Member Info for Redtom

The trading 'plan' for this week appears to be on track. Step 1 was to buy yesterday on fall. Surprisingly the recovery at midday meant everything was sold. The subsequent drop in the afternoon allowed a large set of purchases between 4pm and 4:30pm. US stimulus package is stage 2. Futures are pricing in this deal being done Tues or poss Wed. Opening FTSE looks like about 4% up from yesterday's close. If this holds true then I'll not wait for the US announcement but sell in opening hour to realise say 3%. Problem is doing sizable transactions as they have to be broken down to smaller deals. The spreads are quite bad too as the MMs are playing silly buggers.
Sure, the markets may rise more as the stimulus is announced but I'm happy for a profit. 3/4% overnight is plenty generous for me.
Stage 3 is to try to judge the height of the rise and then to buy a big slug of a FTSE super short (SUK2) on basis that the euphoria will die down following by dire unemployment data from US on Thursday. Plan to close out shorts late Thursday or possibly Friday.
All in my honest and humble opinion. Let's see what happens! Good luck all. Tom

I'm really hoping for a stimulus announcement and a positive reaction to it. I went a bit overboard in last 30 minutes ;-)

It is 8:30am US Eastern time so 12:30 here this week.

Scoop, I'm just start to buy again in anticipation of yank stimulus. good luck whatever you choose

Scoop, a profit is a profit. Not sure if anyone should rely on my advice though ;-)

George,
So far so good. Sold my Glen and quite a few others I bought this morning. Kicking myself for not buying Shell in 990s. Hovered over the button and then cancelled.
There could be more upside in US but not convinced it will get much north of 20000. Still think any upside over next few days will be undone on Thursday.
Back in cash waiting for next opportunity.

good luck with your trade. I've done something similar albeit I did not get as good a price as you have.

Just looked back at FTSE and whilst it has been lower (eg 2002/3 & 2008/9) we are now trading at where is was in Nov 1997. So much for progress over 23 years.
Contrast the Dow which was 7600 in Nov 1997 and is now 19000 coming off nearly 30000.

I think my 'drift lower on Monday' comment is an under estimate. It will probably open down 5%+ unfortunately. But timing of US stimulus announcement could change things if it comes out today rather than late on Monday.

Fira, at the end of the day these are purely my opinion and are probably miles from reality. But I will base my trading on these. Let's see what happens!!

Hi Guys,
From my review of the markets there are 2 major events this week which could/will influence the markets in a significant way:
1) The US Senate is negotiating a huge financial stimulus. When I say huge, I mean huge. Rumours are that it could amount to 2 trillion dollars. This is unbelievably large if true. This could give the markets a significant pick-up albeit it might be yet another short term upward blip.
2) Weekly US unemployment numbers on Thursday. last week it surged to 281k which is a huge increase in ordinary times. But this Thursday the weekly number could possibly be 2,250,000+. This is an unprecedented amount and will shock the market.

My strategy is that Monday will drift lower in UK. Senate announce stimulus late on Monday which will trigger a surge in UK stocks on Tuesday. These gains will drift back a bit over Wednesday and then the reality of millions of new unemployed on Thursday will hit the markets big. I still think the Dow will fall towards 15000 and the S&P to 2000. So another volatile week ahead.
All in my humble and honest opinion.

Tom

Wickes was heaving too. Travis Perkins plc. It picked up 12% on Friday as people realised that it is going to be popular over the coming weeks

That is good news. I just bought a slug of Glen right at the close.

I totally agree with Billy that they will not cut the next divi. it would be suicide in terms of trust.

In hindsight a lot of companies (and especially Glenda) should have reduced debt rather than buy backs at relatively high SPs. There are a lot of companies with not a lot of cash reserves out there that could struggle but their shareholders wanted prior cash surpluses paid out to them via enhanced divis or buy backs. Cash rich companies like Apple are in an incredibly strong position re surviving this difficult period. Even if they have no sales for a few months they will be fine. Like you guys have said, I hope their debt renewal goes well.

Glen has been one of my favourite shares for years but I just can't work out where it is going. On one hand it looks incredibly cheap based on future demand (EVetc) but on the flip side current commodity demand (eg China) has fallen and the debt pile is huge.
To buy or not to buy...….

Ken, I totally agree. I too am in the fortunate position that I'm financially sound. Whilst I 'retired' last year, I have been working again since Xmas but I just lost my job earlier in the week as they cut all contractors. I'm fine with it but if I had a huge mortgage or rent with a young family, I would be ****ting it.
The real positive coming out of this is community spirit that is sprouting up all around the country. I now have time on my hands so I've joined a local group to deliver shopping. Its not a big deal but a lot of people doing a little adds up to a lot.
And our daughter (who is an inner London teacher) has just gone down with Covid 19 and is in isolation.

Billy, about £45k, or 9.35%. My average was around 962 and sold on average at 1052. Told my missus and she shamed me given what's is going on. We've agreed to donate £5000 to various local food banks and charities.

Thanks Day. At least I can relax again.

George,
I sold all of my RDSB this morning between 1048p and 1063p. Needed to do it in 9 or 10 tranches but now gone. Too good a profit in a short time to turn down. I may well have gone too early but my gut said take a profit in this climate and wait for the next opportunity.