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LPD - hope you are right. Would be nice to have a positive finish to the week.
Jamesy today was nothing to do with C19 and I'd hang my hat on volume generation today. Drop the price and flush out weak sellers and tempt in buyers. Get your 4 mill plus daily target. Airlines up today, in fact many stocks up, Gym Group static, Hollywood Bowl (Up about 2%) Both inside space sellers like us.
When the reason isn't clear and you are trying to find one - there probably isn't one.
Just accept it and tomorrow is another day.
Boosted our normal family grouping by 2 this time around by persuading parents to partake and why not. Imax booked.
I personally think that covid sentiment is the biggest driver of the drop rather than the case. I believe some media coverage is propaganda to push vaccination rates. Scotland a few weeks ahead of England in terms of schools returning and 7day rates are on a steep drop. England will follow. Haven't watched US closely but I suspect economy will take priority over restrictions from here on in. Some saying one film will not turn the tide but I think Bond really is that important for the whole industry. Its about getting some back into the way of going to the cinema. Fall is disappointing but I'm not selling any below 75p.
Just one thing mountainous Covid isn't on the rise. At the present time things are plateauing and that's on Infections, deaths and hospitalisations. I do track it daily and that's after schools back since Sept 3
The rest we know:
*What the court case is about and how we are doing (Very well imho) and our case is a lot stronger than many thought at the outset,
*Improving cash burn situation. ?
* F9, Black Widow, Jungle Cruise, Free Guy and Shang Chi better than expected,
* Disney now respecting the 45 day theatrical window for the rest of this year.
* Bond coming and pre-bookings are very good.
*Then the rest of the Q4 film slate: Including The Many Saints of Newark, Venom Carnage (Marvel), Halloween Kills (Halloween sequel), Dune, Last Night In Soho
Eternals (Marvel), Ghostbusters: Afterlife, House of Gucci (Lady Gaga), West Side Story and 3 good films to finish the year off with. Spider-Man: No Way Home, The King's Man and Matrix 4
* A move to a US listing.
I'd just put it down to another day on Cine and when there is an accumulation of good things happen the market makers move it the other way. Its been going on since reopening and successively improving Box Office. Sometimes it just gets moved down for no reason and then everyone tries to attribute a reason. Then it moves back up on an obscure day for probably no reason at all. Today our main sector travel and leisure did very well and reclaimed most of yesterdays falls, but not Cineworld.
If suppression is the name of the game here I might look at our US peers for any reaction to Bond. Advance ticket sales from what I can see (Still with two weeks to go) are going better than I have ever seen since reopening. I track one local cinema and virtually all showings on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday are close to capacity or sold out. The real advertising campaign for this film hasn't even started yet, here or the US!! The next week also starting to fill up nicely as well.
Going to book my own tickets now so I can at least get IMAX on the opening weekend.
Bonker/Deano cheers, appreciated.
As you know I held strong views on some and some of what went on here.
That and life has/is busier for me right now. Also not anything right now materially different to discuss productively means for now anyway I don't expect to be posting much/at all.
Things change so you might find me posting 100 X a day annoying individuals, who knows ;-)
Hope all well and don't stress about what you can't change :-)
Oct 1 Venom + Adams family 2 + many saints of Newark
Oct 8 Bond
Oct 15 Halloween Kills
Oct 22 Dune + Ron’s gone wrong
Nov 5 Eternals
Nov 12 Fantastic Beasts
Nov 19 Ghostbusters
Dec 10 West Side Story
Dec 17 Spiderman
Dec 22 Matrix
Next 2 weeks numbers will be down due to not much out but hopefully Shang chi , cop shop and cry macho can prop it up! Then after that we have loads of big releases! Can’t wait to see the box office numbers ps stay patient guys
Realisticinvestor That was this year 2021.not the same at all, Cine had been closed for months. So it's definitely NOT the same, Cineplex stopped paying there rent, lease agreements, film studio, producers, when they were fully open, in the first 3 months 2020
So you must be just digging for negitive news.
The main drop happened from 5th July 87p to the 15th 57 p, and we've never recovered since.
Almost 40 % drop in 10 days, and all 4 days before freedom day.
the drop could be related to option expiry, which is tomorrow. Read this -
market makers supposedly selling a large slew of options contracts as options expiry approaches this Friday. Friday, September 17, sees a quadruple witching, when four different derivative contracts expire simultaneously. These are stock options, index options, stock futures and index futures. This can lead to great intraday volatility, especially on Friday, with some wild swings as market makers look to hedge or flatten their positions ahead of the expiry. See an explanation of quadruple witching here and how it may impact equity markets.
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/quadruple-witching-spy-what-is-quadruple-witching-and-when-is-quadruple-witching-day-202109141100
Options expiry calendar -
https://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar
I don't know if this option expiry is only for US markets or global but CINE does have buyers/sellers all over the world.
Can someone do more homework on how CINE SP reacted with options expiry in March and June.
I think drop in March from 120s could be due to MMs selling purely to take profits. When CINE is opening up in April, there is no reason to sell but those who got in at the lows of last year must have taken the profit. Let's see next week how it goes. It definitely is in lows like last year so hopefully these market makers fanci another run up to £1.20 considering the good line up of films and Disney releasing all its movies for rest of 2021 exclusively to theaters.
