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"Based on the recent perforation programme, there are indications of additional gas production volumes; the results will be reported upon testing completion and analysis of the results"
"The Mnazi Bay Joint Venture Partners have identified a number of leads on the Mnazi Bay licence and are evaluating the prospects as potential drilling targets"
Ouch, this really hurts. Never mind that it utterly contradicts her "assurances" a little while ago, that any added reserves were "not material" and that the operator was certainly not planning to drill any new wells...
Disgusting. After such a sad and highly controversial vote bragging about the wonderful asset WEN had feels like a kick in the stomach.... Amazing that they dare to put this in an RNS. Take your 3 mln bonus and get lost!!!!
https://vimeo.com/804049094/bc743714b4
Genel starts at 24 mins
Presented at the "SpareBank 1 Energy Conference":
https://wp-gulfkeystone-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/03/SB1-Energy-Conference-v2.pdf
https://vimeo.com/804049094/bc743714b4
Take-over approved. They got away with it, once again. WEN is a textbook example how the BOD can optimally bypass and ingore the shareholders. I'm gutted, but time to move on. It's done. All the best folks.
I fully agree! The only thing that truly matters looking forward is that WEN reduces its G&A costs. Bob McBean will finally be off the payroll for good, starting 1 July, so that alone saves 250k/yr already. More important even, I think that his departure will chance the direction of the company with greater focus on creating shareholder value. I think G&A will almost certainly drop further after that.
Regarding the dividend: net cash increased from 22.8 mln at the end of 2021, to approx. 31 mln at the end of 2022, an increase of about 8 mln. 2P reserves have actually gone up this year (no surprise given the highly conservative CPR). Even if G&A is again around 7 mln this year, I don't see a reason why the company would reduce the dividend. There is no need to keep accumulating money.
Having said all that, I'm not looking forward to hold these shares for another ~5 years (worst case), so on the one hand I have to admit that I would be disappointed if the deal falls through, despite my No vote. On the other hand you don't sell your house with a 25-50% discount to the neighbours, just because it is convenient.... This company will have exactly the same value a year from now, 2P reserves will go up once again I expect, so it's all a matter of time....
OzSurfer, Yes, I voted No, and I think we'll easily get 5mln additional votes. What I'm not sure about is if Fidelity will really vote against the deal as well...
Very disappointing that M&P won't raise the bid. It could still be a tight vote though; hopefully Fidelity will stick to their plans to vote against the take-over. Management has done everything they could possibly do to talk down the value of the company, so hopefully they will resign if the deal is blocked. No doubt that M&P will develop the field further the next few years, I think 130 MMscf/d in 2025 is definitely possible. I'm happy to hold on for another 5 years!
Quite a resume this guy has...
https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/the-rise-and-fall-of-a-us-oilman-in-iraq
Also from a year ago, but still very interesting background info I would say!
well, you're right of course that the future capex assumptions have a big impact on NPV, just as the oil price.
I don't see though why it matters if " GKP 1" went bankrupt; a CPR is just a valuation report. And it is an independent report. Why has a lot of cash been paid out? Was that as G&A or as capex?
in 2016, NPV (@ 10%) was 1089 mln US$, with a gross 2P volume of 622 MMbbl. According to the latest presentation gross 2P volumes are now 473 mln bbl, wich would correspond with an NPV of about 828 mln US$. Including the 151 mln net cash, NAV is about 980 mln US$. Completely ignoring the remaining resources of course, that are substantial...
Pretty attractive I would say...
What is actually the problem with the CPR? I went through the 2016 Shaikan CPR (see link) and it looks pretty solid to me. Where can I find the newer ones?
https://www.gulfkeystone.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/erce_gkp_cpr_2016-08-26.pdf
I''ve updated the spreadsheet, see below. Assuming that all share purchases since the take-over announcement on 8 December (~47 mln) are “reserved” for M&P, and FID votes against the deal, we'll need between 11-26 mln votes from PI’s to block the vote.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DI48Cy4X48MYQAadGcZ-liLfWtwTB6DexGCyVjHfrCM/edit?usp=sharing
Very interesting news, PI's can definitely block the take-over now. I think M&P will raise the bid... .so my vote is a NO as well...
Not sure about about that. Looking back at the last 10 payments:
GKP: 4/3, 4/4, 27/4, 25/5, 22/6, 15/7, 25/8, 18/10, 11/11, 26/1/23
GENL: 11/3, 11/4, 9/5, N.A., 27/6, 26/7, 2/9, 18/10, 1/12, waiting
- GENL never gets paid before GKP (maybe because they are not the operator?)
- GENL payments are on average 9 days later than GKP payments
- GENL received 2 payments less than GKP (if Jan payment is included).
Could it be that KRG is dissatisfied with GENL's performance, especially after essentially the failure of the Taq Taq and Sarta developments?
Another article (from 27 Jan) about Somaliland that mentions Genel:
https://theconversation.com/somalilands-oil-find-could-reset-the-regional-balance-heres-how-197995
well well Astrol, do you now want to unite the shareholders and vote against the deal? Or do you actually want to support it? Surely, you must be one happy shareholder... Your favourite management has sold their "co-operatorship" for an excellent price, especially if you got in below 20p. And such a modest self-rewarding even, all in-line with normal business practices. No doubt you must have some venerating Norwegian sayings for that.
Unfortunately there's nothing to win any longer. The cost recovery pool will be depleted soon, so cash-flow will drop by about 10 mln US$/year. Shareholders won't recover the incredible amount of money that management has wasted the last few years, even if G&A was finally reduced to a minimum. ~$60mm spent on G&A over the last 8 years, while essentially achieving nothing at all for shareholders, that's the key achievement of this management.
It's game over. Agree with the deal and but wait with selling and receive 32.5p for your shares. Time to move on I'm afraid. All the best.
Cliff of course! ??