Register
Login:
Share:
Email Facebook Twitter


London South East Natural Resources Briefing webcast: #Emmerson #Alba #Condor Gold #Gold analysis
Angus Energy in talks to buy 'transformational' gas asset in North England


Hurricane Energ Share Chat (HUR)



Share Price: 55.70Bid: 55.55Ask: 55.70Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Hurricane Energ
Spread: 0.15Spread as %: 0.27%Open: 58.00High: 58.40Low: 54.80Yesterday’s Close: 55.70


Share Discussion for Hurricane Energ




View all HUR Messages

Please login or register to post a message on Share Chat.

Posts per page:

Foresight22
Posts: 153
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Interestingly, 7 sisters have changed a lot since 1973. Based on market capitalisation, in 2017 Schlumberger entered the top 7 - having minuscule oil & gas reserves! Several National Oil Companies are also in top 7, which will lose funding as nations switch from energy to power. Most current fields decline at around 5-7% per year so remaining E&P companies will be expending to maximise remaining economic rent from their massive legacy fields. The World is spending $700 billion on Renewables vs some $300-400 billion on E&P, the later will drop post 2024 if Shell is right. We still use stone today post the Stone Age; so post coal & oil peak demand we will still use them too! Peak Coal might have been 18 months ago..
 
yuyus
Posts: 1,368
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
I’m under not misapprehension that at some point fossil fuel may become obsolete or at best used significantly less ( I’m 51 but not in my lifetime), however the 7 Sisters , KSA , and numerous other entities will not kill a cash cow , or at least reduce the herd .

We have discussed this before , Complete Oil being obsolete means WW3
Foresight22
Posts: 153
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Thought Shell said Oil Demand would peak in 2024. BP predicts much longer as they have near linear simple increase in electric cars purchases - most wisdom on actually having S shape uptake driven by changes in behaviour as demonstrated on the street of London this weekend! Probably two years off before having parity between electric vs fossil fuel cars functionality - benefits of use. At that point buying behaviour expected to sky rocket. HUR therefore not issue. Novelty attracts Capital - another good reason too.
Albi1
Posts: 622
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Biffadog

Expressing concern means I've done my homework and I'm still here. I'm not putting my head in the sand and telling other people what to do!
Biffadog
Posts: 816
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Albi1andthesameNigwit,

Relax guys.

HUR prove it up and trade sale. Stated aim of BOD. Plenty of scope for a nice return on this basis.

Suggest HUR not one for you boys judging by your level of concern.

Thanks for sharing though.

GLA.
Albi1
Posts: 622
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Nigwit

Yes read the L&G announcement, plus other pension funds in the UK and the US. I broadly share your discomfort but am hoping timing for Hurricane will win out.

All the best
NigWit
Posts: 4,486
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
I don’t know but some institutions are already closing positions very publicly. Legal and General made an announcement just last week, which you’ll find easily, and the Norwegian sovereign fund stopped investment in explorers last year so the writing is already very clearly on the wall.

If Hurricane was not so close to crunch time I would not regard it as investible at all but everyone has their own attitude to risk.

Personally, I’m very uncomfortable with the environmental situation and regard climate change as beyond doubt so I’m looking for more other ways to invest.
Albi1
Posts: 622
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Nigwit

Glad to see you back. So in response to your post - when do you see peak availability of capital?
NigWit
Posts: 4,486
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
You’re conflating peak oil demand with the availability of capital. In my view this is a serious mistake.
Albi1
Posts: 622
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
DiveCentre

Yes, I realise Nigwit's views were not well received, though I don't think it was necessarily his views but perhaps the way he expressed them which, as one of the 'over invested' myself, didn't exactly encourage an open exchange.

It is about timing really, but as ever the market will follow the money. I'm hoping Hurricane's WoS exploration sees fruit before IIs switch horses altogether.
DiveCentre
Posts: 730
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Albi1

As you say the question was posed by Nigwit who, judging by posters comments is not well received on this board, which may explain the lack of response.

The question is when will peak oil demand happen (assuming it will happen in the foreseeable future) and for HUR holders the relevant time scale is probably the next ten years. Clearly when it does happen investors will sell and the savvy investors will have sold in advance. It’s not difficult to appreciate the probability of overselling.

