Member Info for Oil_invetor

Current cash of £7m. Cenkos forecasts are for a £4.5m cash burn in 2022 leaving cash of £2.4m at the end of 2022.

More guaranteed revenue in 2023 so cash burn should be a lot less that £4.5m

The £2.4m at the end of 2022 could get them most of the way though 2023, maybe even to profitability.

Cenkos have said they might get through to profitability with the current cash.

In any case at least 18 months of cash left.

Look at the holdings RNS on 20 Dec.

They sold over 1% of the company and went below 8% on 13 Dec.

Look at the chart - they took the chance to sell some when it spiked to 4p. They sold those at a loss.

They’ve now picked up more at 3.5p so can sell those at a profit.

The problem is Monecor who have 20m shares to unload.

They sold down before when it got to 4p in mid Dec, even though they bought at 5p.

I think the share price will yo-yo between 3p and 4p until they are out. May take some time. Don’t get sucked in.

No, they didn’t go on sale originally, along with block 8F.

8F was released recently and sold out. The others are still to be released.

Don’t think there will be any issues at all selling out though.

6D,6E and 14F still to come too I think. These may be VIP.

Ticket sales going well and should be over 30k now.

I’ve been tracking the sales of tickets closely.

They are releasing new blocks with each group.

I think they’ve still got the following blocks to release:

3, 3 5, 5, 5 7, 42F, 42G, 2A, 31, 31 29, 30A

In the previous update issued on 26th Oct they were forecasting $119m NOI for the next 12 months.

They are now forecasting $184m for 2022 and 2023 combined?

Why the large drop in forecast NOI?

I made the point a few weeks ago that the decrease in Alberta gas prices would mean a material decrease to the $119m figure. But was shot down. Looks like I was right.

Pretty decent figures but was hoping for more cash at the end of 2022. Other oilers with better post-capex cash flows out there. Look at PTAL.

Also, what happened to the debt raise?

https://twitter.com/henrik115/status/1469201335711154177?s=21

Great news

They need to pay $400k as their part of the $1.75m financing costs.

Where’s that coming from? Placing?

Hold my hands up on that. Made a mistake when signing up and can’t change now.

We all make typos.

I think I3E is good value, I just don’t think they’ll hit the revised NOI guidance at current energy prices.

I have a spreadsheet but there are a lot of unknowns around the exact amounts for opex, royalties, transportation and processing costs. Do you have these figures?

Clearly the most accurate figures for NOI are going to be those given by the company.

The gas prices has come down substantially from the gas prices they used in their latest NOI projections. It’s a simple as that.

The revised NTM NOI figure of $119m given in the 25th October RNS was based on 13 Oct strip pricing.

It is therefore based on high gas prices. On 13 Oct the Alberta gas price was $4.7.

From the rns:

‘Based on 13 October 2021 strip pricing, i3 forecasts 2021 full-year NOI of approximately USD 65.7mm and NTM NOI from 1 October 2021 of USD 119.1mm. The increase from the previous NTM NOI guidance of USD 94.8mm announced on 16 August 2021 is principally due to strong operational performance and strengthening commodity price forecasts’

The Alberta gas price is now $3.4.

Therefore I think the NTM NOI of figure will have come down substantially from the $119m figure given on 25th Oct.

Alberta natural gas prices have come down a lot since the start of November.

Now under $3.5, compared with over $5 at the start of November.

https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices

This will have a negative impact on the 12 month NOI figure the company gave at the end of October. If opex is $2, the price reduction will have halved their NOI on unhedged gas.

Probably explains some of the share price fall recently.

https://proycontra.com.pe/sos-bretana-esta-que-arde/

Locals stopped a barge on the river apparently.

Seems the president has changed his mind on nationalisation. Are oil assets safe?

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL1N2RL2OW?

Peru's Castillo urges Congress to draft bill to nationalize gas sector

LIMA Oct 25 (Reuters) - Peru's socialist president, Pedro Castillo, urged Congress on Monday to draft a bill for the "nationalization" of Peru's natural gas sector, undoing previous statements in which he said he would not seek to nationalize parts of the economy.

In remarks broadcast on government-owned TV Peru, Castillo said he wanted "to draft a joint bill with Congress regarding the nationalization of (the natural gas sector)."

"It is necessary to give Peruvians what the people have produced," Castillo added.

This isn’t good:

‘BRETANA: Station 95 with suspended production’

https://www.facebook.com/501896603296148/posts/2042352185917241/

Translation of picture:

AMAZON OIL CIRCUIT: INDIGENOUS BROTHERS IN FIGHTING Indigenous organizations of the Amazonian oil circuit demand that the government address the closing of gaps and a new environmental social contract
MANSERICHE: Station 5 taken, without provisions or production
BRETANA: Station 95 with suspended production
CURARAY: Barçazas from Perenco taken and immobilized
MARAÑÓN DATEM: «Road blocked Saramiriza - Bagua
AMAZONAS: Road blocked Imaza - Condorcanqui

Natives keep oil station closed in Loreto:

https://diariolaregion.com/web/nativos-mantienen-cerrada-estacion-petrolera-en-loreto/

Doesn’t look like being resolved anytime soon. Long list of demands and they want to see the president.

They’ve held station 5 for 19 days now so Station 1 storage must be about full by now.

This doesn’t look good.

https://larepublica.pe/economia/2021/10/19/comunidades-nativas-exhortan-a-petrotal-cerrar-sus-operaciones-ante-falta-de-dialogo

Translation:

The Indigenous Association for the Development and Conservation of Lower Puinahua agreed to radicalize their struggle by not receiving any solution from the State regarding their demands.

This Tuesday, through a letter, the Lower Puinahua Indigenous Development and Conservation Association (Aidecobap) made the decision to radicalize its fight against the Peruvian State, to the point that they exhorted Petrotal (operator of Lot 95) to stop its operations completely.

"We agreed to make the decision that as of this date, (Petrotal) will close its operations in its entirety until the State deigns to dialogue with this indigenous organization of Puinahua," details a letter signed by various indigenous leaders of the Villa Gran Tierra.

Along these lines, they recall that "the death of our three brothers and ten wounded by gunshots will not go unpunished."

It is worth emphasizing that this occurs in the context of the uncertainty about who will take the reins of the Vice Ministry of Hydrocarbons, which to date is still led by Enrique Bisetti.