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All good observations, thanks Alfa. To check if I understand your points, if we take the 16 odd weeks from Nov 18-Feb 19 (32M excess buys at 400k per day) plus the 36 weeks since at 1M per week, there could be +/- 5 more weeks of selling, at a rate of 1M per week, until we hit approx 75M (50%) of the placing?
Fairwinds - a fair assessment but I would make two points. You are describing a worst case scenario where ALL of the march 2018 152M are being sold down - the reality is almost definitely less than this and given the fact that there are even cornerstone investors explicitly listed I estimate that the real size of the current TS overhang might have only been half of that 152M figure.
Going on from this there was clear evidence from Nov 2018 to the start of Feb 2019 of an excess of Buys of around 400K per day. Note this is the excess of Buys and says nothing about what is the number of Sells that might be attributable to the TS(s). I think that 4M per week is really an overestimate given that the average volume in 2019 is about 4M per day - I would reckon that on average perhaps 1M per week might have been disposed from the TS pot - this might therefore would take 76 weeks to burn through. Or it could be less.
cont...
I can only determine that there are still plenty of shares left from the March 2018 group, and we are more likely to need more than 52 weeks (approx 3M additional buys per week needed) before the MM involved is unble to consistently drop large volumes in. At that point, we may start to see the price rise as MMs move to a long position on BMN.
I’m also of the belief that the V price has very little to do with our current price, anyone who spends a mere 3-4hours researching the recent material on BMN will reach that conclusion. Which leads me back to the question of how much longer will we need to wait? This feels a bit like a long car journey as a kid, asking, "are we there yet?", with the constant answer being, only a few more weeks! would be interested to get others views on this, it may well be quite off the mark, and won’t change anything, but might help some other holders, who like me are learning that Aim is anything but straightforward, or transparent!
The interview posted this weekend was great, and as many have said there were a few knowing looks, smiles that know ing the way FM and Mn operate means there is plenty more going on in the background that can’t be talked about yet :)
The way this business sign posts and delivers on commitments suggests a very clear 3-5 year strategy is in place, and that it is being constantly tested and reviewed, which is excellent governance and a sign to me that there are strong corporate structures in place. They mention in the video that they test their assumptions regularly, but there is a lot more to it than that comment alludes to.
While BMN has been focused, rightly, on delivering on the plans I’ve spent a small amount of time trying to get a better understanding of how much longer the seemingly endless supply of shares can suppressing the price for.
The March 2018 RNS ( https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BMN/bushveld-minerals-ld-us222-million-equity-placing-q9wlqc1jgirvbel.html ) identifies
"BMN has raised approximately US$22.2 million (£15.7 million) (before expenses) by way of an oversubscribed placing of 152,749,172 new ordinary shares of 1 penny each (the "Placing Shares") at a price of 10.3 pence per share with leading institutional and mining investors…"
"The Placing Shares will represent approximately 14.4% of the Company's issued share capital on Admission (as defined below).”
"The Placing was led by a consortium of cornerstone investors, including the original founders of Mimosa Platinum and LionOre Mining International ("LionOre"), as well as the key investors in Mantra Resources at its inception. In 2007, LionOre was bought by Norilsk Nickel for US$6.3 billion. Mantra Resources was sold to Rosatom of Russia in 2010 for US$1.6 billion."
There is very little available online about the entities and people behind them, the only name I could find was Mr Gil Playford, who appears to be a very astute operator.
It seems the same consortium (almost identical wording to the BMN RNS) have invested in ’Salt Lake Potash’ in Jume 2019 https://stockhead.com.au/resources/lionore-founders-among-the-canny-investors-climbing-aboard-at-salt-lake-potash/
These ‘cornerstone’ investors hold / held approx 152M shares between them, so if all were in agreement and were to hand their shares to a MM, then surely notifications will follow once the supply has been exhausted.
If we assume that all 158M share are being sold down, and the selling started in Jan 2019, that is approx 40 weeks YTD. On average that needs an excess of 4M shares bought each and every week, over and above the ‘usual’ market dynamics. I don’t follow the trading activity very closely to have a handle on if we are anywhere near the vicinity of that excess of buys, but based on the flat response the the transformational news over the last 5 months (profit, acquisitions, new business models) I can only determine that there are still plenty of shares left from the