RE: HUR Shareholders Today14 May 2021 18:18
For those of a technical bent, and wondering how or why RPS came up with a contact at or about 1650m rather than what turned out to be the real one of about +/- 1330m, look at fig. 7.9 page 23 of their report... tells you all you need to know, their contact was an extrapolation of an estimated (not measured) water gradient, and "confirmed" by two tiny samples one above the deed "contact" and one below.
All the real reliable oil pressure data seems to end at about 1340m - funny that.
DST analysis is a bit of an art, but clearly there are some signs that it was not quite as definitive as you might expect, with some interesting observations from RPS:
"The PLT runs demonstrated that 100% of flow came from a short 8m interval (1,368-1,376 m MD) near the top of the open hole section. As a result, no flow was established from the rest of the well, with a clear oil-brine interface identified at 1376.3 m MD (from the PLT flowing passes)- So all the flow came from about 1370m. "Oil brine interface" is also an Oil Water contact at 1376m, not a million miles from ERCE's 1330m +/- 18m. So why pick 1650m...????
If you want the smoking gun then ask yourself was deciding to place the contact at 1650m a rational analysis of the data or was there clear indications that it could potentially also be closer to 1350m.... The latter of course would significantly diminish the reserves...and of course lead to a difficult conversation with the company...