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What's to say it doesn't Berta. Have you any evidence to suggest sentiment doesn't propagate to others through reading posts on social media? Or that it prompts others to action? I'd argue there is a real correlation to rumours posted on social media and swings in the share price. One in particular here where I posted a reply from Arthur earlier in the year and the share price moved up +30%. Another was that rumour of the licence only a couple weeks back -25%. Don't tell me everyone who bought in to COPL recieved the same reply from Arthur, or those that sold searched and found that article that day on their own initiative. I know from personal experience that I have done further research and digging purely based on posts I have read on here. That is in itself reactive so it does have an effect. I know for a fact others have done the same.
Wilson, yes - I thought it important to clarify as it won't be released officially. I can't see Agamore winning against a department of the Nigerian Government, let alone combined with NNPC and Essar Nigeria. IMO that was Agamores only chance, to tackle Essar Nigeria on it's own.
Just my opinion Shibs, but I would think so. Belisce, annual results state $1.86M cash end of December. Monthly burn at $0.4M. Equals 4.7 months from start of year. Unless there has been receivables in that time, for example from Shoreline: "From time to time the Company or its joint venture partner pay for ShoreCan’s general and administrative expenses on behalf of the other partner. As at December 31, 2018, the Company had a receivable from its joint venture partner in respect of overpaid ShoreCan expenses of $0.2 million that is recorded as a long term receivable." Alternatively, there could be additional costs associated with getting these deals wrapped up and the project kicked off. Basing it solely on cash and cash equivalents, and the average yearly cash burn, we're looking at middle to end of May for zero cash.
Middle to the end of May is cash zero, based on annual results. Doesn't account for certain liabilities that COPL may need to cover so they won't go nearly as close to that. I expect funds will be in place by the end of this month
Jiving, please correct me if I'm wrong here, but I'm pretty sure what you were referring to in the August podcast was Arthur specifically talking about project financing. I believe what he said in that instance was true. And it came about because the term sheet conditions in an RNS were misinterpreted by Shareholders thinking that COPL were away to raise 20 odd million on the market, which wasn't the case. "debt financing typically requires assets as collateral or clear & certain cash flows" Exactly! Which would be possible if the project and acquisition gets the green light. That provides the security. Cash flows will have been modelled as part of the PSC. We were also told the service provider wanted to test the cost model earlier in the year due to lower oil prices. ShoreCan will have repayment models ready for the government and the various stakeholders. It might also explain why a raise hasn't yet occurred when it has been discussed and worried over since the 2019 update, about 3 months ago, when the price was significantly better. Also, might just be a coincidence, but we are close to agreeing what is in essence a loan... Surely the smart thing to do would be just to increase the loan? To me it's an obvious and relatively simple solution to our predicament. Anything to fundamentally stop that happening? As for today's action precluding a raise... I count about £20-30k sells, the same in buys. No after hours trades. Don't think so.
It's not blown out at all. I'm not aware of tr1s being issued as part of any dilutions, only intentional selling / purchasing. Thanks Alexios. That could explain it then. Esski, your question may go unanswered then. I don't know how a list of Major Shareholders would get updated if there's no notification for it.
I was under the impression that tr1 notifications were compulsory by FCA rules. Is that incorrect? Historically, COPL have had very little tr1s because there has been very little shareholders with >3% of issued capital. The only one I know of is Rosseau. You can believe that Morningstar report if you like but there is very noticeable errors in it. Why a 0.82% is considered a major holding is one for a start.
As a major shareholder (i.e. >3% of issued capital) We would of gotten a tr1 notice if Rosseau crossed certain threshold, up or down. I question the validity of Morningstar. The only major shareholder noted has 0.82% or ~20M. I bet a few on this board have more than that.
Not exactly true Alb1. I believe Arthur has about 4 or 5% if I remember correctly. He took about £100k in the last placing to maintain his stake. The others don't have nearly as much. However all have a lot of Options at higher prices which if diluted significantly from this level will be worth a lot less than they did. So there is definitely a benefit for limited / no dilution for COPL employees also. In any case, I suspect we won't have to wait top long until we find out what Arthur has planned regarding funding.
Bonum, why wouldn't he try to raise sentiment? The company has been attacked and ridiculed (sometimes understandably so) for the past 6 months due to various reasons. Often false rumours are being treated as gospel and the share price has suffered for it. Even when those rumours are quashed, the share fails to recover. The sentiment is so low that I would be worried if Arthur wasn't trying to do something about it. The fact we are valued at less than £3M with an imminent drill and kick-off of a field development project shows what negative sentiment we have. Why on earth wouldn't a CEO try to promote that? "suggest that a significantly dilutive fundraising is being worked behind the scenes." No it doesn't. Unless you mean to say that there are certain shareholders that are privy to Arthur's plans. It's going down because yet again there are misinformed rumours by new posters 'warning' shareholders. It is very obvious to me what you are trying to do. Wonder what all these new posters will do once funding is sorted. Slink off with a tidy sum of profit I'd suggest
It's certainly an option Harry and should be considered as a possibility. It's the same concept as the service provider funding, the term sheet we got last August, or the performance bond. These institutions and organisations stump up money for the provision of deferred payments later down the line.
I'd take that bet bigbear - I don't think it's as nailed on as everyone thinks. I was in touch with Art last week and voiced my concerns over a placement / equity raise. He's got a plan. And the interviews alluded to other financing options that are being considered other than equity (e.g. placement through the market or CLNs). Debt financing seems the obvious one to me, and appears to be an option.