Member Info for Vivas

Waiting for US election in November to see any change in Ukraine peace talks. Trump could win even if kamala is more popular (due to they way the election work). 50 - 50 chance.

if kamala wins it will be deadlock in war, a dividing line - similar to north and south Korea - Ukraine could end up like South korea still prosperous

if Trump wins it will be most likely end of war with loss of land in Ukraine but peace between Ukraine and Russia

Ukraine war looks more likely Russia will win with heavy loss. They will push Ukraine out off Kursk in Russia and take over donbass region. Russia will not be able to take over whole of Ukraine due to man power.

if there are no peace talks it will turn into North and South korea divided. if there are peace talks, Ukraine maybe able to take some land back.

for Ferrexpo is mines are about 240km away from the front lines and in my opinion Russia will not go that far due to there limitations.

Sorry wrong post ingnore

I expect around 30k BoPD,

"Gross average sales of c.28,800 bopd" 18,500 BoPD covers costs 21, 500 currently.

85million cash at bank. Waiting for pipeline to open. Jan demand should pick up if it snows. Still holding a few shares. I be back next month.

Declaration date 02 Jan 2024

Ex-div date 11 Jan 2024

Pay date 31 Jan 2024

Declaration date 02 Jan 2024

Ex-div date 11 Jan 2024

Pay date 31 Jan 2024

Better deal more profit for GKP

"Speaking at a conference on 21 Nov, Barzani said crude exports from N. Iraq to Turkey's Ceyhan port could only resume once the federal Iraqi government in Baghdad agreed to pay international oil companies (IOCs) operating in Iraqi Kurdistan in line with their existing contracts."

Wish I have more money to buy. RNS was positive yesterday.

Going to take a risk and go all in for the long haul.

"currently c.33,000 bopd and GKP is striving to increase sales volumes" "managing the start-up of wells"

last time I checked 23,000 bpd covered the cost 6million. now if they can get to 45,000bpd 8- 10million profit per month.

pipeline will open most likely now in October after tests

Begining of this year on one of gkp meeting. I sent a question to GKP, what contingency plan is there If the pipeline closed? . Is there other ways to export the oil. (Back up plan) no reply from them ( I sold some of my gkp shares)and then next thing you know the pipeline closed. This time there is a 99% chance the pipeline will open most likely in this year (on earlier than October) as some of the turkey meeting where suggesting. There will be a report soon on the pipeline review which will push the SP up. And than maybe a week after talks about opening. 100gbx is the good position to buy

Friday the SP normally goes down but with current info and October just over a week away. It might go either way.

With oil price going up am sure they can negotiate a better price.

If GKP is selling $12 a barrel (39%) 23,000bpd = $8,280,000 a month

$6,000,000 cost

Around 2 millon in profit per month

The comments I read was for 40k bpd. $50 pb is possible if there is cold winter or ukraine starts attacking oil pipeline in Russia

Reading some comments here. Increasing oil bpd and selling by truck, GKP can have £5 - £7million a month profit.

Increase the sale price from £30 to £50 will also increase the profit .

longer term when pipeline opens GKP will be in better position from cost efficiency, and to having more options to export oil rather than just the pipeline e.g if earthquake happens again (which stop the oil pipeline).

16.6% dividend return at current price with 2p dividend. Which is great

Next payment date is on 28th September, 2023 with an ex-dividend date of 8th September, 2023.

This should be going 13p closer to ex Dividend date

92 gbx seems like steal when the fair value is £1.46 (Simply Wall St)

- 1 year of revenue/cash to keep going

- selling 23kbpd

- oil price going up

- winter is coming

- near the bottom

There is a risk and to me they have 1 year to fix it.

Hopefully I can buy Tomorrow at this price.

Winter is coming and the price of oil will go up. Even local

Overall not bad news.

23100bopd is a plus

Management is making the right choices to retain cash