Member Info for LTbeliever

@Laura, IMO u will soon be proved right; but even if not, buying at these levels is not so risky, considering the upside Vs downside; some people talked about going down by another 15-20% - if it does, how long will it stay there, and more importantly, what's the upside? Co is still making min 5mln of Sales, covers its overheads, has a high GMargin and lots of projects on the go (though having a long gestation period).

GLA, DYOR.

Yes, instant profit if everyone could have sold their extra shares at 0.30 w/o impacting the SP. It was still risky, as the SP could have dropped in the interim period. Now we are much nearer to the decision and most of us here expect a positive outcome, (99% chance of good news?).

A bit strange; back in early Nov, the Placing was oversub. by X times and everyone was unhappy not to be able to buy more @0.20. Now, almost 3 months "closer" to the FDA decision, and the SP again at 0.20, nobody is buying.

To explain "this mini revival" - unless there are big trades pending?

Yes, good progress; let's see how the SP reacts by eoFebruary (when AFS is released);

@SDad, why should traders - re your Germans' question - buy every supplier they have? Their model is asset light, they make profit from price discrepancies, they don't need to vertically integrate. Even Nestle don't invest in cocoa plantations in WAfrica. IMO

Also important is that on 30 June 2025, Co had Stock+Creditors of appx 2mln Vs Debtors of 800k; so, this is in addition to Net Cash.

It'd be nice to know the name of the partner! "A recent visit to the partner’s facilities in the US confirms the progress being made."

Who made the visit?

If the Co and/or Directors buy at these levels, it'll be a huge vote of confidence; especially the Co signaling it has the available cash. IMO

RNS says 30 Jan as the "date threshold crossed" i.e. Dowgate sold 210.000 shares on (or before?) this date. Given the volumes on the 30th, it's safe to assume that they sold 1.4% of the Co shares last Friday; silver lining is, big seller out of the way (risk is - are they selling more?).

Average P/E has been around 10, so on a NProfit of 1mln, SP should be around 100p? It will get there.

TFactory, 3.6mln at y/e 2025 (june 2025), 2.3 mln in 2024; even at 5mln Sales @90% margin, that's still enough to cover these.

Higher SP, smaller dilution; it doesn't mean existing (or all) holders will participate (or be given the chance to take part).

No point in arguing about the past IMO; The Co will make do with the little cash it has, for as long as possible; if the FDA hits soon, it'd raise at around the same time; if it announces a p/ship deal too, even better; we have 1 month or so I reckon before any placing is needed and I am sure the Co is already in discussions (hence the sellers, in the know, driving the SP down to 0.20); back in April, SP was 0.11, jumped to 0.14 with the 30 April RNS, dropped to 0.08 for Placing, then jumped to 0.16 on the 28th May (i.e. BEFORE the RNS of the 29th May); this shows that the SP will move before the RNS IMO.

Yes but the main RNS was on 30 April, when the EMA gave the ODD designation; on 29 May it was only ratified by the EU Commission.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NFX/confirmation-of-european-orphan-drug-designation-oo12g0wm5i9qgns.html

Quite possible, because those who wanted out, mostly did so at the opening bell (hence the huge drop at open).

FFX, wasn't the ODD RNS on 30 April and the Placing RNS on 22 May i.e. AFTER, not before, the ODD confirmation?

Just bought 2000 @73.3 (on top of 7000 earlier at sub-71p).

And since 2022, the Co has invested a lot of money in expansion, staff, new collaborations etc, with more projects on the go.

Last time SP was c70p was in Oct. 2022 when both Rev and Net Equity were less than half today's numbers (end June 2025). Overreaction IMO

Big_K "they should just do another 250k raise", IMO they are waiting for as long as they can because they ideally want to combine this small fund raise with the FDA news (if positive, obviously) as the SP will / should be higher and thus the dilution lower; why dilute by 5% on zero news and a negative sentiment, instead of eg 2-3% dilution on a positive outcome? They have cash for 2 months, so if no FDA news in Febr, funds should be raised in March IMO. But selling at 0.20 out of fear of a fund raise is a bit irrational, given that news can drop any day now IMO.