive I get to see the patterns in talking points. Zaza mostly appears on Opposition-run TV so the political agenda is clear.
The emphasis on gas is relatively new, as is the talk of depths.
The rehash of the salaries issue is also new (maybe he had knowledge on the recent protest, and there are now multiple news reports being reposted across all the Govt friendly news platforms about yesterdays events).
He has never explained why accounts are frozen and hasn't really been challenged to explain this issue.
The 'consortium' was first mentioned a few months ago but is mentioned more frequently now. The story does seem the same, and yet also feels a bit different with each retelling. For example -
Translation #27 - "Last year, in 2019, because of our excellent drilling results, we decided to form a consortium with two more American companies to launch a multibillion-dollar drilling program to increase our gas production."
Translation #24 - "after 2013, when the interference in our activities became very intense, we could not drill as many wells as we had planned, we could not carry out our operations and we could not make the investments of the scale we thought we would. For example, last year we thought of forming a consortium with two large American companies and launching a multi-billion dollar development program"
End June he stated - "In the fourth quarter of 2019, we agreed with two other American companies (one company has a market capitalization of 23 billion and the other 20 billion) to build a consortium similar to that in the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, where oil and gas will be extracted and began Large-scale extraction of oil and gas in Georgia."
The statements about the refusal to meet never gets an explanation. We haven't seen the Govt side pressed on this issue, nor have we seen any outright denial of this point.
Lots of what is said has remained consistent throughout such as the "they only won on two points" argument. For a while the Award was hardly mentioned at all, but that has become a talking point again.
He hasn't been pressed on, nor offered up, plans to get things going with the "1%". Even the amount of land in play is vague. He confirms the land has gone back as per Award, but won't be drawn on what assets remain.
The recent talk about timelines is new, and the first deadline should be as early as next week when he has agreed to release the Award. Hopefully we don't get a "circumstances dear boy circumstances" type excuse and we finally start to get some much need clarity.
Excuse my spelling and grammar mistakes - phone message never produces perfect English - that said - us Scots make up our own words anyway ??
“So again I pose a simple question why would you not meet a consortium introduced by Frontera?
Is it because of malign oligarch influence per the GD are corrupt narrative?”
I think the obvious answer here is, and always has been since 2013, the government in power don’t want block 12 developed by and American company. We can only read between the lines here based on evidence provided through various media channels, but it’s clear that the block on finances, deals, contracts has been tactical by GOGC - they want FRR gone! We are dealing with very corrupt people here, backed by one of the most corrupt regimes in the world, so fair play or standard practice does not apply here Mole.
The very fact a consortium was in the midst of being created clearly indicates they had a commercial plan. This would have been implemented if the Government had wanted to support it. According to Zaza they didn’t even meet ??! Who ignores such a huge investment unless you are being manipulated.
I don’t see any other scenarios here regarding what FRR did or didn’t do - it would make no difference. They were stopped from full commercialisation because this It was a threat to Russia’s influence over Europe’s energy requirements.
I hope we see progress before the elections but I’m sceptical - the corruption runs deep and it appears they’ll say or do anything to prevent FRR from fully exploiting this large asset. October is too long far away.
Just to add a little of the most recent utterance from Mr Mole. It should not be forgotten that in the past we add NOMAD to somewhat restrain any comments of a Company Director and perhaps even more a CEO. We all know that Zaza went as close to the limit during this period but he should not be blamed in this area as it is rather in the job description to promote the Company.
We have a situation from de listing onwards where no such constraint exists for a considerable period of time , much of which had no commentary at all- personalty given what we have found out this may well again be a reasonable approach for multitude of reasons and I suspect we have only found out part of the story , and yes I share the frustration during this period of lack of contact with us as not only shareholders but in general very loyal shareholders.
As things have moved on to the recent weeks , we know have almost daily interviews etc taking place all of which have elements of positivity but coming from where and for what reason? . My own view is that Most of what is taking polace is completely Political ( and high politics at that)and there in lies the dangers of interpretation. Firstly there are no constraints coming from a Nomad or any other independent body, Secondly it is a completely different way to use language and as we all know the art of Politics is the art of the POSSIBLE rather than the factually based art of probable (but still may not happen - "circumstances dear boy circumstances" .
