more value ahead ...12 May 2020 16:03
Excellent post by dodddavid below.... copied from yesterday .....
Anyone understand what risk the market is pricing in here other the a possible mid-term dent to training and consulting services it provides to airlines? Whats the Bear case?
£2 million net cash now, likely to be £10 million + by year end. Freight and US sales growing at a fair clip over the last couple of years. Normal earnings (from 2022) likely to be £6-7 million a year taking in to account the recent acquisition, and discounting what was a weak H2 2019, and the accounting issue in 2018.
It seems AIR will make short term bumper profits this year, and no doubt there will be strength in the private jet market over the next 24 months (so increased one-off earnings in 2021 too, but not at 2020 levels). They could surely support a 4 Million + dividend, and are in a good position to establish their new offices given current demand, and may see residual growth on the back of the increased exposure over the next couple of years.
Many airlines wont return to anywhere near 80-90% of capacity for several months and PPE demand is still high. Even without the ongoing risk of a second flare up (and more repatriation flights), this looks good for AIR. There also might be another squeeze on freight as the lockdowns are eased whilst capacity stays grounded.
This all adds up to a business that is worth at lease £65-75 million (without any premium for the fact this appears to be one of very few safe businesses in the current environment.
I'm in at £26 million (50p)
What am I missing here?
surprised reply ..
Hi dodddavid, you are missing nothing imo.....it's a bargain price at current levels and some made the mistake of treating AIR as an airline, when we know they operate in a niche sector and a profitable now and going forward, the figures speak for themselves as you have mapped out below ...patience and resolve shoud see a challenge on years highs going forward, :-)