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I think it will go through. Although it just depends on a few large SH.
The market has been steady at 910…..no one has pushed it higher and there has been no sign of a counter offer. Most of the recent buyers will take the certain cash return and reflect that many pharma have lost 20-30% recently.
On the other hand if elliot votes no, they are almost obliged to find another way of realising $ 2bn.
General meeting is tomorrow so not long to wait now.
Keeping us in the dark about voting intentions
Sounds like a plan for Elliott. In which case the sp will gradually rise towards 925 (stopping a little short for the time lag to settlement). Elliott will need to announce its acceptance a few days ahead of the voting then the deal will be in the bag but they may hope to create a little uncertainty to pick up more in the market before announcing.
They bought more yesterday, today’s 8.3 saw them go above 14%. Why would you buy at this level, vote against for the price to bomb. Simply kill it and buy up all you want at 700 if you really believe in the long term.
One of their core business areas is arbitrage and that is what they are playing out now knowing that they control the outcome.
Unless their plan is to ensure they are in a position to kill it and buy up the company post share price crash, the deal is done.
So PK do you think Elliott is maximising returns on 925…..and will accept?
Buying as much as it can with a known 1-2% gain…..which is much better than cash returns.
Nice summary Jatw.
8.3 announcement from Elliott shows they still buying, now up to 13.5%. They basically control the deal and now just skimming off the last bits of margin. Have to admire how they have worked this.
Some might see this as an opportunity to make 20p 2.5% relatively risk free if the deal is accepted.
There is no certainty of this and if the deal is voted down then there is a downside of 10-15% to accept.
Some still see a full value between 10 and 11 pounds…..if you are one of them there is potential upside of 10-20% from here……but you might need to wait a few years to see it.
My initial Clin holding came about by buying quantum when the initial approach was made the final offer was 25% higher from memory - but those shares are still underwater by about a pound after this bid……
Place your bets according to your level of risk and ability to act quickly when conditions change.
As an existing holder I am going to hold. I don’t think I will be adding.
If I held zero I would not buy now, but I would be tempted if the price falls on rejection of the bid. I am generally a buy and hold investor rather than a trader so I take a long view and am happy to ride out the peaks and troughs of the market.
Hi Jatw, on that basis does it make sense to buy at this price as the big boys like Elliot who have been increasing their stake at the 920 levels won't want it to drop so will either find a way to push it higher or accept the 925?
Improved offer highlights that the committed shares are still low and nowhere near the 75% needed.
They had to raise the bid otherwise it would have been voted down. Extra 3 weeks allow Elliot and others to see if they can find another buyer to breakup the business and offer a higher price. If not will they back the 925 bid.
925 has been agreed by both sides so what are the reasons for the current price of 896?
Looked like somebody dumped a heap at open - maybe they just have to buy back in discreetly having dumped the price ...
But yet the SP is still trading at 895.00 which seems strange to me.
925 is an improvement of 4.8% and matches the recent market price highs….so everyone can make a profit….but it is the least triton could do.
They reserve the right to raise the bid in the event of another offer emerging.
Increasingly it looks like it is down to Elliott and a few others to determine what happens.
I suspect this bid will be accepted.
Well done to those who sold last week…..the timing of this announcement has been poor/cynical for those who decided to sell over the weekend and placed orders, I suspect the MM have marked down the sp to catch those unsuspecting shareholders and pocket the increased offer….