NUMIS / THG Timeline as I see it (long sorry)18 Nov 2021 11:08
June 2020: THG, formerly The Hut Group, publicly shares details of its financial performance ahead of an upcoming stock market float. Sales rose by 24% in 2019 to hit £1.1 billion and gross profits rose 22% to £511 million.
September 2020: THG is valued at £5.4 billion as it lists on the London Stock Exchange at 500p per share. Brokers at Numis who worked on the IPO take their share of an estimated £50m in fees. People familiar with the situation say that Numis did not receive a proportion of the additional discretionary fees awarded to bankers in relation to the IPO, which one source said was because THG executives were unhappy with the work undertaken by the bank. THG subsequently appointed Barclays, Citi Jefferies as its corporate brokers. One source said Numis executives and THG's management had "fallen out" over the float.
January 2021: Shares peak at 837p, more than 60% above the float price.
13 October 2021: Numis, which had been bearish about the stock, slashed their price target of 230p with a ‘reduce’ recommendation, down from 520p in September.
26 October 2021: THG posts a 38% rise in revenues to £507.8 million (surpassing their ambitious targets) in the three months to September and increases growth expectations for Ingenuity. Simon Bowler at Numis flags the “worsening momentum and worsening cash profile of the core businesses.”
11 November 2021: Numis issue a memo to hundreds of institutional clients alleging “accounting irregularities” and accused THG of “a lack of clarity”. The memo in question also implied the group’s shares were worth 21 per cent less than their trading price at the time it was written and recommended that those in receipt of the memo reduced their stakes in the group.
ASSUMPTION HERE IS THAT SOMEONE IN RECEIPT OF THE MEMO BLOWS THE WHISTLE AND FLAGS POTENTIAL FOUL PLAY.
12 November 2021: Within 24 hours of the original private note to clients on 11 November, the broker sent a follow-up memo that suggested “misrepresentations of some of the commentary made by the team” and removed the mention of “irregularities in accounting”.
15 November 2021: Numis sent its clients an additional note that apologised for “some inaccuracies, which we attempted to clarify in a revised email to this same distribution group on 12 November at 12.37pm”. “The first email said with regard [to] THG that ‘there are some irregularities in accounting,’ a phrase which was removed from the second email,” the note said. “This terminology does not represent the views of Numis’ Research or the views of our Research analysts, and we would like to set the record straight that Numis has not identified, and does not believe, THG to have any accounting irregularities.”
TODAY: THG share price sits at a near all time low despite exceeding all IPO forecasts. The share price has dropped c. 79% from all time highs and THG are now entering their busiest season. The misleading defamatory statements by Numis are not accidental - in
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