Forgot to factor yeild, which is 90% ish, so still valid economics.
Why I still think MNC is great
Mathmatics of Los Calatos: 100Kt for 34 years: 220,000,000 lb / year. Using a spot price of copper $3 / lb, production cost of $1.06$/lb. So $440,000,000 a year. $1.5 / £ : £293, 000, 000 a year. over 34 years pretty much £10B. taking £1-2B startup cost split between open pit startup/ block caving(massive over estimate) £8-9B profit. So is it beyond comprehension to be bought out for £200 -£400M? (10 - 20p a share), even 30p a share is still cheap! Think it is very feasible!
Seen 6 trades indicated, only 4 showing. Price rise not justified unless hidden buy, RNS, or just normal MMs playing arround.
I would say there is a logic to selling to a local miners, as you say, not much addition to the infrastructure already there. Problem is I cannot see them offering a competitive deal.
"Metminco Expects Chilean Constitutional Tribunal Decision By Year End" - We should have had something by now on this, even a notice about a further hold up. Fingers crossed then at the next quarterly activities report up to the year end, due next week, they are going to hit us with some good news at long last re Moll. You never know, maybe some good new on los C too, one way (timeline for small startup mine) or the other (partner.) The absense of drawdown could mean that a deal has been struck! only IMO though, DYOR, GLA
re transport - Don't believe there is a rail option, unless they extend it (correct me if I am wrong) so road - "Los Catalos can be accessed via the Pan American Highway from Moquegua, and a 50 kilometre unsealed road north of the highway to the Project. The port of Ilo is located approximately 160 kilometres by road to the southwest of the project area" No sure on the condition of the 'unsealed road' though and whether it needs improvement. re water - "•Seawater will be the processing medium of choice due to limited availability of potable water." I would hope they could leverage the solutions used by the neighbouring mines use re seawater "geological setting to, three large operating copper-molybdenum mines, namely Cuajone, Toquepala and Cerro Verde" The other mines may used the rail line for water. So it may well be worth extending this to kill two birds with one stone, however I have no idea on cost. In practice to start with it may be a combo road/rail solution for both water and delivery in the short term. To be honest that's a lot of assumptions on my part, I don't profess to have a firm understanding. Although I have been to Arequipa!
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