YU25 Jul 2024 09:05
Not my research but respected poster
Yes, monthly bookings were lower in H1 2024 but the overall picture says #YU is continuing to deliver substantial growth that is now bedding in.
£46.7m is still £560m per annum + revenues picked up during the year + non-contracted revenues + meters.
As an example, FY23 delivered £29m in non-contracted revenues.
Now here is the average growth of revenues vs. contracted exit from the year before.
This year, it looks like it'll be around 25%-30% due to YU's rapid growth.
Now what happens if commodity prices pick up? Or we get another shock.
However, YU has the ability to push this much harder if they see fit which is demonstrated through the 35% increase in meters in H1 2024. A significant number that has so far been ignored.
But even at 20% we are talking c. £700m in revenues in FY25 on those 3 metrics alone.
What about their smart meter business or the upcoming progressive dividend? Or the £300m of contracted revenue that was already booked for FY25 and beyond.
5/
By YE24 YU could well be close to 100,000 meters with a +70% retention rate.
When gas prices pick up the renewals will transform YU's outlook. But by all means, let's judge the business solely on 6 months of monthly bookings performance driven by a dip in commodity prices.