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Mention of cash below had me checking cash on hand at the end of last year's accounts for 2019 (stated 2018 in error below when I meant 2019 as last year)
- it stood a the highest ever, at least higher than the preceeding last 7 years I can see at a whopping, record breaking £4.880b !
That's more than the market valuation of some top FTSE100 companies!!!!
And it's lying in a drawer in the managers office inside a tin marked petty cash LOL!
Oooh there's cash aplenty in BT's petty cash tin to pay the windows cLeaner's et al :)
Ha! Hee! Yes, how does the full saying go? Something like:
Profit is vanity, cash is sanity?
Velo
Revenue = vanity
Profit = necessity
Cash = reality
In several of my posts I jump from reporting net profit in millions to billions even though analysts and BT themselves report in millions. That was deliberate on my part.
I wanted to sublimely remind without increasing post lengths that despite all the negatives BT is a giant cash making machine. £2b per year in net profit. Every year.
If a contest was offered that was free to enter where the prize was £1m in cash if you won but you had to cough up £1m in cash if you lost for an easy and simple test most would think the were goin to win easily.
All you had to do was speak out loud starting with £1 then say 2, then 3, then 4 and so on until - until you reached BT's annual net profit of just over £2 billion pounds.
I say it couldn't be done. BT's £2 billion net profit is too much for a human to even count it up £1 by £1 b
in one sitting without failing and stumbling once you got to the millions let alone the first billion.
Worth reminding oneself when highlighting all the negatives it's impossible to verbally count out loud without stopping for many, many rests, to state just one year's net profit.
A cash generating machine.
" Hey Velo, as I said couple of days ago, I’m expecting BT reporting to be better than the majority think. "
Yes, that's my opinion too, although it's notable that the serial under-estimaters that make up BT's official analysts have made their Q3 forecast the very lowest of all 3 forecasts this current financial year.!!!
As I joked in a post this is no time for those serial under-estimaters to become accurate - I hope :)
On that ADFN board someone has quoted a brokerage house forecasting that they believe Q3 will turn out to be uninspiring or words to thst effect. I've gone for the opposite a decent increase out if all the 3 quarters.
My nerves will be taught on Thursday morning as the series of posts by myself below have firmly nailed my opinions to he mast. No whinging no excuses. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. But check back all 2018 and I got Q1 and Q2 on the right side of £500m each.
So what can I say - With Q3, I'm going for the triple crown and a decent beating of the analysts forecasts. Pride before a fall and all that :)
Hey Velo, as I said couple of days ago, I’m expecting BT reporting to be better than the majority think.
I come at this from a slightly different position, I see some of the recent business contract losses to start fading away & I think some of BTs next generation products have had enough time to build enough momentum to start showing on their balance sheet, this momentum I expect to carry on building
Along with cost cutting (which might have brief negative impact) where they have to spend £1.50 to save a £1
Lastly pension, I think this is going to be lower than market expects.
I don’t think any of this will trigger a SP recovery, because better results through cost cutting needs to be replaced with new revenue streams. (Which is why I like BT sport).
I also note the better CS reporting from OFCOM there’s been a significant improvement, which helps shape future projects.
Logging off for tonight but a wee point in case my posts have come over a bit too bullish as if the world is 100% wrong and the real truth is hidden away if only you know where to look; as some might think, that if my posts turn out to be correct then when "the truth" gets revealed - the market will reward - and the SP should fly.
It hasn't so far, so why should it on Thursday? Bearish market sentiment? Potentially, also here's maybe why not.
List up all the things you've ever read that's put BT in the dog house, and are still some way from being sorted 100%.
Under performing revenue for starters.
Oh by the way, revenue next Thursday? I can analyse that in a single sentence:
It'll be down on last year's comparative period as will be the full year's forecast for revenue - down on previous years.
And some more to start you off . . .
Despite increasing net profits year after year, the all important EPS (Earnings per share) is down year after year.
Debt - this year is the worst ever for a staggering increase.
Pension deficit. Will be well sorted - in a decade's time, that is!
The company is "owned" as a political football. Treated as a monopoly it is hamstrung by regulations to prevent it under cutting rivals because it's seen as operating as a monopoly. It's competitive, but not allowed to be too competitive, hence maybe a further reason resulting in higher net profits, year after year.
It's tasked with building the country's entire fast broadband to every nook and cranny, but under regulations it won't be able to charge what it sees fit - the regulators will tell it what it can charge. Ergo it is "owned".
Go to a meeting stand up with my posts printed off, and read them out on how net profit is all set to keep on increasing - FACT! - and well into the future - as they all well know - and they'll say, "SO WHAT?" And start listing all the downers above and more, as the reason for keeping the SP as their prisoner.
But let's see if anything changes on Thursday. I'm quietly confident. Well perhaps the word quiet is not appropriate to apply to my posts - but you get my drift :)
PS.
I can list you up a load of positive fundamental metrics (loads!) where BT is beating the industry averages by a considerable margin. Quite a few indeed. (Seriously).
But in the long, long past, in the wrong conditions, deep value, cheap, undervalued, bargain stocks, can lie unappreciated for 20 years in the 'wrong' market conditions before being rewarded.
------------------
Will speak about the current oversold condition in the SP next week and how it will soon end. And I mean real soon. It always does. Maybe this Thursday?
- or leading up to Thursday, or maybe a week or two later, but soon.
I'm prepared to take bets on it. It's current down trend in the SP does not signify the end of the world :)
Spot on Steve.
We'd all do it if that was our job. You never dissapoint then, you always please on the day. But the downside is, the SP gets trammelled a bit until the full year comes in. Just need next Thursday to prove the same and it's baked-in.
Their Q3 forecast is the lowest of the year. Gulp. This is no time for those analysts to start getting it right!!!!
So, hoping they perform to past form for Q3, as their past record suggests they will.
velo have just read your post quickly once so am i right in saying that you believe that having got Q1 AND Q2 wrong they are just edging there bets and upping the full year forecast to 2b in the small print to make it look like they are right overall.