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Great game of tennis guys but my money is on Tiburn. Time will tell. ATB .
Thanks for the write up Tiburn a really appreciate it. Top man
Pjohn
I don't know chap - but i did a benchmark post on another RTO I3 Energy, based on this November may not be unreasonable to assume for AAOG:
I3 Energy Targeted a RTO back in March of Toscana Energy:
" i3 has entered into an Option agreement to acquire all issued and outstanding common shares of Toscana Energy Income Corporation ("Toscana" or "TEIC"), a TSX listed company"
They published an admission document last week, pending AGM approval the takeover will then complete.
"The Company is pleased to announce that it has posted an Admission Document containing a Notice of General Meeting (the "Admission Document") to its shareholders in relation to the reverse takeover of Toscana Energy Income Corporation (the "Toscana Acquisition")."
So from Due diligence process to nearing completion was over 6 months.
Forum do not own AAOG, do not have to say anything to Cope on what they are doing, do not have to inform the market, may be substantially advanced in their RTO approach and only inform once they are close to completing a deal - there is no substantive benefit in them doing otherwise.
Assuming they started planning end January, we are now over 9 months into the process.
Team joined in March 19th just six weeks later - RTO work by them since could be the case.
Its probable that they spent time until May at least in asset evaluation and preferred option selected, agreeing the terms of the deal. It may be that some of the incumbent directors in the target company are retained.
Forum probably understood their costs to complete the deal by around end May, and so agreed the Riverfort facility on June 10th for drawdown of £160k then and smaller amounts each month since.
6 months due diligence, legals and admission document generation is reasonable and matches with I3E experience, although this was also complicated by listing on TSX and C19 so could have been longer than normal.
Assuming this benchmark is representative and work has occurred in the background since end March, a November RTO may be possible here.
Great Posts tiburn. Do you think we'll hear something by 4th November or will they look to drop asset once we're not trading?
Tiburn - you've got my vote ATB
No - not saying they are flouting the rules, just that they are legacy aswell and havnt sold so must see some value to remain. Otherwise they could have drip sold shares over ten months if they wanted to sell.
lets leave it there shall we. See you on the other side im sure.
Who would Miton and Sister sell to anyway as you rightly said it’s a car crash
That’s not what I meant, although you are right but they also have bigger pockets and no doubt are privy to info that you and I are not (in Forums case anyway) the others don’t have board reps so they should only know the same as what we know. Anything else would be illegal, are you saying they are flouting they rules? What I did mean is that you might gain some knowledge ie that an issue of equity is not the same as a drawdown of cash from a CLN.
I doubt it and here is why.
If the general negative "all is doom for legacy shareholders message" your selling had any real merit then Miton and Sister - the biggest shareholders other than Forum - would have sold by now since Jan and exited completely- they know a lot more than you or I on market positioning and best ROI approach - some they win, some they lose - but they have been content to remain here and have not sold one share since Forum joined.
You might gain some knowledge from it.
Well for someone that doesn't care either way what we do with our shares, you spend an inordinate amount of precious time on here trying to put us all right.
have a good day
In answer to you last sentence ‘I don’t’
do you really want to uselessly debate each point and spend another day doing so?
They had RF in as they needed the finance until the RTO was in place. I actually think its a good sign as RF needed to see evidence of ability to pay back in a year - otherwise this is a shell with no asset or means to pay them - we have been over this ground.
Forum run this, PXP are distanced and just fund them as their holding company, PXP are not exposed beyond what funds/asset they fold in to kick start this - you don't get something from nothing.
We don't know what % of the company RF will own, but they wont want to have majority ownership and control - thats not their bag - but they will want to see they can get value for sale of these shares in time and from warrants. which means the value of the company is assumed by them to increase.
remember the facility is £100k per month by mutual agreement , not £1.5m straight up, its in Forum control to cap the amount drawn down to avoid any issue for them on RF control even if that was an issue. They probably wont draw down on all of it, but who knows? if money can be made by both then so be it.
To leverage the £30m loss they would need to own the company I agree, its the entire point of them being here and their intent - they have ability to place 3 directors as per the agreement, 2 are here, 1 to come which gives board majority in a listed company and ability to raise funds from the market once its established after RTO.
where that leaves shareholders? we don't know yet but currently the choice is:
sell and realize 90% loss - each to their own, but for me no thanks
remain and see what occurs - LTH choice - knowing we are not out of the woods yet but accepting it COULD return more than sale of shares now
the majority of the damage has already been done by DS - why do you care what we do with our shares?
