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Looking at the trading patterns and time zones, it looks like US are bears on BTC currently, however nice to see the bulls coming back! - Let’s hope our friends in Asia and UAE are bulls and we wake up to a nice green candle! :-)

Having dug a little deeper and gone direct to source, TLDR is don’t expect any payments going out today or any official announcements from Mt Gox!

On Oct 20th it was announced “the confirmation order is expected to become final and binding in approximately one month from today” which is where the Nov 20th date came about.
Source: https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20211020_announcement_en.pdf

However, earlier this week was announced “on November 16, 2021, the Rehabilitation Plan became final and binding.” it then goes on to say “An announcement will be made to rehabilitation creditors on the details of the specific timing, procedures, and amount of such repayments.” but no date is given.
Source: https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20211116_announcement_en.pdf

In summary, Nov 20th in a non-event, some of the creditors have not even been allowed to apply yet and payout of the BTC is not expected until Q1 | Q2 2022 (https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/bitcoin-heads-worst-week-months-mt-gox-payouts-loom-2021-11-19/)

"Where’s the volume for btc ? that’s the driver in the end."

Tommorow the bears will cash in thier Put Options and buy Call Options, once done, they can close their BTC Shorts and the volume will follow. I also suspect that our friend Mr Musk will tweet something about using some of the money he's raised selling TSLA to buy BTC and possibly DOGE (as many of his production line staff own that coin).

Fortune favors the brave. Having a exit strategy is key as BTC will dump at some point, along with the miners. Trying to time Buys/Sells is hit & miss in my experience, I've had lots more success over the last 10 years by swing trading. I think the market will easily take BTC to around $100k before the end of the year, so I'm not at all concerned about the price dips this week.

I predict BTC will bounce at 55k (or high 54's) and then move sideways until tomorrow at 4pm.

Why? 55k has technical support and the CME options expire tommorow at 4pm, the bears want to keep the price low until that time to take their profits. Shorts are up 51%+ again today, once they start buying them back (possibly more so over the w/e after MtGox news comes out that they will be released next year (or slowly....)

That's my predection, I expect a big bounce on Monday of the miners.

This looks to be a credible reason for the BTC price to be held down (as evidenced by the 47% shorts yesterday).

https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-why-bears-hope-to-pin-bitcoin-under-60k-ahead-of-friday-s-1-1b-options-expiry

I'm suspect after the options expire, BTC will turn back around as the shorts are closed, the bears switch their trades around and BTC jumps up!?

Some useful links

Shows movement of MtGox coins (if/when they start)
https://cryptoquant.com/overview/btc-exchange-flows/6928?window=day

BTCUSD Shorts
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDSHORTS

Just been looking at the Mt Gox news article and BTCUSDSHORTS, no idea if it’s related but someone wants to keep BTC in the 60k area. As soon as BTC started rising around midday, the shorts shot up lowering it back down again.

From what I’ve read, Mt Gox will be “finalised” on 20th November, however when the 140k BTC will get distributed is unlikely to be straight away, it will take some time legally and logistically to distribute to the right accounts etc (speculation is Q1 2022].

I was considering reducing my other miner positions (all in profit), but as I don’t think this bull run is over yet, have decided to keep them and see what happens over the w/e.

I would disregard that $1200 price for the S17, the same supplier is also advertising S19’s for the same price!! (I.e. these are just headline pricing to get people to contact them)

https://m.made-in-china.com/product/Most-Powerful-Bitmain-Asic-Miner-Bitmain-S19-PRO-Antminer-S19-PRO-110t-with-PSU-914782065.html

Sorry if this has already been discussed / posted: I just watched Blonity’s interview with DMG’s CEO and thought it gave a good inside view of the industry, worth watching whichever miner(s) you’re invested in!

https://youtu.be/_Pbc3vwhEp0

Key points for me were;

- $80/TH is current rate for rigs (=$8,500 for a S19J)
- Hosting is a no-no (due to more profit self mining)
- Immersion has supply chain & design issues (not yet a mass market option)
- DMG are not looking to dilute in the short term

(I’m not currently invested in DMG but they are on my radar)

@JavierP "it is to my underdranding that 200mw is fully funded"

Riot recently gave some pricing and rig numbers; 46k S19J's can be accomodated in 200MW, which costs approx $253mln

Argo have raised approx $193 (IPO, Galaxy, Senior Notes - less expenses and payments), leaving $60mln difference - The question is will the lower cost S17 vs S19 price balance this out or not? ... Then how will they pay operational costs over the next 2-3 quarters?

