Conservative.....27 Sep 2024 08:45
Analyst John Stevenson estimated that THG Consumer could generate £2 billion in revenue, £138 million in EBITDA and £45 million in pre-tax profit by its 2025 fiscal year.
Ingenuity was valued at between £200 million and £300 million, based on a multiple of 8-10 times 2025 EBITDA.
At this lower amount, this "implies" a valuation of only £500 million for THG Consumer if the demerger occurs, Stevenson said, suggesting a 17% free cash flow yield, a metric that measures the return a company generates in the form of free cash flow relative to its market cap.
But based on the average free cash flow yield in the wider UK retail and consumer sector of nearer 6%, this would imply a THG Consumer valuation of around £1.4 billion, the analyst concluded.
"The initial outcome is likely to be somewhere in the middle, but whichever way we cut the numbers, we expect the demerger to release the underlying value here," he said, reiterating a 'buy' rating and a target price of 141p.