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Dave.....hope your team wins.....could be good omen for next week....TTFN Reg
Fair one mate.
3 scenarios then
1- Sell ESS for something around market value = SP rises
2- Takeover = SP rises
3- Hold because If MM and Schroders are manipulating this SP for takeover and it doesn't go through = SP will rise
Just got to ride this **** storm of a period.
Anyway, catch u later Reg. switching phone off and watch some football
.......Further Schroders small sell last week.....was designed.....to keep sp low enough.....to stop management from doing a fund raise.....Check mate....end game here.....no doubt about it....Reg
......I will stick my neck out here....This is how I read it.....CVC may have been acting for Serco two months ago.....Therefore its probable CVC/Serco....may launch a joint bid for Capita....CVC taking education.....Serco.....Capita businesses which are currently being restructured.....Schroders are probably pulling the strings behand the scenes....Reg
Dave,....looks like window dressing to me.....Could be very good news....Two months ago Capita announced a third of its offices would close.....This in response to rumored takeover interest.....Schroders have also more that doubled their shareholding since then....Conclusion....the restructuring has made the whole company more saleable....in the event ESS is not sold.....Reg
HQ move is old news.... Netflix moving in and the size of the office space being reported will result in millions of savings.
Just hope it was a decision not to renew lease.
New office HQ premises is a lot smaller so hopefully big savings
Reg, I'm starting to think more towards a takeover if ESS doesn't go
......ie seller takes on the cost of restructuring before being acquired.....Reg
Dave......Capita also announced last night.... N Power Wear House Peterlee office. s to close....259 work there.....Capita are in consultation with unions.....Conclusion...HQ and N Power announcement .... could be window dressing before takeover.....Reg
https:// www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-10-07/netflix-triples-london-office-space-with-new-headquarters
Looks like Netflix are moving into Capitas old West End office.
Good news.... hopefully it was a decision not to renew the lease rather than cutting it short and paying a termination fee. Must be millions in savings.
@NOFEAR, DAve1, Reg, etc all the helpful one's, thanks again for all the info and leg work you are putting in, much appreciated.
No worries NOFEAR
Thanks Dave_1, You're much welcome.(*__*)
If we want understand how the mind works behind those leading investment funds like Bain Capital,
we need to review all their recent investment activities. By knowing how they're operating during those
large and small purchases of distressed companies debt, we will have a rough guess how the rest of
the investment funds would be operating and in particular what they would most likely to be offering for
the purchase of Capita ESS and be knowingly aware how desperate Capita want to sell their ESS.
The most likely as my previous 1st October 3-part post explained that the Francisco Partners would be
the ones who would be offering the most for Capita ESS. The time has arrived to investigate what the FP
are doing as of lately and what is their typical percentage that they would offer for a software asset like
Capita ESS.
I'm off to watch a movie. Take care Dave_1 and everyone long shareholder in Capita. GLA,DYOR. NoFear
NOFEAR... top research mate.
Thanks for all you do here. Much appreciated
Dave_1
Correction, it should read as:
Talking about vultures. Bain Capital would ever had bought Capita ESS divisional unit as they would had offered
at the most 31% of Capita requested priced for sale figure £500 to £700millions.
So, Bain Capital would had paid 31% of Capita ESS £500min Millions to £700max Millions wanted sale price
or better said they would possibly paid between £155min. Millions to £217max. Millions. This is what I think
Bain Capital would offered in the second round of bidding for Capita ESS.
Dave_1
Talking about vultures. Bain Capital would ever had bought Capita ESS divisional unit as they would had offered
at the most 31% of Capita requested priced for sale figure £500 to £700millions.
So, Bain Capital would had paid 31% of Capita ESS £500min-£700max. Millions wanted sale price or £384 and
£537Millions
Bain Capital is not new into buying distressed Companies debts.
On the 15th October they closed two major buyout debt deals:
15th October 2020
Bain Capital now owns Virgin Australia as its creditors voted in favour for the US private equity firm to purchase the airline for A$3.5 billion (£1.9bn, €2.2bn).
15th October 2020
Greece's National Bank in deal to sell bad loans to Bain Capital.
ATHENS, Oct 16 (Reuters) –
National Bank (NBG) , one of Greece's largest lenders, said on Friday it agreed to sell its entire 100% stake in Cypriot credit company CAC Coral to Bain Capital Credit as part of efforts to clean up its balance sheet from impaired loans.
CAC Coral holds a portfolio of non-performing corporate, small business, consumer and mortgage loans of a total gross book value of about 325 million euros ($380.7 million), mainly legacy bad loans.
NBG said the deal was agreed at about 31% of the portfolio's gross book value and would be capital neutral for the bank. Conclusion of the sale is subject to approval by the central bank of Cyprus and Greece's bank rescue fund HFSF, which holds a 40% stake in NBG.
Bain Capital Credit is a global credit specialist with $39.7 billion in assets under management, investing in leveraged loans, high-yield bonds and distressed debt.
Nofear. Reg called Schroders involvement from the start too be fair to him.
As my previous posts state the debt repayment obligations of £320 million before half year 2022 will determine this.
If ESS doesn't get a decent return and doesn't sell and the SP drifts low to the point market cap is well below £300 million then the possibility of going to investors to "tap them up" for funds to repay debt won't work. Which will result in more pressure to sell.
Still think H1 results was manipulated in a way to help produce a profit for full year. Just don't think we will have enough time in the event of ESS not being sold to full year results.
Think the vultures will be queuing up and a takeover by spring.
Hi DIrective22,
I forgot to add you to my previous post list of Capita long share holders.
Please accept my apologies.
