RE: Looking strong7 Mar 2023 14:33
ASH - I aware I must be sounding like the lonely company cheerleader here, but its worth remembering what happened after the company launched in late 2019 and that infamous video appeared a few weeks later where helge mentioned they would 'probably go for production as a first deal' (which has been used as a stick to beat him with ever since).
Remember they had a couple of deals lined up and then Covid out the mockers on it all. The seller backed out and no deals were to be done as the oil price first went through the floor, and then not long afterwards shot through the roof. There were very few deals being done anywhere during this time, too much volatility and too much uncertainty.
Then not long after came the war in Ukraine, bringing further volatility that's not good for deal making, and that was after it was becoming more and more clear that private equity were prepared to pay sky high prices for Norwegian assets. Should they have gone down that route and paid sky high prices to get some production?
You can argue that one, but this change in the market post-covid must be the main reason why they now have a presence in Malaysia (perhaps as well as the UK becoming a basket case), a cheaper place to secure some producing assets.
So its fair to say that things have been far harder than they could have anticipated. I don't actually think they have done much wrong really though, even if the share price looks like the company must be a complete basket case.
The share price has been rubbish since the first week (did you hear the story about that?) and has gone from bad to worse, to incredibly depressing for longer term holders. But also a chance to average down, if, like me, you don't buy into the argument that the share price is a reflection of '**** poor management' or that there is no value or nothing to look forward to here.
We wait to see whether the first deal they did see value in and were able to land (an exploration package funded largely by the Norwegian Govt.) indeed met their test of only going for 'value accretive' deals. We should soon have a very good idea of that.
Egyptian Vulture not great but remember Oswig was successfully drilled after Longboat took a stake following a relinquished licence were OMVs then partners could not agree. I'm also not sure when the Egyptian Vulture discovery has ever been reflected in the actual share price. Oswig and Kveikje are the key discoveries and been obvious for a while now that EV is not a priority.
I am as unhappy about the share price as everyone else who has been around here for a while, however I still think this will come good in terms of sp (not sure when though) and I don't blame the company for the share price performance and am happy with the decisions they have taken, given the globally turbulent circumstances they've found themselves in. Of course I wish I'd have put a larger part of my Rockrose 'winnings' in Kistos rather than Longboat though!