Member Info for Slipperman55

Good call. Results sure don't explain the rise.

If you strip inflation from their LFLs sales on current businesses aren't stellar. They give the change in net debt but not the actual net debt. Bike sales are tanking, which if you go into a retail store won't surprise anyone. Institutions are going to look at this as a declining retail business, and as the car industry migrates to electric, tyre company with big overheads.

Profit before tax is pretty scary. They continue to buy business but aren't making any money.

I'm surprised that they didn't provide an update on labour supply issues which they highlighted as a constraint at year end. Generally sounds very positive.

Lowering salary cap on "Skilled workers " - minor help .
Minimum wage increase - major hurt.
Hint that interest rates likely to fall - medium help.
Incentives for bikes and e-scooters - help, but unlikely.
Increased MOT time period - major hurt.

Halfords in a tough spot right now.

If you are a shareholder, hop on train and wonder around Victoria or Waterloo stations where SSP have a number of high footfall prime sites. Footfall numbers have been pretty good in run up to Xmas, so sales should be pretty healthy, but they aren't. There aren't any queues because a 1/3 or more of the SSP shops are closed. Why? They can't get staff. It's a systemic problem.

I question whether a stick that is this illiquid should be listed.

This all sounds like mumbo jumbo in the current market. Halfords, like most stocks right now, is very heavily influenced by the shower of ****e that is running our country and by the war. Halfords will undoubtedly bounce back but I don't see a change of govt or end to the war in the near future.

I doubt that this forum has any influence on the SP.

To be "recession resistant" I would want to see: inelastic demand for most of their output, margins in the high teens, low fixed costs relative to sales, and low levels of debt. Halfords don't score very well on the above.

The budget will likely help companies like this one, but a weak £, growing recession, lower spend on discretionary items, faster transition towards EVs, and very tight margins all point a cash flow squeeze going forward. Looking like sub £1. It's not a stock that pension funds or many institutions can consider.

It was an OK update, given the circumstances, but if you add inflation LFLs are soft. They have a very good management team but I would expect any more analyst reports to be pretty negative. If the war ends they will have a very good run. Compared to FTSE250 over the last six months they have struggled. I may buy but not at this price level.

Analysts reports often follow AGM and trading updates. If report is likely to be negative, expect a fall pre-release.

MPC meeting setting interest rates on the 22nd will be important, also any new analyst updates. It's a good company with a history of paying out regular dividends, against this it's not a great stock for UK pension funds: market cap too small, share price too volatile, earnings are from retail and a large slug of current earnings are from non-EV cars where earnings will disappear. PE and market cap look historically low, however UK economy will get worse unless war ends pronto.

Did anyone go to the AGM?

Did anyone go to the AGM?

It's a very low margin business model. £65m profit on revenues of £1.4b is pretty scary. If you strip out inflation LFL are flat or negative. Retail LFL are dragging them down. Cycling boom looks to be over, or more competition. Servicing is growing but that's a sunset business. I'd like to know average EV spend on servicing. The period quoted is to August, my guess are conditions are getting worse in run up to Christmas.

My guess on the trading update: Servicing numbers are steady but below inflation LFLs. Retail is soft and margins are falling. My guess is retail sales are down 2-3 % and margins down 6-8%. Input costs and overheads are eating into margins. Announce possible additional store closures...

I think the main message is that the UK economy has a very, very tough year ahead and we are about to see a total arse for PM.

A very difficult journey ahead for Halfords and for the UK. Supply side (cost) inflation that can't be cured with interest rate rises. Debt to GDP ratio of 95%, £2.4 trillion of debt, negative growth, high UK borrowing costs, nasty private sector debt hidden in car leasing, lots of contracting sectors (hospitality) = less VAT, crazy sector specific inflation (try building), and then you add Liz T to this. I like company and management team. If there were any sign of an end to the war I'll wade in. A few days ago I said 130s. Now looking like 110s. Market cap of £280m seems low.

iz T is going to blame the B of E and