Member Info for TheFarEnd

The UK housing market showed signs of distress in November as the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reflected what analysts characterized as an unenthusiastic response from estate agents to the government’s Budget announcement.

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey revealed that all near-term metrics turned negative, with house prices continuing to face modest downward pressure at the national level.

The trade body indicated that the subdued backdrop is expected to persist over coming months, the report said.

Some of Britain’s biggest savings and insurance groups are expected to take an early look at Aegon’s UK business, which has been pushed into a strategic review as the Dutch group prepares to rebrand as Transamerica and shift its centre to the US.

Panmure Liberum flags a broad field of potential bidders. Phoenix Group, Aviva, Royal London, M&G and Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY) are all seen as plausible trade buyers.

Buybacks or bidder for Aegon?

“RBC Capital Markets laid out a selective investment strategy for UK and Irish banks heading into 2026, expressing a preference for small and mid-sized lenders while taking a more cautious stance on large institutions and Irish banks.

RBC expects a three-year average total return yield of 10.1%, comprising a 5% dividend yield and 5.1% from buybacks, exceeding the consensus estimate of 9.5%.

RBC’s preferred names include Metro Bank, OSB Group, Paragon Banking Group, Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays.

Lloyds Banking Group

Lloyds holds an “outperform” rating with a 110p price target, representing 15% upside from its 96p share price as of the report date.

Barclays

Barclays carries an “outperform” rating with a 525p price target, implying 20% upside from its 439p price as of the report. RBC positions Barclays as "the obvious catch-up trade for those who have missed the UK bank rally,"

NatWest Group

NatWest receives a “sector perform” rating with a 725p price target, representing 17% upside from its 622p price.

HSBC Holdings

HSBC holds a “sector perform” rating with a 1,050p price target, implying a 2% downside from its 1,071p price. RBC struggles to identify a catalyst for the bank, expecting Chinese commercial real estate to continue weighing on performance.

OSB Group

OSB Group carries an “outperform” rating with a 725p price target, representing 28% upside from its 567p price.

Metro Bank

Metro Bank holds an “outperform” rating with a 175p price target, implying 60% upside from its 110p price, the highest potential return among RBC’s UK coverage. The brokerage believes the market under appreciates that Metro Bank will likely deliver a mid-to-upper teens return on tangible equity by the fourth quarter of 2026, according to the report.

Paragon Banking Group

Paragon receives an “outperform” rating with a 1,050p price target, representing 35% upside from its 778p price.

Close Brothers Group

Close Brothers holds a “sector perform” rating with a 475p price target, representing 6% upside from its 448p price. RBC expects the bank’s shares could "tread water" until it has sufficient capital to pursue cost reductions more aggressively, according to the report.

AIB Group

AIB Group carries a “sector perform” rating with an €8.50 price target, representing a 3% downside from its €8.8 price as of the report date.

Bank of Ireland

Bank of Ireland holds a “sector perform” rating with a €15.50 price target, implying a 2% downside from its €15.9 price. RBC sees Irish bank valuations as relatively full.”

But when have forecasts ever lived up to their expectations? You decide.

"From hero to zero: are Lloyds shares a ticking time-bomb after a 70% gain in 2025?”

All very positive but thank fk for SAGA, over 180% gain so far this year. It was worth the wait.

Just saying.

"TheFarEnd, do you shop frequently in Poundland?"

STP.

Yeah, it's the go-to place for us. We get all our vegetables there.

FTSE flat on opening, waiting for the Fed decision this week.

It's not only pubs closing across the country but if peeps can't afford to shop in Poundland then it must be dire out there.

The same Poundland that was ironically sold for just one pound last June and just managed to avoid administration.

After two disastrous budgets with ever increasing costs, the ‘new’ minimum wage, changes to business rates, consumer confidence plummeting and no growth support from this current regime, what do we expect?

"The British Retail Consortium (BRC), highlighted the cumulative burden of rising costs threatening jobs, investment, and the high street, while also pointing to high rates of staff abuse and job insecurity.

Independent retailers described facing a "perfect storm" of costs, with little positive news for growth.

