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Do not feed the animals
Thank you all.
Some of the best answers i’ve seen on any board. Think this needs to be discussed more often for potential new investors who come across these discussions.
Yeoman "I.e. no local favouritism" - actually it is entirely the opposite as this article ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-eskom-battery-mandate-2018-339 ) explains :-
What FM is actually saying is that because Eskom is an SOE, it must follow the SA Department of Industry requirements under SATS 1286:2011. He has known that for a very long time. That is the reason BMN tweeted that they have “been working towards being ready for this since launching Bushveld Energy in 2014.”
This SA dti document deals with local content (page 1)
“the local content of a product is the tender price less the value of imported content, expressed as a percentage. It is, therefore, necessary to first compute the imported value of a product to determine the local content of a product.”
This is dealt with in more detail in the Eskom ‘Supplier Development and Localisation Evaluation Criteria’ document, where it says on Page 1;
“Supplier Development and Localisation (SD&L) as an evaluation criterion will be allocated 20% of the total tender evaluation points, i.e. a maximum of 70% must be allocated for price and technical criteria (including SHEQ), and 20% allocated for SD&L, and 10% for BBBEE”
and
“Participating Suppliers must score a minimum of 60% against the stated targets for SD&L in order to qualify for further tender evaluation.”
https://www.esmap.org/esp_second_consultation_pretoria
Yeoman see the presentations from BMN, Tesla and Blue solutions for energy storage to the World Bank earlier this year in Pretoria. This suggests to me BMN are sitting on the top table when it comes to their bidding with the WB projects.
The ESMAP is to help Africa in the ways Faramog has suggested and the company making plenty of money will help the debts of the SA government through taxes and royalties.
Add to that BMN in their presentation have suggested upto 80% local content once batteries are assembled there and exceptional safety and recyclability for VRFB's compared to Lithium batteries.
The government investing-arm IDC, is investing with BMN to build an Electrolyte plant. You wouldn't think the government are throwing a few million dollars if there isn't a plan to roll out VRFB's across SA.
One of the SA selection criteria is about 'Local Content' which the World Bank support. The WB is making this money available as no one wants SA to fail economically as that would be catastrophic for much of Africa. Eskom is clearly the biggest single economic risk as it has been so badly run over 27 years by the ANC. If Eskom can be turned around, a new sunrise market in renewable's generated and developed then the WB achieves all its goals: stabilise SA, increase employment, develop electrical infrastructure (enabling wider education: a key way of reducing poverty) and reducing outside dependence.
It has seemed perfectly obvious over the past 18 months that BE has been lined and positioned to be a strong part of this rollout. After all, an outside SA company coming in and then leaving does nothing for the SA economy, unemployment or wider social development.
I find it inconceivable that BE will not be a strong part of the Eskom systems bid for - there is a lot more at stake than just storage into Eskom, not least keeping Ramaphosa in office and the mad marxist elements at bay. That can only be done if real delivery of infrastructure and jobs accurs
Disclaimer - I’m a LTH and very optimistic about this share and I am very surprised at how long the sp is.
But one thing I see all over this board and others is that everyone seems to think we have an abnormally high chance of playing a role in the upcoming Eskom tender. However, from my reading it has to go to a world bank approved international tender process I.e. no local favouritism. Not that I believe Eskom would necessarily do something like that but there is the trial BE battery in operation that might have been a good sign.
Basically - what am I missing that makes everyone so optimistic about winning this tender?