Member Info for surprised

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1339155575486164993

this will likley be a job for SFR , Heathrow Airport: Supreme Court gives go-ahead for third runway, they did terminal 2 ;-)

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1338751692024770560

Results day = vey good - Profit Before Tax of £9.2m growth of 30%, net cash of £15.9m Revenue growth of 27%,

and we can happily state 'a lot to look forward too' even at 9p as the mcap only sits around £40m today with CPX having succeeded in improving their underlying trading performance, growing sales and doubling the orderbook.

I'msure we will not go up in a straight line from here, however, clearly there is a lot more value ahead...a lot more :-)

The Board remains confident that the first manufactured supercapacitor products will be available for shipment to customers before the end of the current calendar year.

The Board believes that the positive impact on the Company's sales and profitability will be transformational.

Ioxus was liable for infringing CAP-XX's patents and awarded CAP-XX damages of US$4.95m plus legal fees. CAP-XX is pursuing Ioxus for the payment of the awarded damages.

The commissioning of the Murata production lines will transform the Company's sales and cash flow position.

Tesla/Maxwell IP infringement, (based on the Ioxus case it could be a further exponential game changer)

R&D tax rebate which is expected to be approximately A$3.2 million expected to be received before the end of the current calendar year.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1338548533700464641

fabulous gesture Chris, you're a good man (my late mother would be very pleased) and equally great you're making profits too

Prem now under 5 percent, a bit more to go and the brakes will be off :-)

Hi snakeeyes1875, I've had RPS on watch list for a while however, the temporary price drop back down here in the mid 60's provides a very nice opportunity I think for much greater value going forward :-)

good spot StPeter, yes value in clearpay increasing to mcap and more alone clearly suggests a large value gap in the current sp to what we should expect going forward and with such a large valuation gap/disparity highlighted by the FT article at some point the market will cotton on in addition to the excellent on going growth of the business, I see the IC are stating at least 90p for fair value, I'll go with that and as clearpay also increases in value that target could/should rise further :-)

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1338402958862659584

I'm in :-)

Hi Skid, I see your distain for Investors Chronicle analysts, their use of NAV and even some other investors approach, however, there are a number of ways of valuing a company as you know. Tech companies with no income are a hard act to value, those with income, conttracts a lot easier and with both income and tangibles with a few intangibles it gets more exciting to add the figures.
I guess skid you have never invested in the tech giants Tesla, Apple, etc as they woud be impossible to value, an opportunity missed maybe ? Stocks and shares is far from a simple accounting process or everyone would be able to see potential, read a balnce sheet etc it's a far more nuanced assesment.

I equally am simply highlighting the opportunity here if all is as it appears, business returning to normal, new conracts, a fall from 20p to 12p due to the write down and work underway on contracts worth more than the current mcap, a simple recovery play over coming weeks/months.

takes all sort to make a market :-)

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/936101/kromek-group-say-two-contract-extensions-prove-business-is-back-to-normality-936101.html

Hi Skid, I see your worries continue over the write down and the share price, as we have discussed frequently, as noted by all other posters has halved in recent weeks from over 20p.
To me and it appears the analysts at InvestorsChronicle this aspect has very likely been priced in at current level, why else would the sp be here, particularly with a nav at a 40% + discount at this level too ? All suggests an sp looking ahead, not backwards (priced in) that closer to 20p is a more realistic valuation. Add in new contracts, the start of delevery of the £45m contracts detailed and we have potentially very positive outlook from here.

The sp is unable to make traction at present as it seems Prem are reducing their holding, standard practrice when a companies mcap drops below £50m as we know and often provides opportunity.

With respect Skid, you're an accountant, you like facts and figures, not sentiment etc, however, you appear to ignore the IC analysts valuation of facts and figures relating to the net asset value of the company ie aprox 18-20p, surely that alone would suggest a large degree of comfort for an 'investor' if you feel 'traders' ignore these things. The NAV alone does not take into acoount any future potential contracts and as investing is about looking forward there are potentially greater rewards ahead.
It is healthy to have a debate about the differing views of a company and I would like to think my own stance on investing would suggest a higher degree of consideration to a company's prospects and that of my hard earned investment money than simply ignoring any potential downside. There exists potential downside , some visible some not, in any investment consideration, however, clearly here there is also a greater chance of a large upside based on the sp performance (write down built in as price fell from 20p to 12p, ) the start of the £45m contract delivery (kmk mcap alone is £2m less than this at £40m) the potential for new contracts as we have recently seen and clearly if the write down aspect is built back in then a rapid rise back closer to 20p (as you say yourslf skid,if cfo confirms positively the sp will rise back up... also suggesting the write down is 'built in', as you can't be on both sides of the 'built in'argument.

I view KMK as a recovery stock from current levels and all that I have researched suggests so, hence I have a stake
in the potential recovery, .
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/936101/kromek-group-say-two-contract-extensions-prove-business-is-back-to-normality-936101.html
The contract extensions are worth a total of £460,000 and will be delivered in the current fiscal year. Basu says this news represents the "continuation of the efforts towards the final goal of large scale implementation as the key message".

