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If you arrange this spreadsheet by trade value, you'll see a large £195,569.24 trade from yesterday has only just been reported today:
https://api.londonstockexchange.com/api/gw/lse/download/DDDD/trades
I wonder if they have crashed the price to make a large after-hours buy. I will post back if I find anything.
grrr! hovering lower than my avg now.. don't like it!
If no news by Friday morn...it's going to be a big blue day by Close of play.
Checked the last two mornings and no RNS so didn't bother to watch the market too closely. Seems the heat has come out the price since the highs of 180p however nothing has changed fundamentally. The only thing changing is are we getting closer to news with each minute that passes. Good few that bought into VAL on the highs feeling wounded im sure and maybe going into portfolio protection mode. I was not overly impressed with their news and felt i pull back would ensue which it has. I declared the other day sold my free carry for a tidy 66p with an avg of 11p it was good to me. Anyway back to DDDD if news tomorrow then the last 2 days will be forgotten about very very quickly. Still maintain my target of 400p+ on the day or within a few days of good news on our IBS trial and climbing to 600p+ as we get further into Q4 awaiting our Covid Phase II trial results.
A lot of jitters today.
Hopefully no negative surprises tomorrow.
Afternoon all.
Not too sure about the " last day " as the RNS could be early Oct.
What i will say is, i hope the RNS is of full detail and followed up with either a presentation or interview, i note the pretty lackluster VAL RNS yesterday, causing a lot of questions and investor nerves.
DP has built 4D up in recent weeks with interviews, giving investors high hopes, i now await the news that backs up his ambitions and success.
Same with Parkinson’s at 4bn, actually - arguably the relatively small size of those markets just speaks to the lack of good solutions out there already.
Another day with impending news, another raid on the stop losses and skittish traders. This time I happened to be topping up as the price spiked down at 10:37 - hammered the buy button and finally managed a top up at 144.8p! Normally I get spiked the other way, so lovely to get one the right way round. :)
Happy to tuck them away in the bottom drawer for at least a couple years. So much potential here. JR2 - you cite $1.5bn market for IBS... You could easily see Blautix ultimately growing the size of that market if it proves to be as good as anticipated.
Staring to rise again
Hold for GOLD. At some point the SP is going to fly !! Hold tight folks...;o))
MM bottom fishing?
Very early for Merck or anyone to buy the company. 4D pharma is only now beginning to show its teeth and ... value.
It would make more sense for Merck (or others) to buy 4D after for, say, a few billion dollars in 12-18 months (assuming positive outcome of part B trial phase I/II in oncology, IBS and progress on the neurodegeration front), rather than buy it now for say USD 1 billion.
Most importantly, I believe 4D management would wish to unlock a lot more of the potential before they even talk about takeover.
That's a general sector trend ... not just particular to 4D. Most licensing deals (or even takeovers) would concern companies with drugs that have just completed successful phase I/II or phase II trials.
After all, current arrangement suits everyone: Merck is close enough to be able to move quickly and do further deal(s) with 4D as positive results continue to flow out of 4D's R&D powerhouse. And even though, the top secret vaccine collaboration project is a tight ship ... we are likely to see some news emerge.
Terrier
It is very difficult to value the company without inside information on success rates for the pipeline.
As a random value upwards of £1 billion.
H202
What valuation would you put on the company?
I suspect Merck may also have some other ideas if they can have the whole company for relatively modest outlay why trigger milestone payment?
Could well be something going on in the background. I'm sure the company already know the results. At least we have seen the bed-wetters leave the party today and yesterday. Clears the pipes out.
Terrier.. they probably working through that with Merck now
What we don't know is that these results may trigger a stage payment from Merck...;)
Fall seems a bit more persistent than one might expect. Here is a possibility or speculation:
the IBS news are widely expected to be anything between moderately good to excellent. However the company will need funding at some point and why leave it to the last minute? They may be looking at announcing the results and a placement to follow suit. If that's indeed the case negotiations must be on-going and the price could be anywhere in the 125-150p band: the better the results the higher the price of the placement. Even at 125p it would be a vote of confidence in the company given where the earlier placements took place.
This is total speculation as, otherwise, I don't see why there is such prolonged effect on 4D price. Also, the price isn't high enough for parties to start shorting the price.
Good to see the weak leaving.
Yep - feels like SP dropping on inpatient holders cashing in. Short sighted
Might not be the last day tomorrow CEO said end of Sept, beginning of October so don’t panic if RNS doesn’t drop tomorrow.
Huge Q4 for this company JMO,DYOR.
I’m in balls deep GLA.
'Could' not 'will' liquid1.
In general and across sectors it is better if there is a fall in the price leading up to the announcement of major news ... always within reason and as long as movements happen above the long term average. If we go much below 145p today and for some time then ... it's more difficult to attribute the fall only to stop losses and look for the persistent seller / global crash/ other reasons.
And a a couple more points:
- this share has risen from high 30s, 40s and 50s to almost 180p yesterday. There is bound to be turbulence, corrections, profit taking and MM interventions (lacking a better word).
- 4D is mainly a long term investment not least because of the sector. It became a short term one AS WELL because of the fire sales by the funds in late spring/early summer. That was precisely when the company was close to start reaping the harvest of many years of efforts. And... it seems to be only the exciting start.
And by the way, it's not necessarily the last day before the results.