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Eyes down (again) peeps.
Why do so many people seem sure BTC is heading lower?
It's still linked with wider markets whether you agree or not so the market psychology still applies regardless of the back story. This is one of, if not THE most volatile and risky asset class and therefore the first to dump. I'm in the 'dotcom' comparison camp at the moment and only follow ARB for what I think is a miner or blockchain company with great potential in coming years.
"I should have said at $10k"
Or maybe $15k as I'm not aware of any miner who would still be making profits if BTC were to be this low - although some would be close, including argo.
As you say though, highly unlikely to fall this low anyway. Bigger question for argo is their growth plans and how they will be funded. Unless BTC makes a big move it's hard to see the sp moving very much until they either reveal more about what these plans are or when they start delivering on the plans they already have (e.g. getting the benefits from immersion and other progress on mining in Texas beyond just the building).
Why do so many people seem sure BTC is heading lower? The fundamentals only grow stronger and net flow is off exchanges. Miners are NOT selling. Do people still not understand how BTC works? We hit $20k back in 2017 with just Retail and pure speculation. A whole digitised ecosystem is being built right in front of our faces and BTC underwrites it all. If there is another black swan (and I do not class Governments ongoing destruction of SME's through POLICY, burdening the plebs and future generations with insurmountable debt in that bracket) BTC was the first to bounce and it bounced hard. It also looks like the wheels are falling off this *situation* as almost in perfect unison governments globally are downgrading this *thing* to endemic and / or removing all restrictions. The 'health passport' (i.e. papers) seems to be no longer in vogue either so I only assume these scum bags are front running some sort of news or big announcement because this speed of this recent U-turn is nothing short of extraordinary. Looks like panic to me.
I should have said at $10k rather than under and perhaps break even as the profit at that level would be minimal. I can't see BTC hitting $10k either but can see it low 20's high teens especially if we get another black swan event (perhaps the financial fallout from fiscal measures taken during Covid). We'll see. I'm completely on the sidelines atm waiting for a clearer (perhaps not cheaper) entry point here. I got kicked on this board recently when I suggested 36p as a base but the maths is there if you look. One last thing for me is that ARB I think played a blinder in 2021 with where the prices they managed to raise cash. Hopefully the 3.8Eh will materialise this year perhaps with additional debt rather than a low priced placement but even if it doesn't the foundations are there.
OP - I think that being realistic with this share is important.
- some of us have been for what seems like a very long time now.
There's plenty to be positive about but until DeFi etc. evolve further and uptake is more, then ARB is highly dependant to BTC.
This is 90+% retail owned. The institutions who have bought in are now likely to be all underwater. Saylor holding BTC for me is a red flag, just Google Michael Saylor dot com bubble. - why would Saylor holding matter? it is not about who holds, its about BTC.
If we do get a short lived pump in BTC to say $50k then this will be an opportunity to get out of here as BTC looks to be heading south in the coming months. I do think though that based upon recent share price action from the $69k high this opportunity has passed. - i take it you are saying is if BTC pumps argo will not follow?
ARB should be OK though as they're trading and developing strategies as part of their diversification and even with BTC below $10k they're profitable - if btc hits $10k what would their profit be? very little if any, and i agree with hexam post. As they dont return value to shareholders the the real question is what would the share price be. i think you are trying to say argo would survive a crypto winter - they might, but the share price wont.
I do think they'll ride the coming storm and come out well positioned. Although they have appeared disorganised over the last 18 months they have learned by their mistakes and are becoming stronger. - heres hoping, but wont hold my breath.
I simply do not see BTC falling to 10k anymore. Such a drastic fall now would wipe out most of the crypto market with it. There is too much noise and involvement. It's no longer 2018 and retail investors would gobble up bitcoin way before it fell to such a price
"even with BTC below $10k they're profitable"
Agree with a lot of what you say but argo is not profitable with BTC below $10k. No miner is.
I think that being realistic with this share is important. There's plenty to be positive about but until DeFi etc. evolve further and uptake is more, then ARB is highly dependant to BTC. This is 90+% retail owned. The institutions who have bought in are now likely to be all underwater. Saylor holding BTC for me is a red flag, just Google Michael Saylor dot com bubble. If we do get a short lived pump in BTC to say $50k then this will be an opportunity to get out of here as BTC looks to be heading south in the coming months. I do think though that based upon recent share price action from the $69k high this opportunity has passed. ARB should be OK though as they're trading and developing strategies as part of their diversification and even with BTC below $10k they're profitable. I do think they'll ride the coming storm and come out well positioned. Although they have appeared disorganised over the last 18 months they have learned by their mistakes and are becoming stronger.
