Rebound on hold12 Mar 2020 07:04
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/battery-metals-investing/vanadium-investing/vanadium-comeback-on-hold-coronavirus/
A rebound in the vanadium space is now on hold as market watchers wait to see how the coronavirus outbreak may impact the space.
At the end of last year, experts expected the vanadium market to remain balanced, setting their sights on developments in China in terms of higher demand or lower supply.
But the start of the year is changing the outlook for most metals, including vanadium, as the coronavirus crisis, which started in Wuhan, Hubei, in China, has everyone in a wait-and-see mode.
Most vanadium output is used in the Asian country for steel applications, particularly the high-strength, low-alloy steel used to make construction rebar.
Last year, rebar production in China increased by 19.1 percent, according to research firm Roskill. Demand from the rebar segment is forecast to increase moderately in 2020 and 2021, in line with the country’s crude steel production.
But there probably isn’t much supply upside in 2020, Roskill Director Jack Bedder told the Investing News Network (INN).
“China’s large steel producers are producing close to full capacity in terms of vanadium **** capacity, so there isn’t much upside via the co-production route.”
Co-producers are low-cost vanadium producers that account for about 50 percent of vanadium output.
“All in all, with the outlook for demand solid and with co-production constrained, we expected a balanced market in 2020,” Bedder said. “But the situation could be significantly impacted by COVID-19.”
The World Health Organization, which declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic on Wednesday (March 11), has said that more than 125,000 people around the world have been infected, with the death toll standing at more than 4,600. Recovery cases are above 67,000.
“This is hard to predict,” Bedder said. “Vanadium is mostly produced and consumed in China, and thus China’s recovery from the epidemic will be a key factor.”
According to Roskill, data suggests a significant drop in construction and rebar production so far this year, with rebar inventories at record highs in February.
Similarly, CRU Group Senior Consultant Willis Thomas told INN that what happens with vanadium prices in 2020 will depend on the impact of the coronavirus.
“Pre-COVID-19, we expected vanadium prices to more likely rise to the end of the year than fall, but the virus rules all at this point,” he said.
For the expert, if the coronavirus crisis had happened five years ago, there might have been more price action in the initial stages of the outbreak.
“Why? Because at that time China was a major net exporter,” he said. “However, recent demand moves in China have moved the market to a slim net exporter in 2019 overall.” That resulted in a more muted loss than in other commodities.