@Rams82 "So now the news has confirmed no dilution is coming anytime soon"

Today's RNS was good, $57mln will cover the recent 20,000 rigs (along with the IPO funds), however we still have to find/fund the remaining rigs to fill the rest of the 200MW so I wouldn't rule out dilution just yet!

After watching Riot’s CEO interview last night, it’s clear they are much further advanced than Argo in Texas, with similar scale of infrastructure. It’s well worth watching on YT!

I too was looking to put my ex-Arb funds into RIOT (I already hold a bunch). Also on my radar is BITF (which is predicted to raise 5x from current SP). Both of these are currently raising funds via a ATM currently, which is why the price is flat currently, but nearing the end of the raise.

I however will wait until tomorrow / red day as there’s talk of a market pullback imminently, before the next leg up.

After watching the Q3 results meeting earlier and seeing how my other mining investments are performing, I took the decision to sell the majority of my ARB shares today. The key for me in todays presentation was twofold;

1) It sounded like the team are struggling to get hold of more mining rigs in the timescales. Moving to 'second-hand' machines and the scraps that the others don't wont. ePIC was mentioned but not enthusiastically. That is a huge red flag for me.

2) The language PW used around equity raises suggests to me there will be another one in the not too distant future to pay for more miners. It was mentioned multiple times that capital was the limiting factor and Nasdaq was the source. Another red flag.

3) The body language of the entire team on the call was very negative, everyone looked downbeat / unhappy. It didn't look like a winning team atm.

Having said all that, I still think Argo will make it a success, however I don't think that will be reflected in the share price until Q2 2022. I therefore sold most of my stake (for a very small profit) and will look to invest in other miners over the next few days as I expect there to be a pullback as they are all rising too fast.

GL all.

Just noticed that we now have a new hire; Tom Divine is Argo's new VP of Investor Relations, based in Houston Texas.

twitter.com/tddivine

www.linkedin.com/in/tom-divine-67b6a813

@600Thieves “ So, in December 2020 $170m bought 70,000 high-performance bitcoin miners from Bitmain!”

… BTC was less than 20k at that time! - at todays prices, 70k rigs would be around $385mln

BTC +6.22%

HUT +16%
GLXY +11.7%
HIVE +10%
MARA +10.55%
ANY +9%
RIOT +6.36%
ARBK +4.64%
BITF +4.56%

That was a historic moment when BTC broke it's ATH, watching all the shorts being closed and the price beating previous all time highs... That, for me, is a turning point in which I think will provide the FOMO the miners need.

Fingers crosssed, BTC ATH's start appearing regularly in mainstream news over the next few days! - Google Trends is a good indicator of sentiment and if we see a good spike up, you can be sure the miner prices will follow! (as they did back in Feb)

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=%2Fm%2F05p0rrx

@K3VMC "PIs selling cheaply, still. They just don’t get it!" - "I still think they won’t learn from it."

... Maybe it's you that needs to learn? - As just one example, Hut8 has gone UP around +40% since 23 Sept whereas Arb has gone DOWN around -19% !!

Money sat idle is not very good for investors, SPs going down when BTC is going up is even worse for a miner in this industry!

That article contains some interesting data which can be applied to Argo, namely:

- 46,000 S19J’s can be hosted in 200MW immersion facility
- $253mln approx needed to pay for miners, assuming $5,500 per rig
- 5.98 EH/s of hash power added, making a total of 7.68 EH

K3,

There is/was a common misconception that Argo Directors purchased shares/ADRs during the IPO, the prospectus is very misleading and as a result I beleive has mislead investors.

That to me is a big deal. Those same directors had inside information, not only that it was a 30% discount but what funding will be necessary to kit out Texas with miners. I am now pretty certain they didn't buy any, no RNS, nothing in the prospectus, they *have* to disclose purchase as soon as reasonable practicle. Why didn't they buy? Perhaps they know what's coming down the road? - Directors buying or not is a good insight into a company!

So, its great that BTC has gone up, along with all my other holdings in miners, that nor any other news doesn't distract me from finding out the facts about this, I'm happy to multi-task.... Good luck with your investments and your continued education on the stock markets!