Member Info for LondonIrish

it’s been a terrible year for the TGR stock price and I’m not so sure there won’t be more unpleasant surprises as we run into another massive tropical storm season in Madagascar.

I’ll definitely top up but not at these prices given a global recession is lurking.

Sitting on a very big loss here and stupidly averaged down and down and it killed me but I'm still positive about ASOS and it's potential. I also like what they're doing around sustainability, we need more of this.

I've been adding and probably will add some more at these levels.

All these fuel cap checks will be arriving shortly and with China opening up and goods moving more freely things will be looking up soon.

Hunkered down here for a long hold.

Great to see China and Kazakhstan building closer relations, this is Xi’s first overseas trip.

Good signs for stability and with the FAR operations so close to the Chinese borders export options directly to China will be vital.

SP rerate will follow. Patience. I’m adding

https://amp.dw.com/en/chinese-leader-xi-jinping-meets-kazakh-leader-on-first-trip-since-pandemic/a-63113935

Looks great from here. Topped up

https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/bushveld-minerals-share-price-forecast-march-2022/

Averaging down. Seems a good time to start adding, lots of news expected soon

When was the last placing. Was it last April? I’m assuming with the delays in ramping up production due to the cyclones we might need another fundraise soon.

I haven’t seen any revenue positive deals in the last few months that will have a positive contribution.

Clearly the market is nervous about contagion beyond Russia to Kazakhstan. Given the latter called in former to quell popular protests in December you can see why FAR is dropping like EVRAZ.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we drop further. This is becoming a very risky part of the world to be invested.

Is anyone adding?

So since the RNS after Cyclone Ana, which reduced graphite forecasts by 20% for 2022, we’ve had persistent weakness.

Another 3 major cyclones have hit since. I suspect market is concerned that more news is coming here.

https://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/news/battered-madagascar-braces-for-cyclone-emnati-the-4th-so-far-this-year-e9dd5847-17ee-4bea-92ef-5e3d26cc1ec8

The other stuff in yesterday’s is incidental to the bottom line hence the sell off.

Reassuring news about mining activities in Mozambique and Madagascar will help.

I would be cautious adding atm seems the trend is down.

Keen to add at these prices or will it drop a little more before news propels us higher? Hmm

A second super strong Cyclone Batsirai is now approaching Madagascar with another forming behind it. Cyclones come with territory here and with both projects are right in the danger zone for cyclones.

For TGR, with all their experience in Madagascar not to factor in delays from seasonal cyclone activity into their guidance, is disappointing. These delays can be factored in and it does seem TGR might be developing a reputation for over promising and under delivering on their numbers.

Can we expect further RNSs about these new cyclones? What damage has been caused to the two projects affected by the first cyclone or is it just a logistical issue?

With all the capital they've raised and promises made to shareholders we deserve more accurate forecasts.

SP down almost 10% yesterday. Clearly holders are not impressed. Hopefully they've been over cautious with this RNS and will be able to surprise us later in the year with production upgrades, however I'd be nervous there could be additional bad news coming.

Added a bit. Good company, oversold. Once they work through the supply chain issues in the coming months it will be off to the races!

Hmm, so I'd say there is a 50:50 chance it might get postponed for a year as Boris looks for positive news. This might actually benefit the sp to rise further. Unless of course Russia/Ukraine derails everything.

Added on Friday at 32p. It’s a no brainer, they seem to be executing the disposal strategy on schedule.

Lots of upside/rerating to come here with new lower debt levels and a clear focus on profitability - might add again if prices remain at these levels for much longer. DYOR

https://www.reuters.com/business/chevron-kicks-off-oil-industrys-fourth-quarter-results-with-miss-2022-01-28/

Does add a bit of uncertainty for majors BP and Shell ahead of earnings and then add in Russia and a potential recession in Germany and you have a big mess for my wee head to understand.

I have added more Shell in the last week and reduced my BP.

All looking better at HMSO after that RNS. I've added and expect this to rise further as analyst coverage gets going again. Shore Capital coverage pending - announced yesterday.

In the last 12 months JP Morgan is up 12%, GS up 24% and LLOY up 50%. US banks are down about 10% this year.. oh and the analysts aren't really pushing their SP forecasts.

Lloyds is starting to look a wee bit overbought? Any rise above 53p and I'm a seller for sure.

Good positive RNS. Once this expansion is complete in June we should hopefully see some further rises in the SP assuming we don't have any more unexpected fund raising.

In the background, any positive news on the Graphene products and joint ventures with companies like RR in the interim will propel things higher much more quickly.

We're all following the buildup closely and I'm pretty certain that Putin will go in, it's absolutely his plan and you can see it all happening in slow motion on the ground.

It will only be a war if NATO respond, which I doubt they will. Ukraine will mostly likely pull back to a new border line set out by the Russians.

The West is not united at all on this issue. It is likely that after this we might see a more coordinated approach to supporting Ukraine. Sanctions on oil and gas would be a domestic disaster for western governments, if it happens it won't be for long.

Any sanctions affecting oil and gas exports to the EU would surely send the oil price into the stratosphere. Given that Macron has an election year, Boris is in all sorts of inflation bother and Biden is seeing the mid terms ahead I'd be very surprised to see sanctions that restrict oil supply.

BP does seem a bit more risky though in the short term, which could be a buying opportunity but whilst the tension builds up, I am considering reducing my stake in BP and increasing Shell.

I'd buy Total but I'm pretty sure that within my Fidelity pension wrap you can't buy non-UK stocks.