In essence, the Budget exacerbated existing economic pressures, creating a tough trading environment with increased operational costs and reduced consumer spending power."

But hey, on a positive note, “growth is our number one priority.”

Phew, that's a relief then, we can all relax.🥴

On 1 December 2025 the FSCS deposit protection rose to £120,000.

Historical limits

From 30 January 2017 to 30 November 2025 - £85,000

From 1 January 2016 to 29 January 2017 - £75,000

From 31 December 2010 to 31 December 2015 - £85,000

From 7 October 2008 to 30 December 2010 - £50,000

From 1 October 2007 to 6 October 2008 - £35,00

From 1 December 2001 to 30 September 2007 - £31,700

The FSCS limit dropped to £75,000 in 2016 because the UK's deposit protection (mandated by the EU) needed recalibration; the £85,000 limit set in 2010 became worth more than the €100,000 EU standard due to sterling's strength, so it was adjusted down to £75,000 to align. The current EU scheme coverage amount protects eligible deposits up to a maximum of (still unchanged) €100,000.

UK Standard Deposits: The protection limit is now £120,000 per person, per authorized firm.

Joint Accounts: Joint accounts are protected up to £240,000 (two people at £120,000 each).

Temporary High Balances (THB): Protection for funds from life events (like house sales or insurance payouts) increased to £1.4 million for up to six months.

Who Made the Change?

The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) (part of the Bank of England) set the new limits after a consultation process.

Apologies if posted before.

ASI.

Just too easy to blame Brexit, it's the go-to excuse for many.

I'm not saying it didn't have some contributing factors but various other factors were also responsible.

For a start, the absolute shambolic way MP’s of all parties reacted to the result with the loudest cries from the current government for another referendum. So much so that now they're in government rejoining is on their lips again.

COVID caused a world shortage of building materials, commodity prices went ballistic followed by the Ukraine war which disrupted supply.

The UK may have been more vulnerable at that time due to ongoing negotiations but you've strayed off the original post ASI.

Just to remind you, my reply was about the construction industry's steepest decline in 5½ years, that's why I blamed the last two budgets and the time in-between.

But of course AI doesn't know the full story unless you mention it, does it?

‘Construction output saw the steepest downturn in five-and-a-half years in November, according to the latest S&P Global PMI index. Housing activity, commercial construction and civil engineering all saw sharp falls, while 44% of businesses reported a drop in new orders. Not good news for Labour’s supposed housebuilding ambitions…

Employment numbers across the sector dropped for the eleventh consecutive month, with the fall in staffing levels the greatest since August 2020. Tim Moore of S&P Global blamed the Budget.’

Personally I blame both the last two budgets and the time between them.

The government's so-called pledge to build 1.5 million new homes in England over their first term in office was yet another figure plucked out of the sky to woo the gullible. It's fortunate that Lloyds Living is doing their bit to try and keep the house market fluid. However, with all long-term UK economic growth prospects plummeting, that's a hard task.

Why do you think there is a “lack of economic confidence amongst businesses” STP?

Care to enlighten us all.

We have HMRC taking money from your bank account without your authority.

Now we have Lammy ditching trial by jury.

Slowly slowly, it's all about control. Control of your money, control of the judges, (ask Lucy Connolly).

Incidentally, didn't Hitler take control of the judges in the thirties?

Your freedoms are being eroded and Labour are gambling with the nation's finances.

This won't end well.

The UK government has officially announced a significant change in how HMRC will interact with the financial data of its citizens.

A new rule will see a closer connection between bank accounts and Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC).

The primary objective of this new HMRC rule is to close the ‘tax gap’—the difference between the amount of tax that should be paid and the amount that is actually collected.

A key component of the forthcoming regulation involves mandating banks and building societies to collect and share additional customer data with HMRC. Specifically, there is an upcoming requirement to link savings accounts to the customer’s National Insurance (NI) number. This targeted measure aims to improve the automatic collection of tax due on savings interest.

Currently, a significant portion of the interest data provided by financial institutions is deemed ‘unreadable’ or lacks the necessary identifiers for HMRC to automatically collect the correct tax. The introduction of the NI number as a mandatory link is designed to solve this administrative challenge. This will streamline the process for approximately 2.64 million savers who currently receive a bill for tax on their savings income.