I’ll also add for them to use the £30m loss theyd need to own the company outright, tell me what that leaves you?
So if Forum/PXP are taking this over why did the people they have put in charge then allow RF to have a £1.6m CLN facility plus warrants which could possibly more than double the sii when they are a £2b company. If they are here to use your £30m loss they wouldn’t of allowed that as RF could potentially own more of the company than them! They can’t all use the £30m each.
It is bizarre Amtech and you know it, by any mores.
need the last word don't you? well im not going to give you that satisfaction.
so your motive to post here:
1 - A severe case of schadenfreude
2 - Your have a huge ego and need to bolster it by being seen to be right and trying to prove others wrong
3 - Your shorting this -(hours spent posting on a share you don't own is a waste of your time - what benefit? - see 1 and 2)
4 - A combination of the above
5 - Perfectly reasonable behavior
You claim 5 - but we all know that's not the case, so convince yourself and no other.
and again ignore the points i made that disprove yours.
- Im not posting theory as facts, never have, I lay out data and reach conclusions from it - others can believe that or not
- You don't know how many holders remain, its not based on who posts here. Yes this was a disaster, some trusted DS and JB to the last and were wrong - but we don't need someone like you to point that out - its utterly gratuitous behavior.
- you just make stuff up and portray it as facts - if PXP wanted a shell they could have listed one with less hassle? yes they could be but it would not have £30m of tax loss to leverage and would have been a lot more hassle than just buying a block of shares, placing two of their staff to date which is the only "hassle" you describe.
- The leverage the tax loss by taking over control of the company, making a profit in the future and then offset future profits against this tax loss = more profits - its why shells are so attractive - and the entire point of their involvement - or why do you think they are here?
- you bang the dilution drum like a 2 year old - so what if more shares in issue ? if SP rises the shares can be sold at that higher price, even if there are more of them in issue. The current mc at £1m is irrelevant, what is relevant is this company goes on to business success.
Nothing bizarre about sitting with a bottle of red and going through a few stocks on a Sunday night Tiburn. The only hope I see is no hope for lth’s hence why there’s only 3 or 4 of you left of the DS and Rambo fan club the others cleared off when this dog started barking. I care when people like you post on bb’s with your misleading info and theory’s dressed as facts to give yourself the hope you are looking for.
So your positives.
-if PXP are in the background and just wanted a shell they could of listed one with a lot less hassle than what they are doing now and probably cheaper. They’ve got 25% of Aaog for how much? £420k was it, the Mcap is only £1m.
-how can they leverage a £30m tax loss from Aaog
-shells have a value but not to the level you seem to think.
-if they did ‘drop in’ anything of scale that would work against legacy shareholders as the more valuable the asset the more dilution it will create.
before you go? just go!
your a real strange one - posting your total negative mantra, even at 11pm on a Sunday night in a share your not invested in is bizarre behavior
who said this was a great position ? of course not, its a car crash - but there is cause for some hope, which your trying to squash - as you have an agenda.
what choice have LTH got?
sell and realize a 90% loss for many or hold out for some value
and what do you care either way? what on earth is your motive?
All legacy holders are trying to do here is see some way through to potential value , via a Forum RTO.
You paint the utterly worst case scenario - but none of us know what will happen.
The positives are:
- Major £2b cap backer involved - its superb to have PXP in the background, however you try and ignore this or downplay it
- they are not in this to specifically screw legacy shareholders as you maintain but to realise the tax loss £30m and leverage that in the most efficient way possible by using this listed shell to fold in a RTO asset - then make money and scale this as rapidly as possible - its business, not AIM lifestyle companies that your obviously used to investing in.
- Shells are valuable as avoid IPO cost/time - and time is money to major caps, they wont spin this out over years as you maintain to screw shareholders over (AIM lifestyle experience again) , they will get on with it once they are ready as they are NOT a typical AIM minnow taking over another AIM minnow.
- You do not know the scale of asset they will fold in, which could be large -nor the performance targets for growth - nor the potential market cap this may generate - nor the SP this gains - nor how quickly they wish to leverage the tax loss -all key points that refute your negative AIM RTO penny pinching mantra you post - as you obviously have an agenda
You state that we will get diluted to nothing - I say your wrong - neither if us will know until this plays out to the end.