However the peak could be more of a plateau:

“A more realistic assessment from Shell Oil is that oil demand continues to grow over the next 20 years, a view shared by rival BP and energy consultants like Wood Mackenzie. More importantly, most believe peak oil will have a long tail and that oil demand – set to reach 100 million barrels a day this year – won’t fall off abruptly even after it peaks. Instead, it should be considered a plateau rather than a sharp peak.”

www.forbes.com/sites/daneberhart/2018/09/18/forecasts-of-peak-oil-demand-overstated/
Albi1
Posts: 622
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Biffadog,

Thanks again for your response. Yes it is the lower appetite I am looking at and note, but clearly I see the business case here and remain fully invested at the moment. Renewables won't give me the return I'm looking for in the next few years so am hoping things start to lift a bit here come October/November. None of this is a concern for many LTHs who may have derisked sufficiently anyway!
Biffadog
Posts: 816
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Alibi1,

You are flogging a dead horse.

Come back to this in a few years time if you wish but I think you will find we will all have long departed this BB with a nice profit way before then.

The only valid point is that a lower appetite for O&G shares (if that trend indeed establishes any traction) may well take the edge off the potential profit value of 2P reserves but no more than that.

On the other hand, massive lack of investment could well see the exact opposite occur.

Maybe you should get out of O&G investments and look to renewable energy companies. Just a thought.

GLA.
Cebo-456
Posts: 379
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
PS, LSE mod's, - we need spell check on here, or at least I do, or anyone reading my posts does. Small phone fat fingers and the refusal to regularly wear glasses doesn't help mind.
Cebo-456
Posts: 379
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Albi, I know BP have several FPSOs with approx 30year lifespans in the design or construction phase, as do other major oil companies. - That alone shows the confidence in the long term future of the industry.
Albi1
Posts: 622
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Yes Cebo-456,

However, in much the same way as we had horses and carts and now don't, electricity, nuclear power, solar, wind turbines ... there now appears to be a rather compelling momentum to make the next technological leap. Quite where Hurricane is going to fit in the middle of all this I really don't know!

Best

Albi
Albi1
Posts: 622
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
IamNot

Thanks for your thoughtful reply. My particular situation means I am heavily overweight on Hurricane. Actually I'm currently all in but frankly a bit embarrassed to admit to that.

I can't see any issues with this share apart from a political/geopolitical shift and yes, a 'black swan' moment. My thinking being buy low now, derisk incrementally at 20%, 40% etc... leaving the free shares to ride while reinvesting profit in a more sustainably diverse portfolio - actually, pretty much as AquaeSulis01, perhaps in jest, has posted!

I know renewables have been on the scene for decades now but what's definitely shifted is the political will to get behind them. I have a lot of reading to do around renewables and the players in the market, vanadium mining and the economic rise of China and Russia, China in particular is well positioned in Africa and at home to capitalize on a new wave of battery technology.

Biffadog, thanks for sharing your views. I am genuinely asking, particular those in the industry, what their views are with no intention to scaremonger but to hear different points of view in relation to my investment.

Thanks all.
Cebo-456
Posts: 379
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Albi, I did wonder for a minute about my investment in Hurricane in relation future oil demand.
When I say a minute, I am of you are exaggerating somewhat, as I was in the car
, using tyre made from Oil, infact the majority of the inside of the car was made in some part from Oil, as were the sun glasses, clothes and shoes that I was wearing (and the shoe polish if you want to be picky), oh and the golf bag, golf club grips, golf tees, golf balls that I used, all made from oil. Pre round I warmed up on the Artifitual turf (Made from Oil) before getting on the fairway (thankfully the fairway was grass (No oil), although the fertiliser was Oil based). Insect repellent and sunblock on (both oil based) I continued up the fairway which overlooked a couple of tree-huggers camping out pre-demo, in there tent (guess what that is made of) using mobiles (oil) with there oil based candles, beads and tanktops (oil) - no soap or toothpaste in sight though (probably avoided due to them being made from Oil).
Now don't get me wrong, I am concerned about global warming as the artificial ski slopes (more oil) really destroy the edge of my Ski's (mmm, wonder what they are made of - probably the same stuff is used to make my ski poles and ski wax.
Apologies for anyone that read the whole post, that a minute that you will never get back, which is slightly longer than the amount of sleep that I have lost worrying about future oil demand effecting my investment here.
IAmNotAnAnalyst
Posts: 316
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Albi, interesting post, however I can't see lots happening in the next 2 years really.

For the point about divestment I only see that as a temporary price depression. Oil still brings in an absolute truckload of money for companies and country's economies. If you say the objective of a company is either to pay dividends or get bought out it shouldn't matter if the price is depressed by economically irrational selling. Once the selling is done the MMs will put the price back up as those who are holding will value the share relative to its potential dividend or target takeover price; no amount of selling will change that unless at that point you need to get your money out or the company needs to raise money. Those are the two scenarios in which I could see long term damage done by selling....otherwise they are great buying opportunities, which incidentally is the reason I'm here at all. I had the impression oil was dead but now I know much better than that.