Kettle and pot springs to mind…
https://www.cityam.com/cineworld-faces-legal-challenge-over-alleged-unpaid-rent/
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/947494
im there with you pal, Just looked on EQI, im down, 23k, feel gutted Too its a worry
But we have to sit this one out and wait until it comes good, Like the folks say its only a loss when you sell.
my Crystal balls are broken or else i would have sold & re-bought on the dips & highs. to try to recover, (I did that with BT & lost Big as missed the jump back in) so was wary of doing the same on a large loss just in case this jumped back up.
all things that can be crossed are.
Not at all Deano ,, Just my thoughts , Strong & long :-)
Hold strong all, top up if you can! I feel this share is being manipulated and will quickly bounce back on some good news in the coming weeks.
U been drinking forest haha wtf???
I’m afraid with , court litigation ongoing , a almost increase of upto 8% of shorter “sharks “ them that we know about “ and those below the 0.5%. , we do not then we are in their play pool , until good results on the 4th qtr are released & the cinemark is resolved .. :-)
I would not worry about the SP movement. The volumes have been low the last couple of weeks. Save a few odd days. Below 1/2 percent. There are not the shares on the open market anymore. The end of the court case, which Cineworld will win and Bond being released will see a big bounce back in share price. The shorts knowing this will try to drag the SP down and probably reduce their shorts soon. Wait it out till middle of October and then check the SP. IMO
Welcome back FI I’ve missed your posts although I don’t always personally agree and rarely comment it’s always good input and PW My fingers and toes are always crossed as I’ve said before and it’s getting quite uncomfortable now tbh???
Stay strong and good luck all fellow lth…
PW I’m approaching 50% and feel sick.
I’ve watched day 1 & 3, I couldn’t agree more regarding the sentiments of each counsellor’ approach, after yesterday testimony and the forced admission that they breached the contract and that it wasn’t anything to do with covid I’d hope common sense would break out and an agreement be reached, as I was discussing with Wellington earlier it’s probably wishful thinking because of professional reputation / ego etc it’s all in the judges hands, joining you with the crossed fingers and toes.
Mountainous
It's not a case of looking for quick returns, and a general decline is expected with market sentiment.
But on 5th July this was 87 and in 10 days it was battered down to 57 on 15th July, and never really recovered any of that enormous drop over 10 days.
It's left me for one nursing a 30k paper loss, so personally the way this share has performed I would be ecstatic to break even, I really would.
And with half of that loss in an isa and no means of averaging down, it well and truly sucks to be a shareholder.
There was never any reason or explanation for that almost 40% drop in 10 days just prior to freedom day.
I feel we were mugged off somehow.
Isn’t it fantastic to see the derampers back again with their 50p sp theory.
Reality is that we are in active litigation, COVID is on the rise, lockdown on the cards etc, so sentiment isn’t positive at this time. If you’re in this share and expecting a rise from 60 to 180 in a matter of weeks, you’re in the wrong place.
I bought more at about 61.8 earlier, my confidence remains. Just like latpulldown has said, watch the proceedings and see for yourself and you form your own opinion. But to expect rises everyday is a bit unrealistic, we are going to keep bouncing around in the 60-70 range for a while. A good result from this court will likely allow us to break out from it.
From what I’ve seen in terms of the attendance at the cinemas, the refurbishments going on etc, I’m very confident that we are in a good place imo.
Patience is key, remember that the stock market is a tool to transfer money from the impatient to the patient…
It does suck balls KickThePuss!! I'm 12k down, some alot more than me. Seriously I listened to the Court Case for 3 days, and not being bias at all Cineworld showed facts, Cineplex is showing "feel sorry for us" facts will win at the end of the day. It should of been settled out of court. Cineplex wanted to go to court.... So here we are. Fingers and toes crossed.
That is the point I was trying to make above FI.
Deferring a payment in itself isn't an issue, but the the extent (of time and amounts) was different to what they have done previously, and which I presume is why their lawyer was trying to make out it was (covid) by showing emails about washing your hands in January - when in fact our guy showed they weren't really concerned until later in March....that is all together what showed it was out of the ordinary course.
I didn't catch it all yesterday either, but I got the feeling he was building up to a point around the budgets and not being allowed to pay anything out that isn't on the budget for projects, or change lines within the budget - did he get to the point of this - or are we still waiting on that to drop? If not then I expect him to circle back to this and try catch the CFO off-guard.
Also, anybody else a little gutted there is no court today? (Pretty sad I know).
I’m just going to say it…
The SP sucks balls !!!
I’m really hoping that we win this case or at least don’t lose, it turn out that the case was the secret reason for the poor sp performance and it recovers upon conclusion. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh it’s hell for now though.
Hey funinvestor , nice for you to pop in , I hope it becomes more of a regular occurance
Buying some at 60p and selling at 65p... makes me a quick grand. Not a lot I know... but playing it anyway.
Money to be made here while you wait till 2022 for 1.00+