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Well except $93m + $19m = $112m outlay was never outlayed, only $19m was ever moved in cash.
The $93m is just sitting on our new balance sheet as a big fat credit (which everyone seems to forget about) awaiting OXY works to offset against.
CD: "To OXY, what's another $500m to bag the lot?"
Hit the nail on the head there IMHO... far and away the most likely "speculative" outcome. Certainly the reason I am invested here and have also added in recent weeks.
First week in September IMHO for the news we are all patiently waiting for.
GLA :-)
All getting a bit tense here isn’t it.
The view of the BoD depends entirely on your perspective of their objectives. If they were setting out to grow a production company they have been a bit pathetic. If on the other hand they were setting their stall out to build a company to be sold for the value of its assets they have played a blinder, building a strong land bank and adding strategic value to it without incurring debt.
Either way - I suspect the lack of news is because the game is all but over for Amerisur. The data room will be getting real time updates on every aspect of the company at a level not material to the market as a whole, but will include everything from seismics to E&P cost models for each of the assets.
I’ll be amazed if this process doesn’t end in a serious recommended bid, there is just too big a disparity between the potential strategic value and the AIM share price. The best only outstanding question is when, I personally think news will likely emerge in the next two weeks ahead of the due date for the interim results.
Colonel - you certainly packed the insults in there .
First, I've been around for a long time and have been very patient, wrt the needy bit, I'll be here until this is resolved and will not sell cheap even in the face of no news. My comments reflected genuine concern and you criticise and then agree "In the meantime, yes it is odd that we have had zero updates on CPO-5. That's a bit poor" Then go on the provides excuses for the BoD again. I suspect you simply want to discuss positives and ignore the elephant in the room - everyone sees it - why is CPO-5 progress so poor.
Do you not realise you legitimise my point with your own half-hearted swipe, the BoD need to be strong and wary that they may need to resort to shareholder support down the line to get the best outcome.
and You're damned right I'm frustrated, but needy! no mate. In case you hadn't noticed it's institutions that appear to be selling and I suspect PI's are net buyers now, - are IIs needy or perhaps feel they have not been givern enough reason to hold onto their shares? It's as simple as this if they don't keep shareholders properly informed, some assume/fear poor performance or a problem and sell or lose confidence in the BoD.
We are all thrashing around trying to second-guess what the parties are up to arent we. As El Colonel sagely noted folks should sit back and enjoy the ride. That said I have a few observations:
CPO-5 may appear our most valuable bargaining chip but as others have noted a 30pc non working stake will not have much heft with the Indians. Why would they be in a hurry to prove up the find to boost our NAV on GC’s timetable. Perversely though, that may be advantageous as potential buyers are going to have to take a flyer on what that stake is worth ( and I mean over the next 10 years ir so if it a biggie). Do ONGC care about a different face on the 30pc stake? Only if it helps them, otherwise I dont see them losing too much sleep.
2. As I’ve noted before the pipeline has real strategic value as the cost in time and money and politics for s/o contemplating doing it again from scratch makes buying Amer very attractive
3. These types of strategic plays come along rarely & the value the market ascribes is often way off the strategic value ascribed by the industry players ( seen this time and time again e.g -Glencore/ Xstrata; Shell/British Gas BP/Burmah
Treasures - I don't think there is a snowball in hells chance of ONGC selling out to us or us even being able to afford it.
However, I had contemplated the possibility of them selling down their share by 20% and ceding operatorship (really needed).
The trouble is we have nothing to offer ONGC is term of proven competence to run the show, as my last post suggested we have been poor operationally, especially when compared with Geo Park who are a preferred partner and exceptionally skilled in the area.
Consequently, I would not be surprised to see a reshuffling of assets with Geo Park buying CPO-5 from us and part of ONGC's share to become operator. In return ONGC could receive a share in Geo Parks blocks . It makes a lot of sense for all the operators, even Ecopetrol could play a part in consolidation of the blocks - a win win for everyone making a formidable land bank.
Well said Colonel. Your posts are always sound and informative. Cheers, YM
JTD
This is a wild one. If OXY want the initial 4 blocks that Amer farmed out but we keep plat and OBA for the cash flow. Get drilling on PUT 8 when we can. Then with the money we get from the sales make an offer to ONGC for an extra slice of CPO-5 and become operator. And then the fact Indy 2 not drilled keeps the price down. The Indian government then get the cash out that they want.....wild but do you think at all poss. Cheers and always great summary/thought posts from yourself.
Assuming normal reporting is still in place and it should be - the lack of progress is extremely worrying for me.
I believe it is important that Amerisur projects an image that it is quite capable of telling all bidders their offer is not good enough and we can survive on our own (they need to keep shareholders supportive). The tactical strength of Amerisur and our BoD in particular is weakened in any negotiation if our team looks incapable of running the company successfully (optimising opportunities).
Sadly, they have always been consistently weak operationally if not strategically, despite shareholders rallying to JW's defence in the face of any criticism he has failed to deliver planned progress year after year - None of us know what is currently going on, drillimg waiting, flooded out, who knows. To the best of our knowledge they had simply to move the rig to an established site along an established route and reinstall - what's the problem???
IMO it is important to reassure shareholders at this importantly time, especially as the BoD have asked shareholders to hold firm. If Indico2 is not to be spudded imminently then they should demand a meeting with ONGC to ascertain intent and then publish their understanding. Embarrass ONGC if necessary, IMO we are past the stage of niceties, if ONGC are deliberately dragging their heels as they seem to be every potential bidder will recognise it in any case, they're not stupid, it's about our BoD defending our interests robustly. WE may be the junior investor but we still have legal right as VOG found out wrt to their junior investor on many occasions.