Michael Saylor holding BTC.
Institutions holding Argo Blockchain
Major holdersCurrency in USD
Breakdown
0.01% % of shares held by all insiders
5.42% % of shares held by institutions
5.42% % of float held by institutions
24 Number of institutions holding shares
Major holdersCurrency in GBp
Breakdown
3.03% % of shares held by all insiders
9.85% % of shares held by institutions
10.16% % of float held by institutions
40 Number of institutions holding shares
On the plus side, so long as Michael Saylor holding, we are good. Did you see that Tonga was planning to introduce BTC this year!
K3v
Ah ok thanks,
Thought you might do after your prediction of 150-170 before funding the other day
After my last 12 month prediction, I gave up on predictions too.
I'm busy looking for some figures to base my own calculations for pluto on. I cant find a flipping thing on their financials
flowerpot999, I don’t do predictions. If I could do predictions, I would have sold at £3+ and been waiting for 80p to come back round.
I am prepared to predict a price greater than 84p, otherwise I wouldn’t be holding as many.
Do you have a prediction?
K3V
"My calculation is that Pluto will be worth an additional 20pps to Argo. No, I’m not posting them.
Yet."
No need to post any calculations, but can you pls state what you expect the Argo Sp will already be at for Pluto to add 20p to the share price
Surely if it was at 80p your calculations arnt seeing 25% gain in Sp?
Jamins
I’m always happy to engage in adult conversation.
“ Kevin, I appreciate you wait for first week of the month so you can gargle PW’s balls so you are somewhat blinkered.”
I am reasonably broad-minded, but I have no idea what kind of physical practice this involves. I won’t ask you for details. Do you think this is the first week of the month, or are you referring to some future act? I have no idea.
“However you need to take a step back and look at the consistent second rate execution by Argo of what is generally good strategy they develop.”
Ok. Why not?
“It is a sloppy logo which is a rip off of Airbnb. If you can’t see that.. oh dear…”
It’s a logo. Nothing more. There is no interest or activity in B&B. Perhaps you should refrain from puerile homophobic slurs and do some research?
I don’t think I can help you any more than that.
Happy trolling!
:-))
Poorinvester Is BTC still "heading north"?
I waited until today to buy in here, I see this as a 3 month wait for a healthy return.
I think you're confusing a 'home' icon for a logo.
Besides, it looks nothing like the Airbnb logo, really, look at them side by side. Besides, who gives a **** about the logo if the business delivers.
Great initiative from Argo and very professional video.
Good to see Labs are hiring an analyst and have involvement in some good projects already- see here:
https://argoblockchain.com/argo-labs/
Kevin, I appreciate you wait for first week of the month so you can gargle PW’s balls so you are somewhat blinkered. However you need to take a step back and look at the consistent second rate execution by Argo of what is generally good strategy they develop.
It is a sloppy logo which is a rip off of Airbnb. If you can’t see that.. oh dear….
Caddor38
“ K3, believe me I am impatient, yet forced in to patience right now, based on my situation. However it sounds like you may know things I dont so I will chill. Im definitely not turning in to a chuz ir chaebol.”
My calculation is that Pluto will be worth an additional 20pps to Argo. No, I’m not posting them.
Yet.
Jamins
“ The argo labs logo has a strong resemblance to the Airbnb logo…..Is Peter diversifying and doing a bit of B&B on the side to buy a few more miners?”
No. It is just a similar logo. I hope that helps.
Completely agree with K3, we all need to have patience and all will be revealed. No point speculating or wishing for the worst. I have complete confidence in ARB. Big things are on the horizon. imho
Lol trotter. Del boy investing in Blockchain. Obviously mean Twitter
Just seen on trotter that uniX Gaming play to earn has both Pluto and Argo down as sponsors. So hopefully Argo Labs have learnt from Pluto and will benefit from the relationship and follow them into the better investments. Btw I have no idea about uniX play to earn and whether it's profitable or not but it does have 47k followers
The argo labs logo has a strong resemblance to the Airbnb logo…..Is Peter diversifying and doing a bit of B&B on the side to buy a few more miners?
K3, believe me I am impatient, yet forced in to patience right now, based on my situation. However it sounds like you may know things I dont so I will chill. Im definitely not turning in to a chuz ir chaebol.