As its key customers get back to business, as does Kromek, Basu says.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1337314449556971522

in addition to the FT piece below and with TSL cash £9.8m prior to dividend payout, £4m net assets a valuation of £100m+ equates to a 94p a share vaution

IC article October --- ThinkSmart’s 6.5 per cent fully diluted stake in Clearpay was last valued at £53.7m at 30 June 2020 after applying a 20 per cent liquidity discount. Afterpay’s share price was A$61 at the time. Using the same methodology, the read-through valuation is now £86m (81p a share). Add to that ThinkSmart’s £9.8m cash pile (before the dividend payout) and £4m of other net assets on its balance sheet, mainly finance lease receivables, and I arrive at a sum-of-the-parts valuation of £100m (94p a share)

The point is that there is now a huge incentive for Afterpay to try to buy out ThinkSmart’s minority interest in Clearpay before its call option becomes exercisable in 2023. Clearpay is one of the fastest growing e-commerce payment companies in the European market, so can only become more valuable. For instance, the business now has more than 1m active customers (more than 10 per cent of Afterpay’s total customer base), is recruiting new merchants at quite a pace, and Afterpay is accelerating Clearpay’s expansion into Europe through last summer’s acquisition of Pagantis. This will enable Clearpay to enter Spain, France, Italy and potentially Portugal, regions that have a combined addressable e-commerce market worth more than US$247bn, according to Ecommerce Europe, an association representing 100,000-plus companies selling goods and services online to consumers in Europe.

Trading on an unwarranted 50 per cent discount to my sum-of-the-parts valuation of 94p, the pricing anomaly is worth exploiting. Strong buy.

''......ThinkSmart’s valuation of A$1.9bn, the price would be 73 times trailing sales. For a business that increased revenues 180 times in its first full year of operation, that doesn’t seem particularly egregious.

Nor does it seem mad when you look at the other data. Towards the end of June, Afterpay also boasted that Clearpay is “one of the fastest growing ecommerce payment companies in the European market” with 1m active shoppers, which is a tenth of its total active customers. A press release from last week also showed that the UK made up around 10 per cent of Afterpay’s monthly underlying sales.

So if Afterpay is valued at A$28bn, under a tenth of that feels about right for Clearpay’s market value.

ThinkSmart is valued today at just £62m. Its 10 per cent stake in Clearpay alone is, according to who you ask at least, worth more than that.

that’s a valuation discount that should eventually close .....''

https://www.ft.com/content/91db3d6e-cfa1-450d-bee4-7fa09e5907c0

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1336966641230417920

likely to be a steady increase in sp over next month or two as they continue to grow contracts across many divisions of company from new Hydrogen, Defence, Ai to carbon capture etc

:-)

looks like good odds we wont be going back to 5p then :-)

well KMK went to 10p+ on the initial drop, after results, then recovered to 14p+ and over past couple of weeks sat around 11p to 13p...so for a perspective view of upside v downside, when the inital reaction was that there had been a 'downgrade' the sp went to 10p , KMK had been comfortably in the 20p range for some time previous, however the drop to 10p was quickly rectified as the sp jumped within two days to 14p+ the IC article stating investors had panicked and over looked some of the factors and that a large re rating of the sp was potentially on the cards.
So we have potentially a worst case scenario (the 'skid concerns' aspects , if not already priced in and I would suggest, as do IC , that concerns are already priced in at this level) a 10% ish chance of dropping back to 10p if others shared same concerns against the potential 75% upside on the IC research article published after the results a couple of weeks ago.

In addition KMK have started servicing two contracts worth contract worth £45m (KMK mcap is only £42m)
' The contracts should deliver revenues worth millions of dollars in current financial year+ other contracts. KMK is under valued by at least 40% to net asset value when at 13p, states Investors Chronicle and has a large established client list suggesting a Value gap exits in the current sp.

Further to the above today KMK have announced a contract extension with a Government Agency to add further value to the potential.

risk v reward currently points to a great deal more upside imo :-)

re ST and the Investors chronicle, I can't speak for him, however, I would be 'surprised' if he was embarrased, why would he be? I don't expect anyone assumes a trip back to 20p+ will happen in a matter of days, it takes time for value to work it's way back into the sp and all the various aspects that 'play' on the sp .

A 75% rise from current levels back to around the 22p level over a few weeks or months is an attractive proposition to investors and the Investors Chronicle research and assesment suggests the potential very much exists from here as stated in the recent article posted a week or two ago.

blimey Skid, you're an accountant offering a free service to prospective investors !!

no more words :-)

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1336267515337568263

Transformational period starting this month from aim minnow with a global IP/licence to manufacturer/producer with a global IP (defended) that is required by many of the majors TDK, Maxwell/Tesla etc.

order book grown by 10%+ in last 3 weeks. Orders over twice value at same time 2019. Progress re licencing/patent infringement Maxwell/Tesla + higher margin revenue. A$3.2 million R&D tax rebate due this month. First production shipments to customers begin Dec.

The Board is pleased to report that the Group traded profitably during the Period and, as a result, anticipates reporting Profit Before Tax of approximately £9m in its next audited accounts covering the 18-month period from 1 April 2019 to 30 September 2020. The Group's balance sheet and liquidity remains strong with cash of approximately £16m at the Period end and an undrawn revolving credit facility of £10m.