Member Info for Thorpedo

Kempey

UKOG have Production Licences, as yet they dont have the planning permission to produce. IMO this is little more than a formality.

SCC cant give permission to drill, permission to test and then refuse permission to produce. It doesnt work like that.

Planning Permission will be given to produce and then UKOG will complete the process so that it can move in to Production.

I think a Kimmeridge duster is built in to SP.

I keep looking at the figures and UKOG SP is supported on HH Portland alone.

SP values

HH Portland - £100m - about right
HH Kimmeridge - £Nil
BB - £Nil
IOW - £Nil

So if bad news does come in, then the SP should keep firm (except for MMs games)

If/when Kimmeridge good news hits then there will be a massive rerate.

Good Kimmeridge also increases the value of other assets. Especially BB.

Seadoc
Are you really trying to value UKOG based on the current value of the outputs of the test. I mean Really?

Words fail me.

Was just about to post something similar except for the twitter thing.

I want ANGS to do well, I want as much extractable oil as possible in the KL. HH is still the sideshow for me, yes it will be a nice additional income/saleable asset but I am here for the long term proving the Weald and cashing in on BB. Brockham, HH etc are both showing what a great opportunity we PIs have here at UKOG and also over at ANGS

GLA

* 16 tankers

Seadoc
I have seen 20 HGV movements being 10 in and 10 out in the past so see the reasoning behind your misunderstanding. However your link (which is an extract of the EIA scoping report for 500 tonnes per day http://www.horsehilldevelopments.co.uk/ul/Horse%20Hill%20Production%20EIA%20Scoping%20Report%20051018.pdf

clearly says 2-Way HGV Movements (In & Out) meaning 20 tankers per day.

20 tankers * 220barrels per tanker = 3,520barrels * 0.14barrels/tonne = 492.8 tonnes.

Seadoc
Simple because HGV movements are part of PP. It is the impact statement part.

I think in previous planning applications which went through there was up to 20 HGV movements so the numbers in your link will not be a problem.

Penguins
I agree with your statement "HHDL already have a production licence (PEDL) granted by the OGA I presume you are either referring to planning permission for production which is granted by Surrey County Council or Field Development Plan (FDP) approval which is granted by the OGA, and you can't produce without all 3 (Production Licence, PP & FDP) in place."

I dont see the Planning Permission being to difficult to get saying they have given us permission to drill and test. The FDP is more a crossing of i's and dotting of t's so as long as we engage the OGA throughout the process it should be authorised within days of getting the PP.

Brockham's planning permission took 4 months from Application to Final Decision https://planning.surreycc.gov.uk/planappdisp.aspx?Appno=SCC+Ref+2017%2f0089 I am more than happy to wait until March 2019 to turn on those Gushing Taps.

Whilst waiting we should have plenty of good news about KL3 & KL4 plus IOW and BB.

It cant.

JiffyBag
Licences are for a defined area production is just part of that licence, a licence cannot be used for a different area.

https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/onshore/licensing-regime/

The Production Licence doesnt exist per se, the PEDL has three stages the third stage is Production. You cant go in to the the third stage until all of the relevant consents are in place ie planning, Environmental Agency, Health & Safety Executive etc. Once they are in place then the PEDL moves in to stage three the Production stage.

FatJock
I think the stagnation is all to do with Solo, there may be plenty of LTH with their position but I would have thought that many will have had a top up recently at these low prices with the derisk we have had recently. I know I have.

Risk reward makes this a very strong but imo

You are if you believe that all your deramping helped bring the SP down to the level you bought in at or if you believe your ramping will take the price higher.

You are not for buying in at such a low price which imo will rerate significantly once solo are gone.

PS I was waiting for the Angus overhang to clear before investing, unfortunately I missed the boat, that was a costly mistake.

Good find JiffyBag, however I dont think that Marlborough are investing in UKOG, I think that they are one of the two ii taking part of the placing announced on 2 July 2018. If you look at page 51 http://funds.marlboroughfunds.com/uploads/documents/15384687878857f73b0f63f528de5d107771725f162ba.pdf
will see that they bought £2,505798 and sold £2,467,797 shares in the period to 31 July 2017. Looks like half the placing shares. I presume that they will have either sold the remaining 31m shares per page 56 if that is their MO or keep them as virtually free shares.

The good news is that the £5m placing in July have been washed and we just need to wait for Solo to stop selling or sell out completely. Either scenario shouldnt be far away now.

So with plenty of good news to come, and little overhang left then the SP should rerate to match the news which has already been announced, and the news which is coming.

Scandic
Have you never heard of Jonathan Tidswell.

Think that is HHDL's $500K which will be used for HHDL. It isnt UKOGs HH2 is already funded and HH3 isnt due until Q4 next year. I think that it will easily be able to self fund.

UKOG has also got enough funds for its other projects for 2019. All looking very good for UKOG.

@Toughiv
Do you not understand what a PEDL is? It is a licence that allows "Production" it comes in three stages, the third one being "Production", we are just not at that stage yet and need some other things in place first such as planning permission. Do you think that SCC will not give the planning permission when it has so far?

Regarding the other wells, HH2 is already funded, HH3 isn due until Q4 next year with a new well every three months thereafter - they will be self-funded. - see the scoping study for details, Page 10 - http://www.horsehilldevelopments.co.uk/ul/Horse%20Hill%20Production%20EIA%20Scoping%20Report%20051018.pdf

@Scandic
SOLO are not a partner, they are now just a shareholder like me (unlike you). They have no additional knowledge, they seized to be a partner prior to the initial Kimmeridge results.

They like other shareholders are making their investment decisions to suit themselves. They need cash to fund other parts of their business and cashing in UKOG is their best source of finance. Fortunately, I dont so I can continue to hold mine.