In this company spends more than their revenue...directors getting more wages to just issuing share, the infrastructure might be good as well too risky to regulated, any time they could face by law,half yearly report is good but the sp doesnt react...they just create the illusion..but they never ready to say their strong profit...all about my opinion might be wrong ...just I said what I feel...last November I bought this one there is no value on my money. ..thanks
23 Oct '14
Professional Hallucinators? Hmm. Let's be a bit more factual. Historically Phorm was always lacking a critical mass of users. Now it has peak daily users of > 70m (anyone took notice?) and growing. Just to compare: Facebook has around 900m users per day. Phorm's average revenue per user per month is still very low, but this is not surprising due to the ramp up phase and large initial discounts / free trials. If Facebooks can make around USD 0.7 per user per month on advertising, why should Phorm not be able to make 1/10th of this with similar conversion rates? I think Michael Bigger's estimate might not be too far off the charts (implicitly assuming around 2 to 4 cents / user / month down the road): http://biggercapital.squarespace.com/biggercapital-investment/2014/10/8/why-we-bought-about-15-million-shares-of-phorm-in-one-image.html Let's assume Phorm can only make 1/10th of FB's advertising revenues per user. Then it should - just looking at revenues and ignoring other aspects - be valued around USD 20 per user (FB's market cap is USD 200 bln with around 900m users -> USD 222 per user). Currently Phorm's valuation is around USD 1,5 per user (GBP 70m / 73,5m users x 1,6 USDGBP). So why exactly is a user to FB worth around 150 times more than to Phorm? Because FB makes more revenues per user? Yes, but it won't be 150 times more. Because FB has a different business model? Sure, but what ultimately counts are profits and advertising is the - by far - the biggest source of income for FB. Because FB has less regulatory risk? Probably, but it is hard to see why the ISPs should provide all the infrastructure and will never want to get anything of the advertising pie. With growing user base, Phorm will be a totally different story than what it used to be. To me this stock is as close to a free call option as it can possibly get. Valuation should be 10 times of what it is now. We will see who is right over the next 12 months or so... Laura Jones
14 Oct '14
Professional Hallucinators Raise Money.........always.....change the code as wfdk...
6 Oct '14
last bit of analysis
what also get more depressing is the revenue per advert served h1 2013 100m adverts served $28500 revenue 28500 / 100000000 = $0.000285 (or 0.0285 cents) per advert served h2 2013 800m adverts served $251300 revenue 251300 / 800000000 = $0.000314 (or 0.0314 cents) per advert served h1 2014 2600m adverts served $528000 revenue 528000 / 2600000000 = $0.000203 (or 0.0203 cents) per advert served q3 2014 3300m adverts served $474000 revenue 474000 / 3300000000 = $0.000144 (or 0.0144 cents) per advert served so it appears they are having to discount their rates to get campaigns so both income per user and income per advert are both in decline if you analyse the figures not exactly the results you would expect a company who are supposed to be heading for profit with a unique highly targeted advertising system with better than average conversion rates than normal? their income per user is falling, their income per advert is falling so where is this growth and positive results phorm seem to imply in their operational update? as ever it is what they do not say that is of more interest as you can see from my posts today
6 Oct '14
i can see although they have increased their user base they are completely failing at serving more than 1 advert per user every other day not exactly great, probably a single advert on the interstatial page i also notice they are only converting 4.2% of advert requests into adverts served? very poor performance another interesting view income per user per month, in the BT trial phorm claim to b able to generate $1 per customer per month h1 2013 800000 users / month revenue $28500 over 6 months $28500/6 = $4750 per month revenue $4750/800000 (monthly income / monthly users) = $0.0059 or 0.59 cents / user per month h2 2013 14100000 users / month revenue $251300 over 6 months $251300/6 = $41883 per month revenue $41883/14100000 (monthly income / monthly users) = $0.00297 or 0.297 cents / user per month h1 2014 37800000 users / month revenue $528800 over 6 months $528800/6 = $88133 per month revenue $88133/37800000 (monthly income / monthly users) = $0.0023 or 0.23 cents / user per month q3 2014 75300000 users / month revenue $474000 over 3 months $474000/6 = $15800 per month revenue $15800/73500000 (monthly income / monthly users) = $0.00.21 or 0.21 cents / user per month so income per user per month is well down on the claimed income of $1/user/month when they started with BT and the income per user per month continues to fall
6 Oct '14
update in detail
lets look at the figures in detail h1 2013 .8m daily users 100m adverts served over 6 months 100m/180 (180 days in half year) =555000 adverts served per day? and with 800,000 users per day comes to 0.69 adverts served per user per day? seems to suggest only adverts on portal h2 2013 14.1m daily users 800m adverts served over 6 months 800m / 180 = 4.4m adverts served per day with 14.1m users per day that means they served 0.32 adverts per user per day? h1 2014 37.8m users per day 2600m adverts served over 6 months 2600/180 = 14.4 million adverts server per day with 37.8m users per day that means they served 0.38 adverts per user per day served q3 2014 73.5m users per day 3300m adverts served in 3 months 3300/90 =36.7m adverts served per day with 73.5m users per day that means they server 0.49 adverts per user per day so where is the exponential growth there? they were serving more adverts per user in brazil than they are now to "china and elsewhere" not exactly sparkling performance, one advert every other day to each user?, chances are that is just the basic adverts on the opt-out page? assuming they allow users in china to opt-out? phorm are increasing their user base, but completely failing to serve adverts to users
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