It does seem clear to me that Zaza still has the gift of the gab in terms of promoting the Company ( I would say perhaps too well from a Company Director point of view) but it is the game of politics he is playing where exaggeration is the norm. I can only hope he is being advised well.
At the end of the day the only real fact we have is that (and against all odds in my view) the Company is still alive, we can only only guess why but I will put it down to friends in high places. I am not convinced this will win the day on its own but it certainly helps and I am looking forward to the day when Zaza and his business colleagues can concentrate on making business deals and a degree of normality comes back into play and can leave the Politics to the big boys.
Wishful thinking you may say - well we have got this far when many would have given up.
Very much looks like the biggest piece of delivery ZM can do over next 2/3 weeks, is the release of the arbitration full report, if not then the ruling.
The above, is the one thing that will show all 100% who is right & obviously GOGC have to agree.
Maybe one other way, is to have the formal backing of what ZM has been saying by American Ambassador, if at all possible.
Sonny they are not facts they are unsubstantiated comments.
You have to step back here and ask a couple of simple questions.
Why would you could you freeze a bank account? Well the normal reason for that is due to non payment of a debt. So why was the account frozen - well to me either FTI were involved or FRR have not paid a debt for instance the mineral license fee would suggest. That is what a decent interviewer would ask.
As for the 2 majors. Again it's puzzling. The carrot on a string of the 2 majors has been dangling since FRR defaulted on the debt to Outrider. We know about a mou with baker Hughes for the oil operations of which nothing has been heard of since even from baker hughes. Today we hear the target was the deep gas - last week I thought it was the oil but would need to cross check what Zaza is saying in these interviews. But the GOGC statement from last week implied deep gas may not be in scope of mineral license. Is that the real issue? BP name was floated in the court papers emails once. But they would not fit the sizing. The nomad had seen some documents with recognisable names in 2018. So it seems to me that at least one of the partners are not BP and BH. My initial thoughts given sizing was schlumberger. The Shah Deniz consortium are the natural fit and a puzzle why they are not all over this if it's there but too small to fit the companies.
So again I pose a simple question why would you not meet a consortium introduced by Frontera?
Is it because of malign oligarch influence per the GD are corrupt narrative?
Is it commercial for instance because the arbitration was already underway and around that time frontera had been already attempting to transfer the asset to FRR US? Why would such a consortium not then support FRR in the arbitration? FRR went into the final round of the arbitration with no legal team in place and without their company secretary.
FRR may well have potential consortium names in the wings but that is irrelevant unless they have standing to develop the asset and that requires the ownership question to be sorted out. How has loss of 99% of the block effected that one wonders?
Interesting and at times entertaining as the media shows what is needed is a plan around how you get the consortium if it exists on the ground working. What does frontera want to do that and can they back up the big talk with concrete and financed proposals.
Or are they currently now running the clock down to October and hoping for a change of govt meanwhile can they keep FTI and Outrider off their back in the other stream of litigation. Meanwhile the loan note maturity date nears.
maybe sonny but at least another 12 months lol pipe dream at the moment
Many thanks Looed for all your efforts. More facts from zaza than waffle imo.
more waffle from zz then
can kicking is in the genes
what about the hope situation ?
Thanks ZyDer and that bit stood out to me as well. First time I can recall seeing a timeline in relation to this.
Many translations, dealing with money, finding and dealing with translator, cutting & pasting etc. Onerous amount of time.
Thanks VERY much.
Lots of this translation has been quite difficult reading but this bit is about as subtle as a brick
Zaza - We can not do this today because the problems, the obstacles, the contradictions that we have with the government, do not allow us to increase the volume of work and increase gas extraction. When the government violates all the terms of the contract, it gives no confidence to either the company, or the investor, or the investment banks, with which we have been working for years, to give us additional capital and money to expand the work here. Today, if the government tells us that it is ready to play constructively, in 6 months we will be able to resume drilling new wells, which means that in 1 year from now, we will be able to start extracting natural gas from new wells.