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From a purely financial point of view the impact on India isn't that serious.
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/surging-india-virus-cases-may-derail-recovery-ratings-outlook-stable-sp-2021-05-07/
So to sum up there are financial and logistical reasons why US shale won't bounce back until 2022 at the earliest - another green light.
Hello Epip,
Just an observation to add to that would be that I'm seeing a lot of US producers with really bad hedging-positions. Swaps and collars reaching out to mid -22 in the $38-50 WTI range for mayor parts of their productions. They won't be spending money anytime soon, and the general tone from the better placed producers is really massive debt reduction going forward with low single digit growth.
This will sure change when oil prices reach meaningfully higher levels within the not so distant future, but I'm afraid the current slow recovery in rig count may be a systemic issue with depleted, old equipment that were built during the last boom. There have been a lot of scraping and very little replenishment of equipment all across the industry over the last 5 years that will surely create some rather unpleasant bottlenecks regardless of how high the price of oil goes.
We're in a great position for what will inevitably happen next.
Best, HMH
I don't think we should place too much emphasis on US shale thsi year. Production won't decline hard as some prognosticators reckon, but neither will it shoot up like some on here reckon. The big shale guns are religiously parroting shareholder returns as their mantra for 2021 and will hold their horses till early Q4 at the very least, depending on what oil prices do in the meantime. OPEC+ production is the key factor that can influence oil prices more than Shale will in 2021. EOG and a couple of other large shalers have gone on record saying that they don't see themselves returning to meaningful growth until OPEC+ surplus is out of the way and that will be well into 2022.
All that's holding back oil prices from breaking out into the 70s/80s is Covid resurgence in India and once that stops being thr focus of oil markets sometime inside the next 2 to 3 weeks, an upside breakout WILL happen. All hard commodities are front-running fiscal stimulus and the massive money supply growth this year an next - Copper has just all-time highs as you'd have noted. I'm not saying oil wil go there given that supply is not constrained like it is for Copper, but a solid breakout is incoming, IMO.
Bodes well for leveraged oil players like us.
GL...
I will try and find some info on employment rates in the US shale oil industry - that should give a good insight into how the industry is performing.
Mrc/d
Looks like US oil production is on an inexorable decline in 2021 !
Should continue to perk up oil prices as a record bounce back in global economy gets underway !
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ducs-wont-save-u-s-oil-production/
There is a good chart in here that shows a shifted rig count and production. The projection is for a decline from March through September.
Chilting -good to here you are still with us
They need to start drilling an awful lot more wells to grow production. I don’t think it is a concern for this year or next.even the optimistic EIA is predicting a long road back to pre COVID production levels so if demand recovers the world is going to be short of oil.
mrc
Not traded out, just looking for facts - any rebound of US production is sure to be a major factor re the price of oil.
The main reason for posting the report from January was to highlight the extra pipeline capacity - with that constraint removed any bounce back could be much larger than anticipated.
There is so much contradictory information being published that it is hard to know just what is happening.
Hopefully E121 will be able to give some insight.
As I said, a rebound of US shale would be highly impalpable, so strong evidence that it cannot happen will be most welcome - we do need that evidence otherwise what we could see is a very sharp spike in Brent followed by a deep dive.
Posting very misleading information. Report that is 5 months out of date!
Forecast was for the Permian to reach 4.4 million barrels in January which it missed by a mile!
Permian is the only basin that is growing, and it is hardly stellar.