But before I go what positives? The company is two weeks away from suspension. If billions of shares are dropped in it could also do well, what kind of positive is that. Lotto positive that’s what. This is how I think it could pan out Tiburn. Suspension then Cope and Beck could go as Forum are running this for now. They’ve already done a deal with RF and they could do so again on the current CLN’s, a third party connected to Forum could “drop in an asset” and resolution 7 could come into play, you all know the one, it’s where you don’t get offered anything first as shareholders because your rights have been dis-applied. The asset will come at a highly diluted cost to legacy shareholders including Forum on top of the dilution from a Forum/RF deal on the CLN’s. At this level for Aaog shareholders there’ll be very little left of what very little is already left and it’ll get rebranded. They’ll get a few more people involved by raising money while in suspension, yes they are allowed as shareholders voted to allow them to do so. Come out of suspension and then in time they’ll then raise more money to get the asset up and running over god knows how many years with much more dilution. Giving legacy shareholders like yourself very little chance of getting anything back of your now very little original investment, your only hope is to invest in the potential new company/asset/venture to recoup your loses from the old one. So what are the positives again?
One piece of your jigsaw to hammer in will come within two weeks, that’s a positive as it’s not long to wait. I’ll see you around then, laters.
oh the irony!
yes i do think that you avoid answering any points that refute yours - you just did it again!!
As to the cheap shot - you are the one banging away to make the jigsaw pieces fit your negative view of matters - ignoring any positives and assuming no positives at all - its a clean shell, with a £2billion market cap backer.
I totally acknowledge there would be a good outcome for Forum here - of course - its the entire point of their involvement and they are in it for themselves obviously - but as i said and you ignored (again) - billions of shares could be dropped in and yet still this could do well.
I would rather have Forum and whatever deal unfolds, than nothing and delist, which could have easily occurred, or Congo asset retained with the alternate Jub deal offered - then the Licence awarded to another, SNPC never pay back the $5.3m drill cost share - as could still be the case with Zenith - instead Zenith took all our debts and paid AAOG £200k for the privilege.
‘You avoid answering any point made that refutes yours!’
Are you serious?
I’m not here to wind anybody up but you keep convincing yourself that these people are here for your benefit. They have no interest in you or your finances, no interest in legacy shareholders full stop. You seem to think they’ll drop an asset in here for free or very little dilution for current holders when basically they have nothing to do with the Aaog of old. A company that you posted on in exactly the same way that you do now, just hammer in those jigsaw pieces and they’ll fit. I’ll return on the next news.
You avoid answering any point made that refutes yours!
It will be delisted May 21 unless an asset is folded in and there is enough capital gained to pay off RF
The terms of what and how an asset is folded in is not known - neither you nor I can determine either way what will occur
However, even if the dilution is 5 times or more the 500m shares in issue, value can return if the asset is big enough, increases the market cap and so SP growth - there are many successful companies with billions of shares in issue.
neither of us is going to convince the other. Im here for a reason though, your just on the wind up it seems to me.
Who said anything about delisting? What do you think the third party would want for dropping in an asset? So going back to one of my original posts a while back. They won’t drop it in for free so legacy investors can get out unscathed. Forum owning 25% of so little won’t matter to them if they like you say have a £2b backer. So to reiterate the point pi’s will be diluted to basically nothing either way you look at this. These people aren’t here to earn the likes of us money.
Interims, your right - but if you knew that, why ask?
They wont pay for an asset in max installments of £100k p/m from the facility to a third party! so they cant use it all in one block as you suggest in your option 1.
they wont buy any sort of asset for the £160k they have taken so far.
I agree RF will make money and are what they are - but for the third time - how do AAOG pay them back if delisted - as terms state payable in a year or Jun 2021, which is one month beyond effective delist date May 2021.
What funds do they use, as cant be shares issued in a delisted company. You know its far more likely that PXP fold an asset into this, how they do that, what terms none of us know, but your comments assume there is no third party backer in the background and this is all just AAOG and RF - its not.
The annual accounts have not much relevance Tiburn I’d go off the interims 31/12/19 v’s 30/6/20.
I never said it was for buying an asset I said ‘ in theory’
Where is the equity raise of £87k ? The RNS’s to date stated RF have converted not that the company raised any equity.
The company already has the CLN set up and can draw on it under mutual consent. They don’t need to tell shareholders like I’ve already stated. This means they could of drawn £100k a month since June or nothing at all barring the £160k initial payment.
Couple of options then,
1, they spend all the funds left on an asset and raise more funds in the market on the back of it to pay for advancement/admin etc and RF convert the full CLN plus associated warrants etc.
2, they spend some of the funds left on an asset and keep the rest for advancement/admin etc and RF convert the full CLN
Either way RF will convert and dilute, it’s what they do.