Which leads on to the second point about reduction of demand. If all electricity was generated renewably even that would only be a segment of oil demand...have you ever tried using a renewable powered generator? That doesn't work so well, and I think we like to think about well maintained, flexible national electricity infrastructure, but a lot of the world isn't like that at all.
From the other energy perspective we need to also replace every car with a non fossil fuel version, rapidly. Again, maybe possible thinking about the rich west but what about the rest of the world?! Also what about planes, boats and militaries...I think it'll be a while before we see electrically powered Humvees, tanks and aircraft carriers used.
The other major area is in plastics, textiles, as well as in detergents and pharmaceuticals etc. So that all needs replacing with an alternative, which presumably costs more to produce than oil based versions or are inferior (or both).

All in all, despite the need, I can't see things changing enough quickly enough to be 'safely' below 2deg warming. The problem isn't people's desires and morals to do better, it's a globalised world where the cheapest wins...so no country can undergo decarbonisation alone without destroying it's economy, unless we all do it together.

I will say though that the transition has begun, maybe a decade or so ago...however, it is a multidecade transition.

Good luck with your rebalancing, I will rebalance too at some point when I think the PoO is looking unstable. There could be a black swan though, like a horrifically difficult hot summer which could push the world to acting much more quickly, I can't see it happening yet though. Who knows what else will happen in the next decade!
Biffadog
Posts: 816
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
Albi1,

I think the reason "it didn't quite happen" is that this is a BB for an oil company and not a green environmental site.

Most on here believe that there is plenty of scope for fossil fuels in the foreseeable future and certainly plenty of scope to make a few quid out of HUR in the next one, two or three years.

Your point that investment managers may shy away from investing in oil companies is valid but whilst the demand for oil is still there in force and oil companies make good profits, I wouldn't worry too much.

This does not have a meaningful effect on anybody's investment in HUR as the timeframe is simply too short to make a seismic difference.

I will add as a caveat that it will obviously could take away some potential profit but it's not going to wreak havoc on your investment in HUR.

Why don't you focus on all the positive stuff HUR are doing as it's much more interesting than a shoddy attempt at scaremongering. Nigwit would be proud of you !!

GLA.
AquaeSulis01
Posts: 257
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
RE: Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
In 2 yrs time I see myself driving an affordable electric car made in China and powered by graphene enhanced batteries funded through a healthy profit from my Hurricane Energy shares
Albi1
Posts: 622
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.30
Share Price Depression
20 Apr '19
At the risk of getting shot down in flames, I'm posting this to see what other folks views are currently. Nigwit flagged this up some time ago for discussion but it didn't quite happen.

From what I have read in the last few years, particularly last few months, it would appear we have entered the transition stage from fossil fuels to non carbon dioxide emitting alternatives. Trees take decades to grow, but the technology for heat pumps, solar and wind has arrived. Vanadium batteries are improving and it will only be a matter of time before this technology develops to a point where the production of electricity is not linked to fossil fuel.

It’s interesting, geopolitically, 85% of the world’s vanadium, supposedly, is deposited in China, South Africa and Russia. Back home the challenge is how do we convert current housing stock to run on alternative systems. Where we thought we had more time to change clearly given the rate of ice melt at both poles, that time is now very finite to prevent an ongoing cycle of destruction to our ecosystem.

The fact is whatever your view on why it is happening, the climate is heating up at a rate of 1% and rising. The UK has committed along with other countries to keep it under 2%. If they are serious about this then we are going to see a radical shift in investment strategy in pension funds (major universities in the US and UK have divested) etc.

In turn that is going to affect us, it will depress the price and that is the goal of activists. How much it will depress the price - this year will tell us. Based on this I am going to rebalance my portfolio accordingly.

I hope I am wrong to the extent we still need an independent fuel source until renewables and the infrastructure to make them usable are able to take over. However, the main risk here is a seismic shift in sentiment and MM’s following the ‘new money’.

What do folk on this BB see unfolding in the next 2 years?




Share Price, Share Chat, Stock Market news at lse.co.uk
FREE Member Services
- Setup a personalised Watchlist and Virtual Portfolio.
- Gain access to LIVE real-time Regulatory News (RNS).
- View more Trades, Directors' Deals, and Broker Ratings.
Share Price, Share Chat, Stock Market news at lse.co.uk









Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look. While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.