RE: Assumptions and accusations8 Feb 2019 13:21
The difference between recognised revenue and cash has been long debated on this board.
When a is recognised as revenue, it does not give you the cash to pay salaries until it is paid by suppliers. The question whether recognised revenue will eventually materialise as cash has caused numerous debates about the fair value of this business.
We know that the business took cash advances from suppliers, based on expected future consumption at an agreed commission. The three challenges listed in the RNS are that:
Some of these contracts under-consumed leading to restatement of revenue, and repayment of cash.
Some contracts terminated early (industry processes exploited by competitors).
Suppliers are limiting the level of commission.
We know from the RNS that there is a £25m debt facility that needs to be refinanced in April.
We know the banks won't refinance without further investment.
We know existing equity holders have no appetite.
We know from the Sept trading update that debt was £17.5m, that order books were down and that management were blaming last year's failure to publish accounts and resulting suspension for affecting 2018 H2 sales – “The operational and commercial impact was greater and more far-reaching than the Board had expected”
Has this impact continued into 2019 H1? How will this year’s suspension affect 2019 H2?
If you were a supplier, would you be keen to pay cash advances for new business? Would you be concerned that under-consumption and early termination of existing contracts might require you to claw-back cash?
There’s a lot we don’t know, but based on what we do, in the absence of significant investment which existing investors are unwilling to provide, the business needs to find £17.5m (+- change since July) that the banks are no longer willing to finance, by mid-April.
You’re right, people are jumping to conclusions that the company’s failure to confirm that salaries will be paid in March means that they won’t, and there is no information that supports this assertion.
April, however, is a different matter entirely.