Member Info for SkaLasNorse

Peak

As a long term holder I realised that having 60%+ of my holdings in RR is too much regardless of what the future brings. I reduced it to 33 %. The journey since the 2020 shipwreck has been stellar.

Cheers

Go North, go Norse.

Thank you Svend

That is what I believed.

Little need for us to follow that index then, since we are the index :-)

Have a nice week end. GLA

Have a nice week end :-)

For those in the Know (Sven/NTC etc)

What is the correlation between FTSE 350 aerospace and defence index and RR?

Is RR making up such proportions of this that RR is the dog and the index the tail?

Have a nice week end all :-)

Eventually there will be a crash, but there will be growth in the spring as always :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKtN-E9fNFQ&list=RDxKtN-E9fNFQ&start_radio=1

Sparky

That's how the brain works : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6OIJ5unsn4&list=RDE6OIJ5unsn4&start_radio=1

Various trendlines lead to the conclusion that the SP may end between 1300 and 1450 by end of the year. My guess, as bad as anyone's, is 1380.

Trends only last that long. You can't know what you don't know.

When a share price reach the level where it is lifted by love, hope and hot air there will eventually be a pull-back. A striking example can be seen in this case :

https://www.investing.com/equities/kongsberg-gruppen-asa-chart

Kongsberg, delivering stellar results, dropped violently, because the stellar results were not stellar enough. Full year reporting in Feb 26 will be a nail-biting event.

Should, I stay or should I go?

If I go there will be trouble, If I stay it may be double.

So you got to let me know.

Should I stay or should I go ? (Free interpretation of the Clash)

Cheers everybody.

Go North, go Norse.

Is RYCEY the dog or the tail ?

The drop looks like a normal mean reversal to me.

Go North, go Norse

Good on you

Running a one pony circus is never a clever way to go.

The underlying trend is unchanged taking us to about 1380 at the turn of the year.

If the tradewinds shift this may change but those assessments I leave to our head Pirate.

Flimsy daily variations are just noise on the line.

Go North, go Norse.

Maybe not always the best strategy to run a one pony circus ?

With steady winds 12 degrees northern latitude will be passed and secured during October and our Yuletide and New Year celebrations will be between 13 and 14 degrees. Still in the nice warm tropics.

Go North, go Norse

Well, maybe even 13,80 by turn of the year?

Who knows where the trade winds take us exactly, other than northwards ?

1. Large Investment Funds & Institutional Investors (Core Drivers)

Who they are: Pension funds, mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, ETFs, and large asset managers (e.g., BlackRock, Vanguard).

Role: They are typically the anchor of the shareholder base. When these investors shift from bearish to bullish (e.g., after operational improvements, debt restructuring, or strong earnings), their large, long-term allocations provide the strongest upward force.

Influence: High. Institutions often hold 70–80% of large listed companies in developed markets. Rolls-Royce is no exception.

Why now: The turnaround in cash flows, new defense and civil aerospace orders, and renewed investor confidence post-COVID made institutions re-rate the stock.

2. Momentum Funds / Quant Funds

Who they are: Hedge funds and systematic strategies that buy into rising price trends or improving fundamentals.

Role: Once the stock had positive earnings revisions and the price crossed certain technical thresholds, momentum-driven inflows kicked in.

Influence: Medium-high. They amplify the move started by fundamentals, often creating a “snowball effect.”

3. Swing Traders & Day Traders (Retail)

Who they are: Individual investors trading on platforms like IG, Trading212, Robinhood-style brokers, or even CFD spread-betting accounts.

Role: They add liquidity and can accelerate short-term price swings (volatility) rather than long-term direction.

Influence: Low-medium on the trend, but high on the noise. Retail can spike volumes around news, earnings, or social media buzz, but they rarely drive sustained valuation changes in a FTSE 100 company.

Exception: If retail sentiment converges with institutional buying, it adds “fuel” to the rally.

4. Short Sellers Covering

Who they are: Hedge funds or traders who had bet against Rolls-Royce during its struggles.

Role: As the turnaround became clear, shorts were forced to cover positions, buying shares back and adding momentum.

Influence: Medium but mostly front-loaded earlier in the recovery.

Putting it Together

Primary driver: Institutional investors (long-term, fundamentals-based).

Secondary accelerant: Momentum & quant funds (systematic inflows once the stock gained steam).

Noise & volatility: Retail swing/day traders.

Early booster: Short covering.

Think of it like this:

Institutions set the direction.

Quants/momentum funds add acceleration.

Retail & short-term traders add noise and liquidity.

No

Not ironic at all.

The most valuable (in way of winning WW2) British invention handed over to the US was the Cavity Magnetron providing for compact high resolution radars. Americas most valuable invention was the development of proximity fuses that could be used for FLAK guns. Rolls-Royce transferred manufacturing of the Merlin to the US, that also made impact on long range fighter support for bombers.

NTC

There will always be a pullback at some point, driven by the trade winds in general or even old fashioned greed leading to a bear trap.

I note that your current prediction is an increase to 12 by January 26, and then a pullback to 8-9 following full year reporting. This is obviously a plausible scenario. But as always, predictions are difficult, particularly about the future.

Then you indicate that we may see 20 in five years time. This at a time when you dismiss most novel drivers like SMR etc. on the grounds of the business cycle. (Birds on the roof, not in the bag). This leads me to think that you see 20 as a plausible price five years down the road just based on growth of the current business ? Trent time on wing, relatively new fleet of planes with RR engines so aftermarket (LTSA) growing rapidly creating a cash monsoon ? (Rycey to the Moon).

Asking for a friend.

Go North, go Norse.

And the gals ?

1380 ?

Given the dept of the previous dip, the next ceiling may be found at 1190.

Don't know. We will see.