Smile.(*__*).NoFear
Good Evening Dave_1 Thanks for your kind support
"Do you really think the MM are holding down the SP for a possible takeover?"
I've got that inner feeling that Capita would like to asap sell their most valuable asset [ESS division Unit] to avoid perhaps not only for replinishing their cash balance sheet, but also to stop any potential hostile take over bids which would often back off it their intended takeover target were to sell their most valuable family silver or better said their ESS unit.
So what are Capita Plc planning to achieve from possibly selling their ESS unit ? If I dare to speculate, perhaps after the publishing of their August 2020 interim results were they said they would be looking to sell their ESS unit after making losses, this course of action would had been taken since they knew they were at risk from a hostile takeover bid and by anticipating such hostile bid risk, they put the word out that their family would be put for sale and therefore kept the hostile bids out of the way.
Perhaps, once they managed to sell their ESS, if any hostile bid did indeed came along, they would not get to have the ESS unit as it would had been sold and therefore Capita Plc would had gained a higher market capital with more room to negotiate any potential welcome or hostile bids.
[Crown Jewels]
This is the tactic of selling off certain highly valued assets of the company subject to the bid, those that are of greatest interest to the raider.
UK Defences against hostile bids and Strategic defences
https://kfknowledgebank.******.co.uk/financial-management/mergers-and-acquisitions
So, Dave_1,
Which of these possibilities would apply to Capita Plc ?
Will they want to sell their ESS and put the cash on their balance sheet to keep anyone from targeting them with an hostile bid knowing that by selling their family silver this would keep off
the possible risk of a takeover as whoever was interested in a takeover would shy away and
Capita would then continue to operate as a going concern company with a stronger balane sheet ?
Or once they sold their ESS, they would welcome any bids for a takeover but for a much higher price that would achieved having their ESS unit on the books ? As you know their educational software market value of Capita ESS unit is going down as more competitors are grabbing bigger percentages from Capita ESS ever so reducing monopoly in the school sectors, ect.ect. The sooner they sell their ESS unit the better for Capita.
Also, not saying there will be dividend cos we all know it's clear as day, not dividend anytime soon.
@Zedmans, Owl bought his shares at 1.4£ (I believe) and been dropping ever since for all the reasons out there continuously. Basically, it's a lost cause for him and he will not make his investment back anytime soon even if Capita is back on course with their restructuring or whatever that is Capita wants to give reason for.
If Capita reaches 60p on Monday (Which I'm not saying that it will happen because I'm not a ramper), most of us here will make quite a good profit but it will still be more than 50% down for Owl. So it's all about your average share price you're holding. I'm at 39p.
Same goes to dividend. Though i might not be invested the same amount as owl, my average price can fetch more number of shares with lesser amount of investment. So depending on how much we are invested at what average price, most of us will be getting the same amount of dividend as Owl.
Nofear.... also add no one could understand the buy to sell ratio answers the SP wasn't moving regarding itv...Very similar to what we have experienced this week
NOFEAR, well done mate.
Do you really think the MM are holding down the SP for a possible takeover?
I went through all this last month with ITV and Goldman Sachs .... (all rumours may I add so If anyone in itv can back me up here it will be appreciated) Goldman sold some shares as strong rumours were circulating that they were orchestrating the takeover, rumours of takeover fizzled out so they sold some and the SP rocketed 50% in 2 weeks.
Do you think we have the same scenario here with Schroders?
Bertles
Your quote:
"Errrrrr yes you did.....they are your words and utterly laughable too
Ridiculous comment. LOL"
Part of my quote:
"I've managed to get a silent reaction from Schroder Plc by reducing a small amount of their major position in Capita.
Don't you know that when asked, investment funds like Schroders Plc, would never admit to rumoursor markets speculations that nowdays it's easily and ften disseminated by the financial media news channels with neither of the involved parties denying or admiting to the published media rumours.
Unless Schroders Plc publicly discloses their reasons for closing a very minor position in Capita Plc, nobody will ever know the truth behind such tiny downturn move especially when they were almost on weekly basis increasing their Capita Plc major shareholder. This constant increase of Schroders positions, was making it look more like they were planning to defend their substantial investments in Capita Plc from the other Capita major holders and have more of a control over the company present and future operational decisions.
If and I say it again... If I had or will have any positive or negative response from the Instituional Investors due to my on-and-off directed twitter campaign, it will most likely never be acknowledged as most ii would rather keep silent and await the right moment for when to let markets officially know with an RNS.
So, here we are I'm finding myself trying to explain to your two brain cells that struggles to keep switched on as I overload you with 'apparent nonsense'. My question to you... Why it bothers you so much what I've been posting about the bidding for Capita ESS unit, and Schroders possibly reading my twitter posts and then maybe or just maybe, they decide to 'silently' close a small Capita position? Frankly, you will never know my twitter campaign activity results.
I can today confirm in this forum that I got a very good result with thousands of impressions and clicks received over my posted tweets.
So please Bertles and OWLS, take another DUMP.
Smile.(*__*).NoFear
Quote by No Fear.....
"Since my twitting campaign took off, I've managed to get a silent reaction from Schroder Plc by reducing a small amount of their major position in Capita"
Errrrrr yes you did.....they are your words and utterly laughable too
Ridiculous comment. LOL
Great post by NOFEAR. Owls/Bertles I’m struggling to understand your reasons or ambitions to be posting on others opinions or research on Capita in such a negative way? What is gained by this?
All I can say is we have held tight so far and aiming to make profit in which we all aspire to do so. Can’t tell if your both invested or not with the negative comments but yet so much interest on the Capita BB?? Or maybe just keyboard warriors either way enjoy the weekend all and let’s get ready for the blue Monday. Peace out Z