The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Just watched the interview now and my assessment is very positive. I tried to look for negatives reading the posts yesterday.
It seemed to me he did not divulge about the listings etc because he did not want to give away too much and not because he does not know what the next plan is. Initially he did talk about AIM also being a deterrent to II's getting onboard and later about JSE so dual-listing this looks the obvious plan for II investment. I expect traction in this within 6 months as the last interviews suggested end of the year or 2021 Q1.
Good to hear he does not want to raise money for the sake of just getting II's onboard also and that the expansion will be through cash generation at the plants. I can understand why he cannot say anything about raises with hundred percent certainty as he might want to buy Largo (which he did not deny) or they need so much vanadium that Mokopane needs to be developed immediately ;).
I won't get carried away with the freudian slip regarding Eskom wanting 1400MWh's of VRFB's but it is telling that he said electrolyte plant construction is going ahead as planned. BMN would not be investing in an electrolyte plant if there was no market for VRFB's and wasting cash during times of conservation at the company.
Bassguy I have been invested over 2 years also and like you underwater in my portfolio but with another share also. I am back to work and found it's better for the mind to keep busy and restrict the amount of time on BB's as there is a lot of negativity.
I know the SP isn't going to change significantly today or tomorrow but in weeks, months and maybe a year so I've just accepted there is no point worrying day to day and carry on with what's important in life. I'm very positive for the future but shame my wife isn't happy there isn't as much investment in the house.
It would also help if they were clear as to whether a new listing will involve a capital raise or not? He said expansion out of profits but did mention not wanting to raise for no reason so....
FM became unusually animated when pressed in AIM. He's rightly had enough of it not seeing what he sees in contrast to what we see as LTHs. It was clear he has a plan to exit but couldn't divulge. JSE will definitely happen but was at pains to thank PIs and doesn't want to disadvantage us by raising without purpose just to get IIs on board. So my conclusion is that he will dual list on the main market too.
Love the way he is so driven on reducing costs. He knows that if you are still making money at the bottom of the V cycle, and as higher cost producers withdraw from the market, you are there to benefit handsomely as the supply deficit becomes obvious in the next price spike. Of course next time that happens, BMN will multiply the effect, compared to 2018, by their continuously increasing production.
bassguy, keep the faith mate, frantically treading water like you - our day is around the corner !!
SSA
Thanks all.
A big thing to say on a public BB @bassguy..
All the best to ya
Hi Bassguy, we all struggle some times.
I know of a great life coach who can help with mental health issues. She is based in north east but covers the whole country on zoom and phone call sessions. Search for Jude Daunt coaching. Good luck
Good luck to all bushwhackers out there, stay strong and stay safe
So not focusing in on our move to the main market or BE I just made a few key points Fortune made at the beginning of the interview.
1. Bushveld are not only on track to be the biggest primary producer in the world but one that has a very low cost production base.
2. Due to increasing demand the outlook for vanadium prices is more upside than downside.
3. 4000 -4300 tonnes production of vanadium this year at vametco and vanchem, thats a staggering 35-40% increase in production on last year!!
4. for all the expansion plan to over 8400 tonnes over next 4-5 years approximately $100 mil will be need this will be funded by cash from the mines and stage financing , so no need for dilution for shareholders.
5. Fortune see's his plan as very prudent and conservative and said that the company is not under pressure to go to the markets.
6. Vametco expansion to 4200 mtv will take 3-5 years and cost $25 mil.
7. Vanchem expansion to 4200 mtv will cost $45 mil and be done in 3 key stages
Phase 1 1st kiln End of 2020 = 1100 mtv
Phase 2 2nd kiln 2020 -2022 = 2000 mtv
phase 3 3rd kiln 2023 -2024 = 1100 mtv
( note Vanchem currently supplied from Mapochs stockpile but will in the future revert to Vametco whilst Mokopane mine is put into operation at cost of $25 mil).
So 7 key points that I personally view as absolutely excellent!
Also from point 7 you can easily work out that within 18 months we will be producing approx 6000 mtv.
When Matt asked about further expansion Fortune said lets not jump the gun and his main focus first getting to above 8400 mtv. What is interesting though is the breakdown of the the capacity of the kilns as I remember Orphdian commenting in the past that Vanchem kiln 2 was about as big as Vametco Kiln so in theory future output from this kiln alone could rival that of total vametco bringing in another 2200 mtv making the total mtv for Bushveld per annum of 10600mtv!!
Bassguy, I'm sorry to hear your struggling with some mental health issues, most of us at some point in our lives will have been affected so you are not alone in that respect. Don't stop posting just because the questions you seek answers to are negative, better out than in. Everyone knows you are a well respected poster on this board.
The slip about eskom wanting vrfbs Enrico?
If I am coming across as overly negative I apologise to all. I will not apologise for attempting to challenge the situation and dissect what is said to gain a better understanding. I will admit I struggle with "faith" particularly when so underwater and not knowing much about key parts of the business.
Will keep quieter for a bit, I am currently struggling badly with elements of mental health which is probably a factor in my view but I personally am not sure what the point of the crux interview was with so little new said, best wait for something to talk about?
Anyway Gla
Bg
had something -> has something
on his sleeve -> in his sleeve
The phone is overly eager to correct my writing.
I reckon FM had something up his sleeve but can't divulge it yet. The reason why he's frustrated is probably that he's been stuck with that thing on his sleeve for several months now: he was probably expecting it to be done and announced early this year but it keeps slipping but he can't talk about the delay without revealing what it's all about, so he's stuck and very frustrated.
Investor81. I don't think people are being overly negative on this.
The co have a clear path to 8400 production and an electrolyte plant and that is fantastic, there's nothing wrong or unusual about PI's dissecting an interview.
When asked about buying largo he didn't say no. So shall we all interpret that as bmn are buying largo? :-)
He said he will look after long term shareholders and won't raise for the sake of raising. Lots of positives to take but like always everyone loves to try and put a negative spin on it without focusing on any positives.
Having just watched the video I’m amazed at how some people see negatives in such a straight laced leader, the LTH amongst us can see What future the company has within the next 4/5 years.
Being a business holder of a number of uk ltd companies I would snap FM hands off to be apart of my dream, some people really need to wake up and smell the coffee. MM