Burnishing FY25 forecasts

Pan African’s headline EPS (HEPS) for H125 appeared to show a decline of 43.7% y-o-y relative to its (restated) prior year number. However, if the loss attributable to its Mintails contract liability and its 5.6% (4,779oz) under-sale of gold relative to production are stripped out, we calculate that its normalised HEPS number was c 2.78c and almost exactly in line with our prior expectations (see Exhibit 2). We have reduced our production expectation for the full year by 2.7%. Nevertheless, production in H225 is anticipated to rise 43.0% compared to H125 and is the perfect springboard for PAF to attain our (upgraded) normalised HEPS forecast of 11.19c in FY26 (which is slightly conservative within the consensus range; see Exhibit 6). Our...