Increased Data and Surveillance Powers.

The system will match bank account data with declared income, property ownership, online platform sales (such as from eBay or Airbnb), and other financial activities. Any substantial discrepancies between a person’s declared income and their financial movements could trigger an automated investigation flag. For the average, compliant person, this enhanced surveillance should be invisible, but it creates a powerful deterrent for tax evaders.

Alongside increased data visibility, HMRC has been granted, or is relaunching, more aggressive debt recovery tools. The Direct Recovery of Debts (DRD) scheme allows HMRC to take unpaid tax directly from a person’s bank or building society account without needing a court order.

Unsurprisingly, the new powers have ignited a debate over taxpayer privacy and the balance of state power. Critics, including former Cabinet ministers, have voiced concerns that the state is becoming unduly intrusive. Tax experts warn that the new powers are ‘draconian’ and could unfairly catch individuals in financial difficulty or lead to errors due to automated processes.

HMRC maintains that robust safeguards are embedded within the legislation. Their stated aim is not to conduct indiscriminate ‘fishing expeditions’ but to use the data to target high-risk profiles effectively. Taxpayers retain the right to appeal any debt recovery action. Transparency and communication from HMRC before any formal investigation or recovery action are still statutory requirements, providing a window for resolution.

“The BoE has sounded the alarm about foreign hedge funds buying up UK debt, warning that their speculative trades could spark a crisis.

The British Government is becoming increasingly reliant on a small group of opaque foreign investors to finance its large deficit, Threadneedle Street officials warned.

Buying UK government bonds, known as gilts, allows hedge funds to bet on tiny differentials between current and future prices.

However, they also often borrow against the same gilts to juice the returns on their investments.

Hedge funds borrowed £100bn secured against gilts in November – the highest since records began in 2017.

The Bank is worried that this could all collapse like a house of cards in response to a financial shock, potentially sparking a doom loop of fire sales as hedge funds offload gilts to cover losses on these loans.”

Blanking stress test, another welcome process after the debacle of the last labour government left the UK in the perilous state to which it is heading now.

History repeating itself, will they ever learn.

Probably pushed for uncovering, for all to see, the government lying on the lead up to this yet another Omni shambles budget.

Just a temporary hiccup before the inevitable happens.

Nothing has changed.

The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) and European stocks started December on the back foot, selling off as markets opened and chancellor Rachel Reeves continues to defend the details of last week's budget and her actions in the lead-up to it.

Reeves faces accusations that she misled the public in the weeks preceding the budget by overstating the dire state of public finances.

It was "clear" that the UK's productivity performance was "weaker than previously thought", Reeves said in a speech last month.

Critics point to a letter from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) at the end of October with calculations showing higher wages may offset the weakness in productivity. The letter also seems to show that Reeves was on track to meet her fiscal rules by 2029/30.

Prime minister Keir Starmer is set to speak (does that mean is set to lie) later on Monday morning, and is expected to defend the government's actions in an address about welfare reform at around 10.30am.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ftse-100-live-stock-markets-wall-street-reeves-budget-090654386.html

Yeah, bye for now. Time to get those boots on and go for a long walk to clear your head 🗣️

“The Pound (GBP) saw some volatility in the run-up to the autumn budget, with GBP investors on edge as they awaited the announcement.Sterling then enjoyed support as the budget was announced, thanks to a relief rally.

An end to the uncertainty that had plagued the Pound in recent weeks, paired with a calm response from bond markets, boosted GBP demand.

However, the Pound found its gains limited as markets fully digested the budget.

Many of the tax rises won’t be fully implemented until the end of this parliament, leading some to question whether Labour will actually roll them out so close to a general election.”

Exchange.Rates.org.UK

Gunsup, 👍

Someone's been rolling on the floor for too long. No good laughing about down there. Time to stand up, take those red blinkers off, look around and see what is actually happening to this country.

Gunsup.

Not sure about Comex and LMBE, are you talking about the price divergence?

I bought a few GLEN recently and they haven't disappointed so far. Good ol' Glenda has served us well in the past.